Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
327 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...WHILE A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ACTIVE WX EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN SC THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WE STRONGLY DESTABILIZED
THIS MORNING UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOW/MID 70S DEWPOINTS
WHILE MID-LEVEL DRYING HAS RESULTED IN GOOD DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL.
WE ALSO COOLED OFF BY ALMOST TWO DEGREES AT 500 MB AND RESULTING
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DROPPED BY ABOUT 2000 FT. THUS WE ARE NOW
SEEING QUITE A FEW REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS WITH CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING. SEVERE TSTM WATCH
CONTINUES UNTIL 8 PM FOR ALL BUT THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA.
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF EARLY THIS EVENING AFTER USING UP THE
AIRMASS WITH DRY WX OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PRESENT ITSELF THIS WEEKEND AS
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHILE MID LVL
RIDGING MAINTAINS A STRONG HOLD OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
WITH THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES IN PLACE...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PERSIST THIS WEEKEND AND RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR AN
INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE EACH AFTERNOON ALONG WITH PULSE TYPE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EACH EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH SUNSET EACH EVENING GIVEN WEAK MID/UPPER LVL
SUPPORT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
PULSE TYPE CONVECTION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW OVER THE PERIOD.

IN GENERAL...HAVE MAINTAINED A 20 POP FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...WITH AN
INCREASING TREND TO 20-30 POPS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS PWATS
APPROACH 2 INCHES OVER THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD
OCCUR OVER INLAND AREAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN DIURNAL IN NATURE GIVEN WEAK MID/UPPER LVL
SUPPORT. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL ALSO REMAIN LOWER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. OVERALL TEMPS WILL REMAIN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY...WITH 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
LOW 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SHOW SUBTLE HIGH FALLS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND AREA. ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
SOMETIME AROUND MID WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH JUST TO THE EAST. THIS PATTERN COULD ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT AND INTERACTS WITH OTHER BOUNDARIES...LIKE THE SEA
BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DIPPING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW PROBABILITIES FOR TSTMS THIS
AFTERNOON AT BOTH TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT PROBABILITIES OF ANYTHING IMPACTING EITHER TERMINAL
ARE LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND...
LEADING TO CONDITIONS WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL...SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KT
WILL PERSIST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH
HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED NEAR INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND EARLY NIGHT SURGES. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SOUTHEAST EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SEABREEZE MAKES WAY INLAND. SEAS WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 1-3 FEET...WITH SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...JHP
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...DPB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
521 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-SCZ040-042-047-048-
051-032130-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-ALLENDALE-
HAMPTON-INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL JASPER-
521 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ137>141-SCZ043>045-049-050-052-032130-
LONG-INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-COASTAL COLLETON-
CHARLESTON-TIDAL BERKELEY-
521 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 550 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER INCLUDING...BUT NOT
LIMITED TO LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AT 1-888-383-2024.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
539 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE SAINT GEORGE      33.18N  80.55W
08/02/2012                   DORCHESTER         SC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE REPORTED DOWN ON US HWY 78 BETWEEN ST GEORGE AND
            BYRD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200624

JRL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
546 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0459 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSE WALTERBORO        32.85N  80.64W
08/02/2012                   COLLETON           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SC HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED A TREE DOWN ON RODEO DR NEAR
            POOR FARM RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200625

JRL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
547 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             2 W MIDWAY              31.80N  81.46W
08/02/2012  E0.88 INCH       LIBERTY            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            LIBERTY COUNTY CALL CENTER RELAYED A REPORT FROM A
            SHERIFFS DEPUTY OF NICKEL SIZED HAIL NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION OF LEWIS FRASIER ROAD AND HW-84.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200626

BSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
551 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             1 ESE GIVHANS           33.01N  80.33W
08/02/2012  E2.75 INCH       DORCHESTER         SC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            GIVHANS FIRE DEPT REPORTED HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
            BASEBALLS AND 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200627

JRL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
552 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N MIDWAY              31.83N  81.43W
08/02/2012                   LIBERTY            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF LUKE ROAD AND
            HW-17.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200628

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
555 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

GAZ140-141-022230-
COASTAL MCINTOSH-INLAND MCINTOSH-
555 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF MCINTOSH COUNTY
THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

AT 549 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...NEAR ARDICK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
BLACKBEARD ISLAND...CARNIGAN...COX...CRESCENT...DARIEN...EULONIA...
HARRIS NECK...JONES...MERIDIAN...PINE HARBOR...RIDGEVILLE...SAPELO
ISLAND...SHELLMAN BLUFF...SOUTH NEWPORT...TOWNSEND...VALONA AND WOLF
ISLAND...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...
PENNY SIZE HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
TORRENTIAL RAIN WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
BE READY TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN CASE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3132 8136 3131 8144 3133 8144 3135 8151
      3142 8161 3166 8148 3164 8143 3165 8126
      3160 8119 3148 8119 3140 8125 3137 8125
      3137 8127 3134 8127 3131 8125 3130 8127
      3129 8129
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 304DEG 13KT 3145 8147