Alert archive / New York / Winter Weather Advisories in 2012
Winter Weather Advisory 7, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this winter weather advisory at Jan 29, 2012, 11:40 AM EST for 13 counties in New York. It took effect at Jan 29, 2012, 12:00 PM EST. It was in force for 16 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 29, 2012, 11:40 AM EST (16:40 UTC)
- In effect from
- Jan 29, 2012, 12:00 PM EST
- Expired
- Jan 30, 2012, 3:57 AM EST
- In force
- 16 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
Counties Cattaraugus County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Wyoming County, NY
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 4.7 hours before the alert went out and 89 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1069 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 43 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 220 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 258 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
282 WWUS41 KBUF 291640 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1140 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 NYZ007-008-300045- /O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0007.120129T1700Z-120130T0500Z/ JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 1140 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT. * LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF WATERTOWN. * TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL THIS EVENING. * HAZARDS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...A TOTAL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. * VISIBILITIES...A QUARTER MILE IN HEAVIER SNOWS. * IMPACTS...SLOW TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ004>006-300045- /O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0007.120129T1700Z-120130T1700Z/ WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO 1140 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY. * LOCATIONS...WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA...AND OSWEGO COUNTIES. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY...AND FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WAYNE AND CAYUGA COUNTIES. * TIMING...SNOW WILL START MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF SNOW THROUGH NOON ON MONDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL EARLY THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. * HAZARDS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...A TOTAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES. * VISIBILITIES...A QUARTER MILE IN HEAVIER SNOWS. * IMPACTS...SLOW TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN NEAR DAYBREAK ON MONDAY MORNING AS HEAVIER SNOWS FALL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ001>003-010-011-300045- /O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0007.120129T1700Z-120130T0300Z/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... BUFFALO...BATAVIA 1140 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING. * LOCATIONS...THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NORTHERN GENESEE VALLEY...FROM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER. * TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MOST WIDESPREAD SNOWS LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. * HAZARDS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * VISIBILITIES...BELOW A QUARTER MILE IN HEAVIER SNOWS. * IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS HEAVIER SNOWS FALLS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ012-019-020-085-300045- /O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0007.120129T2000Z-120130T0300Z/ WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 1140 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING. * LOCATIONS...WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND WYOMING AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY. * TIMING...LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. * HAZARDS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES. * VISIBILITIES...A QUARTER MILE IN HEAVIER SNOWS. * IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS HEAVIER SNOWS FALL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ APFFEL
4 follow-up statements
279 WWUS41 KBUF 292043 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 343 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 NYZ012-019-020-085-300445- /O.EXT.KBUF.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-120130T0900Z/ WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 343 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY... * LOCATIONS...WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND WYOMING AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY. * TIMING...THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE THIS EVENING. * HAZARDS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES. * VISIBILITIES...A QUARTER MILE IN HEAVIER SNOWS. * IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS HEAVIER SNOW FALLS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW... SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ007-008-300445- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-120130T0500Z/ JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 343 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT... * LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. * TIMING...THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW IN LAKE EFFECT BANDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A PERIOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING. * HAZARDS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...A TOTAL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. * VISIBILITIES...A QUARTER MILE IN HEAVIER SNOWS. * IMPACTS...SLOW TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW... SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ004-005-300445- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-120130T1700Z/ WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN 343 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY... * LOCATIONS...WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES...MAINLY FAR NORTH NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY AS A LAKE EFFECT BAND DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SYSTEM. * HAZARDS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...A TOTAL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES. * VISIBILITIES...A QUARTER MILE IN HEAVIER SNOWS. * IMPACTS...SLOW TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN NEAR DAYBREAK ON MONDAY MORNING AS HEAVIER SNOW FALLS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW... SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ001>003-010-011-300300- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-120130T0300Z/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... BUFFALO...BATAVIA 343 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * LOCATIONS...THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NORTHERN GENESEE VALLEY... FROM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER. * TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING. * HAZARDS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...A QUICK 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW THIS EVENING. * VISIBILITIES...BELOW A QUARTER MILE IN HEAVIER SNOWS. * IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS EVENING AS HEAVIER SNOW FALLS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW... SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ006-300445- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-120130T1700Z/ OSWEGO- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO 343 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY... * LOCATIONS...OSWEGO COUNTY. * TIMING...EXPECT A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING...THEN AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. * HAZARDS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...A TOTAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES. * VISIBILITIES...A QUARTER MILE IN HEAVIER SNOWS. * IMPACTS...SLOW TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN NEAR DAYBREAK ON MONDAY MORNING AS HEAVIER SNOW FALLS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW... SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ APFFEL
179 WWUS41 KBUF 300255 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 955 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 NYZ001>003-010-011-300400- /O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-120130T0300Z/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... BUFFALO...BATAVIA 955 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE STEADIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. THEREFORE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER...ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE...MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE EXTRA CAUTION TONIGHT. UNTREATED ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND VERY SLICK. $$ NYZ007-008-300500- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-120130T0500Z/ JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 955 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT... * LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. * TIMING...THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. * HAZARDS...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...ANOTHER 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. * VISIBILITIES...DOWN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW... SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ004-005-301100- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-120130T1700Z/ WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN 955 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY... * LOCATIONS...WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES...MAINLY FAR NORTH NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. * TIMING...THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. * HAZARDS...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT AND 1 TO 3 INCHES MONDAY. * VISIBILITIES...DOWN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER SNOW FALLS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW... SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ012-019-020-085-300900- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-120130T0900Z/ WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 955 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY... * LOCATIONS...WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND WYOMING AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY. * TIMING...THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. * HAZARDS...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES OVERNIGHT. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER SNOW FALLS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW... SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ006-301100- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-120130T1700Z/ OSWEGO- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO 955 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY... * LOCATIONS...OSWEGO COUNTY. * TIMING...THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. * HAZARDS...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES OVERNIGHT AND 1 TO 3 INCHES MONDAY. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER SNOW FALLS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW... SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$
133 WWUS41 KBUF 300428 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1128 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 NYZ007-008-300530- /O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-120130T0500Z/ JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 1128 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THE STEADIER SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF. THEREFORE...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. $$ NYZ004-005-301230- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-120130T1700Z/ WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN 1128 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY... * LOCATIONS...WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES...MAINLY FAR NORTH NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. * TIMING...THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. * HAZARDS...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES OVERNIGHT AND 1 TO 3 INCHES MONDAY. * VISIBILITIES...DOWN TO ONE HALF MILE IN STEADIER SNOW. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW... SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ012-019-020-085-300900- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-120130T0900Z/ WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 1128 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY... * LOCATIONS...WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND WYOMING AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY. * TIMING...THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. * HAZARDS...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 2 INCHES OVERNIGHT. * VISIBILITIES...DOWN TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW... SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ006-301230- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-120130T1700Z/ OSWEGO- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO 1128 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY... * LOCATIONS...OSWEGO COUNTY. * TIMING...THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. * HAZARDS...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT AND 1 TO 3 INCHES MONDAY. * VISIBILITIES...DOWN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER SNOWS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW... SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$
005 WWUS41 KBUF 300857 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 357 AM EST MON JAN 30 2012 NYZ004>006-301700- /O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-120130T1700Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0005.120130T0857Z-120130T1700Z/ WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO 357 AM EST MON JAN 30 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. * LOCATIONS...EASTERN WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA...AND OSWEGO COUNTIES. * TIMING...UNTIL NOONTIME TODAY. * HAZARDS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...SLIPPERY SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH THE LAKE SNOWS WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ012-019-020-085-301000- /O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-120130T0900Z/ WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 357 AM EST MON JAN 30 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WHILE LIMITED LAKE SNOWS COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE ENDING THIS MORNING...THE THREAT OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAS ENDED. THEREFORE... THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. $$ JJR
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this winter weather advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter weather advisory went out at Jan 29, 10:23 AM EST, 1 hour 17 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 29, 10:23 AM EST, 1 hour 17 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1023 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOWFALL...FOLLOWED BY RENEWED LAKE SNOWS EAST OF THE LAKES TONIGHT
AS A WESTERLY FLOW OF BRIEFLY COLDER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL THEN BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP FOR TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM...RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF SNOW EXTENDING NORTH OF THE
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER METRO AREAS. THIS BAND HAS BEEN QUITE
IMPRESSIVE AT TIMES THIS MORNING...BRINGING A QUICK TWO INCHES OF
SNOW TO SOME LOCATIONS. THE BAND HAS SINCE WEAKENED A BIT. MODELS
HAVE NOT HANDLED THIS BAND WELL AT ALL...WITH THE LIKELY CAUSE A
COMBINATION OF MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LAKE EFFECT
ENHANCEMENT. IR SHOWS LESS MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS
UPSTREAM...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE BAND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
THIS SAID...WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS BUFFALO NORTHWARD THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON...WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE FROM THIS
BAND THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...OFF LAKE ONTARIO...THE
LAKE EFFECT BAND PROMPTING ADVISORIES HAS DISSIPATED...AND THIS
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. DESPITE THIS...ADDITIONAL
SNOW IS ON THE WAY...WITH ANOTHER HEADLINE POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR
FUTURE. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR THIS AREA IS AS MOISTURE FROM
THE LAKE ERIE BAND WORKS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...THERE MAY BE
ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS JOINED THE RGEM/NAM12 OF BRINGING A
DECENT SNOW BURST LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. QPFS ARE
GENERALLY BETWEEN .10 AND .25 WITH THIS...WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR
ADVISORIES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL RATES...WILL
CONSIDER AN ADVISORY FOR MARGINAL AMOUNTS...BASED ON IMPACT. THERE
ALSO WILL BE LAKE EFFECT AFTER THIS...WHICH FURTHER COMPLICATES
THE ISSUE. WOULD LIKE TO LOOK AT 12Z RUNS BEFORE MAKING HEADLINE
DECISIONS...BUT WILL LIKELY MAKE HEADLINE DECISIONS BEFORE THE
SCHEDULED 300 PM UPDATE.
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE WAVE THIS
EVENING...A WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR WILL
ONCE AGAIN SET UP ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
DROPPING FROM AROUND -10C/-11C EARLY THIS EVENING TO AROUND -14C
BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL TRIGGER A RENEWED ROUND OF LAKE SNOWS EAST
/EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES. OFF LAKE ERIE...THE RELATIVELY
SHALLOW MOISTURE FIELD AND LOW CAPPING INVERSION HEIGHT OF 5 KFT
SHOULD HELP KEEP THE LAKE SNOWS FAIRLY MINIMAL IN NATURE EAST OF
THE LAKE...WHERE ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF FRESH ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE NIGHT. OFF LAKE ONTARIO...THINGS
WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
FIELD...STRONGER LIFT...AND A CAPPING INVERSION OF AROUND 9-10 KFT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY-CRITERIA SNOWS. THE
MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS EXACTLY WHERE THESE WILL BE...AS
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VARIATION IN THE EXACT LOCATION
OF THE LAKE SNOW BAND...RANGING FROM THE 00Z NAM'S DEPICTION OF A
BAND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE...TO THE 00Z RGEM'S TUG HILL
POSITIONING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST ON
MONDAY EAST OF THE LAKES WITH 850MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -14C
DURING THE MORNING.
OFF LAKE ERIE...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE DURING
THE MORNING AND DISRUPT/BACK THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ALSO DRY OUT THE
LOW LEVELS. THIS SHOULD BRING A QUICK END TO LAKE EFFECT WITH
LINGERING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
LIFTING NORTH TOWARDS THE BUF SOUTHTOWNS AND FALLING APART WITH ONLY
VERY MINOR DUSTING TO AN INCH ACCUMULATIONS ON THE HILLS IN THE
EARLY MORNING.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE MORE FAVORABLE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K
FEET...DETERIORATING TO LESS THAN 7K FEET BY AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD
WITH BAND PLACEMENT IN THE LATEST 00Z MODEL SUITE WITH THE CANADIAN
GEM HOLDING THE LAKE EFFECT ACROSS NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY AND THE
SOUTHERN TUG HILL...WHILE THE NAM DROPS THE BAND INTO SOUTHERN
OSWEGO COUNTY AND EVEN CLIPS N.CAYUGA AND NE WAYNE COUNTY FOR
AWHILE. FOR NOW HAVE PLACED THE BAND ACROSS CENTRAL OSWEGO COUNTY
BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE TWEAKED AS SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
CONVERGES ON A COMMON SOLUTION FOR BAND PLACEMENT. SYNOPTIC SCALE
MOISTURE IS DRYING OUT BY MONDAY MORNING...BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND LONG FETCH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL MORE INCHES IN
PERSISTENT BANDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. AN ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS INTO MONDAY...BUT AS STATED IN THE NEAR
TERM DISCUSSION WE WILL WAIT UNTIL THE CURRENT ADVISORY EXPIRES
BEFORE RAISING A NEW ONE TO AVOID CONFUSION.
THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT WILL WEAKEN AND END MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES THE LAKE AND DISRUPTS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
OUR ATTENTION THEN QUICKLY TURNS BACK TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. PAST
FEW RUNS OF THE GFS AND SREF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NY...THEN
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA
OF SNOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A MODERATE TO STRONG WARM ADVECTION
REGIME WITH AMPLE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE
NOSE OF A 60 KNOT 700MB JET SUPPORTING A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW.
THE QUALITY OF DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE COMING TOGETHER SUGGEST THIS
MAY PRODUCE A GENERAL 1-3 INCH SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
THE SNOW THAT FALLS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE A THING OF THE
PAST BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY STRONG WARM-UP ARRIVES
BEGINNING TUESDAY. IN FACT...FOLLOWING THE GENERAL SNOW MONDAY
EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL RISE OVERNIGHT IN THE MODERATE TO STRONG
WARM ADVECTION REGIME...AND WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ALREADY BY
TUESDAY MORNING FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD. ONGOING WARM
ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY WITH A MAINLY DRY DAY AS THE WARM SECTOR
MIXES NORTHWARD.
THE WARM FRONT WILL HANG UP EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH LIGHT SNOW
LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON TUESDAY. MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE
MINOR ACCUMULATION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT BY AFTERNOON EVEN THERE THE
WARM AIR WILL BEGIN TO WIN OUT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE
FREEZING AND ALLOWING RAIN TO MIX IN WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THE HEART OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO WESTERN QUEBEC
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH MANY
LOCATIONS NOT DROPPING OUT OF THE 40S...WITH MID 30S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND BELT OF ENHANCED
LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT...WITH RAIN CHANCES GOING UP OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH VERY MILD TEMPS
JUST AHEAD GIVING WAY TO FALLING TEMPS BY AFTERNOON. BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE EARLY...WITH DRYING EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON IF THE
CURRENT MODEL TIMING HOLDS.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN...BUT STILL
ABOVE CLIMO FOR THURSDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST
OF THE LAKES.
LATER THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND FORECAST UNCERTAINTY QUICKLY
INCREASES WITH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RAPIDLY BECOMING
DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT IN THE SYNOPTIC DETAILS AND EVEN THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN. THE GFS KEEPS A FLAT TROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH A
GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD TAKE A SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE LOWER
LAKES...RESULTING IN A TURN TO COLDER TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND BUT MAINLY
DRY. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND BRINGS A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW OVER THE LOWER LAKES LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
AND WET SNOW CHANGING TO SNOW. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AMPLIFICATION BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
SOME SEMBLANCE OF ANOTHER OHIO VALLEY LOW BRINGING A GENERAL
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL CONSISTENCY...WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
COMPLEXITY OF THE PATTERN EVOLUTION LATE NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ONGOING MODEL UNCERTAINTY FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS UNTIL
MODELS BEGIN TO CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE 15Z AMD...EXPECT VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON. PREDOMINANTLY MVFR-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...PERIODIC LAKE SNOWS WILL DRASTICALLY LOWER CONDITIONS AT
BUF/IAG/ART AT TIMES THIS MORNING. TAFS BASICALLY FOLLOWING RADAR
TRENDS DURING THIS TIME...WITH PERIODS OF VSBY BELOW 1SM POSSIBLE
AT THESE TAF LOCATIONS.
AFTER 20Z...A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS. THIS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES...WHICH
WILL LAST A COUPLE HOURS. VSBY BELOW 1/2SM IS LIKELY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH THE EXIT OF THIS SHORTWAVE...WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN LAKE
EFFECT BANDS...BUT IN THE WNW FLOW THESE TYPICALLY HAVE ONLY MINOR
IMPACTS ON TAF SITES...THOUGH LOCAL AND BRIEF PERIODS OF LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR IN DIMINISHING LAKE SNOWS EAST OF THE LAKES...
MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
MONDAY NIGHT...IFR WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY.
TUESDAY...IFR WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...
ELSEWHERE IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES AND WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION RIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN CONDITIONS REMAINING SOLIDLY IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT RESULTS
IN DIMINISHING WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
LOZ042>045.
&&
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL/JJR
MARINE...APFFEL/JJRHazardous weather outlook, Jan 29, 5:17 AM EST, 6 hours 23 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 517 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 NYZ001>004-010-011-013-014-021-301030- NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-LIVINGSTON- ONTARIO-ALLEGANY- 517 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING A BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION AND RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF TRICKY TRAVEL CONDITIONS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ012-019-020-085-301030- WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- 517 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING A BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION AND RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF TRICKY TRAVEL CONDITIONS. SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN PERSISTENT BANDS...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ005-006-301030- NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO- 517 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING A BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION AND RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF TRICKY TRAVEL CONDITIONS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BAND...BUT SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE LIKELY IN PERSISTENT SNOWS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH A FEW MORE INCHES IN PERSISTENT BANDS BEFORE IT WEAKENS IN THE AFTERNOON. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ007-008-301030- JEFFERSON-LEWIS- 517 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING A BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION AND RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF TRICKY TRAVEL CONDITIONS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH A FEW MORE INCHES IN PERSISTENT BANDS BEFORE IT WEAKENS IN THE AFTERNOON. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-301030- UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- LOWER NIAGARA RIVER- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS- 517 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF HITCHCOCK
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jan 29, 6:05 AM EST, 5 hours 35 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 605 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 NYZ010>012-085-291230- NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW... ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 605 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...BRIEF BURST OF HEAVY SNOW LIFTING NORTH... A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND CROSS THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS AND MUCH OF WYOMING COUNTY THROUGH 7 AM. SNOWFALL RATES WILL BRIEFLY REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR IN THIS BAND AND RESULT IN SNOW COVERED ROADS AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL. IF THE BAND OF SNOW HOLDS TOGETHER IT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN SUBURBS OF BUFFALO AND PORTIONS OF GENESEE COUNTY THROUGH 8 AM. HITCHCOCK
Special weather statement, Jan 29, 6:09 AM EST, 5 hours 31 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 609 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 NYZ007-008-291330- JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 609 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTH... A BAND OF MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW WILL BE FOUND FROM ADAMS CENTER TO CARTHAGE AND CROGHAN THROUGH 7 AM...THEN LIFT FARTHER NORTH TO WATERTOWN...FORT DRUM AND HARRISVILLE. SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR WITHIN THE HEART OF THIS BAND. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS WITH VISIBILITY REDUCED TO LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. HITCHCOCK
Special weather statement, Jan 29, 7:00 AM EST, 4 hours 40 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 700 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 NYZ001-002-010>012-085-291400- NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO... BATAVIA...WARSAW...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 700 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...AREA OF SNOW MOVING INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER... A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE BOSTON HILLS NORTH ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA TO SOUTHERN NIAGARA COUNTY...AND INTO PORTIONS OF GENESEE AND SOUTHERN ORLEANS COUNTY. THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OF ACCUMULATION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN A HALF MILE AT TIMES. ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. HITCHCOCK
Special weather statement, Jan 29, 9:11 AM EST, 2 hours 29 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 911 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 NYZ001-002-291600- NIAGARA-ORLEANS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA 911 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS NIAGARA AND ORLEANS COUNTIES THROUGH 1100 AM. EXPECT VISIBILITY TO DROP AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE IN THIS BAND...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR. THE BAND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THIS MORNING. THIS WILL IMPACT NIAGARA FALLS...LOCKPORT...MEDINA...ALBION...AND LEWISTON THROUGH THIS MORNING. APFFEL
Special weather statement, Jan 29, 11:20 AM EST, 20 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1120 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 NYZ001-002-291800- NIAGARA-ORLEANS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA 1120 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 STEADY MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES OF A HALF TO AN INCH PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH TOTAL NEW SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. ROADWAYS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY... DRIVERS ARE URGED TO ADJUST SPEED FOR THE INCLEMENT CONDITIONS.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 10:06 PM EST | Wind Advisory | BUF | Chautauqua, Erie | 4 hr |
| Jan 29, 3:46 AM EST | Small Craft Advisory | BUF | 36 hr |
Nearby
Winter Weather Advisories in New York, 2012Every winter weather advisory in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.