Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
608 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION BUILDS EAST INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE:
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN NC MOVING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
THE EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH WINDS DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH WSR-88D RETURNS INDICATING A FEW CELLS DEVELOPING OVER
THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT IS LOW
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME CELLS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREAT...WHICH AGREES WITH
SPC/S SLIGHT RISK AREA OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS. ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AND THE LOSS OF HEATING WITH ALL ACTIVITY
ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. SOME MID LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE AS MODELS CONTINUE BUILDING THE RIDGE EASTWARD.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE INCREASING H500 HEIGHTS A BIT CURRENT TEMP
FCST OF 100 AGAIN FRIDAY AND 99 SATURDAY STILL LOOK GOOD. WILL
INCLUDE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF DIURNAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS INDICATE A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPSTATE/MIDLANDS EACH DAY. THIS WILL BE
A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THE CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. NORMAL HIGHS AREA IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS WHICH HAVE THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUING TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST TO THE
ROCKIES AND AMPLIFYING. THIS WILL ALLOW A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN U.S BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL BY MID WEEK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING
FROM AROUND 1.75 INCHES TO AROUND OR EXCEEDING 2 INCHES BY
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER SUPPORT
WILL CONTINUE A DIURNAL TREND OF POPS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEEKEND INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SCTD STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AFTER
00Z...ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH SOME MID-LEVEL DEBRIS
LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...AND AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
FOG...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
511 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-060915-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
511 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
422 PM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             NORTH                   33.62N 81.10W
07/05/2012  E0.25 INCH       ORANGEBURG         SC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEA SIZED HAIL IN NORTH REPORTED BY COUNTY EMS.

&&

KILMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
459 PM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 ESE NORTH             33.58N 81.04W
07/05/2012                   ORANGEBURG         SC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWN IN ROADWAY ON SLAB LANDING ROAD NEAR WOODHAVEN
            ST.

&&

KILMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
536 PM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E TURBEVILLE          33.89N 79.96W
07/05/2012                   CLARENDON          SC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            LARGE LIMBS IN THE ROAD ON US 378

&&

KILMER