Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
941 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST. THE REGION WILL
HAVE MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LESS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS COMPARED TO MONDAY. 12Z CHS RAOB INDICATES MORE INSTABILITY
TODAY AND DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED BACK TO THE LOWER 70S THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE
TO 1.75 INCHES AND MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED SHOULD PROVIDE INCREASED
CHANCES OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR WOULD INDICATE
A MORE ISOLATED AND LESS ORGANIZED THREAT.

WILL LIKELY RAISE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS THICKNESS
VALUES SUPPORT TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE MID
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. MAINLY TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER REGIME WITH A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD. WITH LOWER H500 HEIGHTS...
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MORE NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD BUT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SHOWING A LARGE
AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND
SOUTHERN CANADA RESULTING IN A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST. FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC WHILE A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH REMAINS STATIONARY ALONG THE CAROLINAS INTO THE
GULF COAST STATES.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING FROM
AROUND 1.75 INCHES TO AROUND OR EXCEEDING 2 INCHES BY SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER SUPPORT PLAN
TO CONTINUE A DIURNAL TREND OF POPS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL AND COOL SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S EXCEPT FOR A FEW UPPER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY.

CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
TODAY. IT APPEARS BETTER MOISTURE WILL EXIST TO THE WEST...FAVORING
BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT AGS/DNL...BUT CONFIDENCE OF TSRA
NOT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
GENERALLY A SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPING AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...AND AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
FOG POSSIBLE...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...HC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
614 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-041015-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
614 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.