Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
530 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED FORECASTS TO FINE TUNE POPS AND OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING

OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY EVENING.
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING MICROBURSTS. THUS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT IN ADDITION TO BRIEF/PULSE SEVER EVENTS... ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS COULD PERSIST SUCH AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT PRODUCED DAMAGING WINDS AND UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL WHICH
IMPACTED AREAS ALONG I-95 FROM MCINTOSH COUNTY...THROUGH THE
SAVANNAH AREA AND INTO JASPER COUNTY.

OF INTEREST...THE MOST ACTIVE REGIME HAS REMAINED NORTH/WEST OF THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION...AND THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION
ABOUT WHETHER ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH INTO THIS AREA.
MAINTAINED ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD STILL SPILL BACK TOWARD THE
COAST.

PER DIURNAL TRENDS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TONIGHT...AND THE REGION SHOULD BECOME MAINLY
PRECIPITATION FREE OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF STRATUS AND/OR FOG COULD
DEVELOP WHERE HEAVY RAIN OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALTHOUGH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY. QUITE A
BIT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COINCIDENT WITH RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER AND DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOONS. A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY DUE
TO THE ABUNDANCE OF FORCING MECHANISMS AND REASONABLY HIGH
CONVECTIVE INDICES.

THE FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN THE COAST ON FRIDAY. CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN GA ZONES AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIODS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT A STRONG AND EXPANSIVE AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NW ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...FAR OFF THE COAST
NEAR 30 WEST THERE ARE STILL SOME INDICATIONS THAT A COLD CORE OR
HYBRID LOW WILL FORM AS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS ALOFT OVER OR NEAR THE
SE COAST.

IN REGARDS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...AND PROVIDED ANY ATLANTIC LOW STAYS
FAR OFFSHORE...WE/RE LOOKING AT CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRIVEN BY LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE NW ATLANTIC
RIDGE. THIS ALONG WITH A GRADUAL RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL CAUSE A DAY
TO DAY INCREASE IN SHOWERS AS THEY PROGRESS FURTHER NORTH EACH DAY.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO SOUTH OF I-16 IN SE GA
SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE/LL SHOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO WHAT IS EXPECTED
FOR THAT TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT KSAV INTO EARLY
EVENING. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOWER AT KCHS BUT
UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL PUSH INTO THAT AREA. EXPECT
AMENDMENTS TO ADDRESS NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS. OUTSIDE
ANY THUNDERSTORMS..MAINLY VFR THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.
THEN...LOW CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN A SHOWER...STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY...BUT MAINLY 18Z OR LATER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY DUE TO DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS COULD LOCALLY ALTER WINDS CLOSE TO THE COAST INTO
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOCAL WATERS WILL REMAIN IN AN AREA
OF S TO SW FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE. SEA BREEZE
ENHANCEMENT COULD SUPPORT LOCAL WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ON CHARLESTON HARBOR.
OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 KTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. MAINTAINED SEAS
FROM 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM TO 4 FT 20-60 NM.

OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WIND AND SEA
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WILL BE SOMEWHAT QUIET WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE FOR THE WORSE ON
FRIDAY...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND NE. THAT
HIGH WILL THEN PERSIST OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
WITH A PINCHING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO CAUSE HIGHER WINDS AND
LARGER SEAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SEEM
ALMOST A CERTAINTY DURING THAT TIME.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS APPEARS LIKELY AT
THE BEACHES FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A PERSISTENT AND AT LEAST A
MODERATE NE AND EAST WIND TO PREVAIL.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...JRL/SPR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
257 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

AMZ330-350-352-354-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140-SCZ040-
042>045-047-052-161900-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-
EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-INLAND BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-
DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-INLAND JASPER-TIDAL BERKELEY-
257 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 278 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AMZ374-161900-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
257 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ117-119-139-141-SCZ048>051-161900-
COASTAL BRYAN-COASTAL CHATHAM-COASTAL LIBERTY-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
257 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 278 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW END SWELLS WILL LEAD
TO AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
518 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 PM     HAIL             3 E GARDEN CITY         32.10N  81.13W
05/15/2012  M1.75 INCH       CHATHAM            GA   PUBLIC

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL FELL ON FOUNDATION DRIVE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200164

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
528 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

GAZ137-140-152200-
INLAND MCINTOSH-LONG-
528 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF LONG AND MCINTOSH
COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

AT 526 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TIBET...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
JONES...TIBET AND TOWNSEND...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...
NICKEL SIZE HAIL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
BE READY TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN CASE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3147 8162 3149 8165 3154 8167 3156 8170
      3158 8170 3161 8176 3174 8158 3170 8150
      3156 8139 3145 8162
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 236DEG 16KT 3152 8170

JAQ

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