Severe Thunderstorm Warning 141, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
219 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS WILL
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S. WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED. ATMOSPHERE IS
MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND
-9C WITH DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. LAPS SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY
OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND THIS SUPPORTS THE HIGH VALUES OF
DCAPE AND WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH STRONGER STORMS.
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY SCATTERED AND FOCUSED ALONG THE CSRA AND POSSIBLE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AS STORMS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOVES SOUTHEAST.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY AROUND 03Z-05Z WITH LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LIMITING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AGAIN FALL INTO THE
LOWER OT MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW DIURNAL
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
DOMINATING OUR WEATHER PATTERN RETROGRADING WEST TO THE ROCKIES AND
AMPLIFYING. THIS WILL ALLOW A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO SETTLE
OVER THE EASTERN U.S BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT SHOULD COOL A BIT BY
MID NEXT WEEK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING
FROM AROUND 1.75 INCHES TO AROUND OR EXCEEDING 2 INCHES BY
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER
SUPPORT PLAN TO CONTINUE A DIURNAL TREND OF POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AWAY FROM CONVECTION.

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND
INSTABILITY...PRIMARILY FOCUSED NEAR THE AGS/DNL TERMINALS. WILL
CARRY VICINITY SHOWERS WITH TEMPORARY REDUCED VSBYS IN
THUNDERSTORMS 18Z-22Z. AT CAE/CUB/OGB WILL LEAVE CONVECTION OUT
AND AMEND AS NECESSARY. STORMS WILL MOVE LITTLE AND CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
AVIATION INTERESTS.

SOME POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AT AGS/OGB DURING 10Z-13Z TIME
FRAME WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT
WINDS. WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER 14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...AND AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
FOG POSSIBLE...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
346 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ018-025-030-035-041-042000-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-MCCORMICK-EDGEFIELD-AIKEN-
BARNWELL-BAMBERG-
346 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SCZ015-016-020>022-026>029-031-036>038-042000-
LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-SUMTER-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
346 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
217 PM EDT TUE JUL 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 S KEYSVILLE           33.13N 82.25W
07/03/2012                   BURKE              GA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND POWER OUTAGES FROM
            LINES DOWN ALONG WILLIAM TINLEY ROAD SOUTHWEST OF ST.
            CLAIR.

&&

SJN

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