Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
244 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION BUILDS EAST INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH WSR-88D RETURNS INDICATING A FEW CELLS DEVELOPING OVER
THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT IS LOW
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME CELLS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREAT...WHICH AGREES WITH SPC/S
SLIGHT RISK AREA OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
WITH SUNSET AND THE LOSS OF HEATING WITH ALL ACTIVITY ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT. SOME MID LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE AS MODELS CONTINUE BUILDING THE RIDGE EASTWARD.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE INCREASING H500 HEIGHTS A BIT CURRENT TEMP
FCST OF 100 AGAIN FRIDAY AND 99 SATURDAY STILL LOOK GOOD. WILL
INCLUDE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF DIURNAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS INDICATE A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPSTATE/MIDLANDS EACH DAY. THIS WILL BE
A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THE CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. NORMAL HIGHS AREA IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS WHICH HAVE THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUING TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST TO THE
ROCKIES AND AMPLIFYING. THIS WILL ALLOW A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN U.S BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL BY MID WEEK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING
FROM AROUND 1.75 INCHES TO AROUND OR EXCEEDING 2 INCHES BY
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER SUPPORT
WILL CONTINUE A DIURNAL TREND OF POPS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEEKEND INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPO
MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY NEAR CAE/CUB/OGB AND
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS SUCH
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO COVER
THE CONVECTIVE THREAT. ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET AND
THE LOSS OF HEATING. FOG ALSO REMAINS A CONCERN...HOWEVER THIS
WILL DEPEND ON WHICH AREAS RECEIVE RAIN SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
MENTION OF FOG ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN DIURNAL
CONVECTION AND PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
511 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-060915-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
511 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.