Areal Flood Advisory 39, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
327 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...WHILE A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ACTIVE WX EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN SC THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WE STRONGLY DESTABILIZED
THIS MORNING UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOW/MID 70S DEWPOINTS
WHILE MID-LEVEL DRYING HAS RESULTED IN GOOD DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL.
WE ALSO COOLED OFF BY ALMOST TWO DEGREES AT 500 MB AND RESULTING
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DROPPED BY ABOUT 2000 FT. THUS WE ARE NOW
SEEING QUITE A FEW REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS WITH CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING. SEVERE TSTM WATCH
CONTINUES UNTIL 8 PM FOR ALL BUT THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA.
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF EARLY THIS EVENING AFTER USING UP THE
AIRMASS WITH DRY WX OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PRESENT ITSELF THIS WEEKEND AS
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHILE MID LVL
RIDGING MAINTAINS A STRONG HOLD OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
WITH THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES IN PLACE...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PERSIST THIS WEEKEND AND RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR AN
INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE EACH AFTERNOON ALONG WITH PULSE TYPE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EACH EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH SUNSET EACH EVENING GIVEN WEAK MID/UPPER LVL
SUPPORT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
PULSE TYPE CONVECTION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW OVER THE PERIOD.

IN GENERAL...HAVE MAINTAINED A 20 POP FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...WITH AN
INCREASING TREND TO 20-30 POPS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS PWATS
APPROACH 2 INCHES OVER THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD
OCCUR OVER INLAND AREAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN DIURNAL IN NATURE GIVEN WEAK MID/UPPER LVL
SUPPORT. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL ALSO REMAIN LOWER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. OVERALL TEMPS WILL REMAIN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY...WITH 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
LOW 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SHOW SUBTLE HIGH FALLS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND AREA. ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
SOMETIME AROUND MID WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH JUST TO THE EAST. THIS PATTERN COULD ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT AND INTERACTS WITH OTHER BOUNDARIES...LIKE THE SEA
BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DIPPING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW PROBABILITIES FOR TSTMS THIS
AFTERNOON AT BOTH TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT PROBABILITIES OF ANYTHING IMPACTING EITHER TERMINAL
ARE LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND...
LEADING TO CONDITIONS WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL...SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KT
WILL PERSIST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH
HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED NEAR INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND EARLY NIGHT SURGES. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SOUTHEAST EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SEABREEZE MAKES WAY INLAND. SEAS WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 1-3 FEET...WITH SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...JHP
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...DPB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
241 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042-043-047>049-051-031845-
JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-
COASTAL COLLETON-COASTAL JASPER-
241 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 550 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER INCLUDING...BUT NOT
LIMITED TO LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AT 1-888-383-2024.

SCZ044-045-050-052-031845-
DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-CHARLESTON-TIDAL BERKELEY-
241 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO OCCUR...MAINLY THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER INCLUDING...BUT NOT
LIMITED TO LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AT 1-888-383-2024.

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-031845-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
241 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
321 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 PM     HAIL             SYLVANIA                32.75N  81.64W
08/02/2012  E1.00 INCH       SCREVEN            GA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN DOWNTOWN
            SYLVANIA NEAR INTERSECTION OF NIMMS RD AND OGEECHEE RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200603

JRL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
325 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0304 PM     HAIL             PINEORA                 32.29N  81.39W
08/02/2012  E1.25 INCH       EFFINGHAM          GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MARBLE TO HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL IN PINEORA RELAYED BY
            BROADCAST MEDIA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200605

BSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
330 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             2 ESE GUYTON            32.33N  81.35W
08/02/2012  E0.88 INCH       EFFINGHAM          GA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG
            LITTLE MCCALL RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200606

JRL