Lake Effect Snow Watch 3, NWS Buffalo, NY

358 
WWUS41 KBUF 171705
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1205 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

NYZ012-019-020-085-180115-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0003.120118T0600Z-120118T2200Z/
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1205 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...WYOMING...SOUTHERN ERIE AND CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES.

* TIMING...OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY 
  AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES OVERNIGHT AND 3 TO 5 INCHES 
  WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THE 
  MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT IN SNOW COVERED 
  ROADS AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT TIMES. 

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MODERATE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ006-008-180115-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0003.120118T0600Z-120118T2200Z/
OSWEGO-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...LOWVILLE
1205 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO COUNTY.

* TIMING...OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY 
  AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 12 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE
  SNOWS.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT IN SNOW COVERED 
  ROADS AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT TIMES. 

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MODERATE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

$$

120 
WWUS41 KBUF 172006
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
306 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

NYZ012-019-020-085-180415-
/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0003.120118T0600Z-120118T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0003.120118T0300Z-120118T1700Z/
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
306 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON EST WEDNESDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT. 

* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA...CATTARAUGUS...WYOMING AND SOUTHERN ERIE
  COUNTIES.

* TIMING...LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT AND 2 TO 4 INCHES 
  WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THE 
  MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH THIS EVENING.

* VISIBILITIES...TO LESS THAN 1/2 MILE IN BLOWING SNOW.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS AROUND 20 OVERNIGHT. HIGHS AROUND 20
  WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS...BLOWING SNOW AND SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURE WILL MAKE
  ROAD TREATMENT LESS EFFECTIVE. LOWERED VISIBILITY IN SNOW AND
  BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ006-008-180415-
/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0003.120118T0600Z-120118T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0003.120118T0600Z-120118T2000Z/
OSWEGO-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...LOWVILLE
306 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY 
  AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATING 2 TO 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT AND 2
  TO 4 INCHES WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES
  IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH THOUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT.

* VISIBILITIES...TO LESS THAN 1/2 MILE IN BLOWING SNOW.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS 10 TO 20 OVERNIGHT. HIGHS 15 TO 20
  WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS...BLOWING SNOW AND SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURE WILL MAKE
  ROAD TREATMENT LESS EFFECTIVE. LOWERED VISIBILITY IN SNOW AND
  BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-180415-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0003.120118T0600Z-120118T2000Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN
306 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES.

* TIMING...OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY 
  AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AN INCH OR LESS OVERNIGHT AND 2 TO 4 INCHES 
  WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN THE 
  MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH THIS EVENING.

* VISIBILITIES...TO LESS THAN 1/2 MILE IN BLOWING SNOW.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S OVERNIGHT. HIGHS IN THE
  MID 20S WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS...BLOWING SNOW AND SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURE WILL MAKE
  ROAD TREATMENT LESS EFFECTIVE. LOWERED VISIBILITY IN SNOW AND
  BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1148 PM EST MON JAN 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
INTERMITTENT RAIN AND SOME FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE WELL INLAND WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SYSTEM
THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT.  THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN
AS IT MOVES OVER THE OHIO ON TUESDAY AND DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS NEW YORK...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TAKING SHAPE BEHIND THE FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  A BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES BY ON THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF GENERAL SNOWFALL AS WELL AS LAKE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGER MASS OF RAIN IS OVERSPREADING THE WESTERNMOST COUNTIES THIS
EVENING WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS
FROM LAKE ERIE TO LAKE ONTARIO. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH ALL SITE REPORTING ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPS...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS WITH
SUBFREEZING TEMPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...SOME LOCALES ARE STILL JUST BELOW FREEZING
ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE DURING THE
EVENING. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP THROUGH THE
REST OF THE EVENING AND WILL MONITOR THE TEMPS.

THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH RAIN OR
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AS THE SNOWPACK CONTINUES
TO MELT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING BACK TO 40F.

ON TUESDAY...A CONTINUATION OF DREARY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE
MORNING WITH A LOW QPF BUT PLENTY OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AND FOG
WITH CONTINUED MELTING SNOW.  ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO PLAIN RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY MID
MORNING.

THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN WILL INCREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPENING OH LOW APPROACHES  WITH THE REGION
UNDER THE MAIN BAROCLINIC LEAF AND UNDER THE WARM AIR CONVEYOR
BELT.  THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A MATURE SURFACE LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO. THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE
DOORSTEP OF WESTERN NEW YORK...DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
LAKE ERIE. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH A TIGHT ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW WILL LEAD TO GALES ACROSS THE LAKES WITH
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

AS THE WINDS VEER TO THE WEST AND A ARCTIC AIR SPILLS ACROSS THE
REGION...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO DEVELOP ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO. WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST MAKING THE
WINDOW FOR SNOWFALL IN THE BUFFALO METRO AREA VERY LIMITED. THE BULK
OF SNOWFALL OFF OF LAKE ERIE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM SOUTHERN ERIE
COUNTY SOUTH ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND FROM THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU SOUTH TO WAYNE COUNTY OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH ADVISORY
LEVEL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
SNOWBELTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS...WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED TO COVER THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW. FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO AS
THIS IS STILL OUT IN THE THIRD TO FORTH PERIODS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THE BRIEF RESPITE FROM WINTER TO BE
CUT SHORT IN DRAMATIC FASHION WITH TEMPS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S
WITH TEENS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING INTO WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE DAY TO THE TEENS BY
THE AFTERNOON...WITH SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY CLOSER
TO THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIRMASS.

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. WE COULD SEE ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD WITH
TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. LINGERING
CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM CRASHING QUITE AS FAR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
RUNNING FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE.

A CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT SWEEPING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKES AND
BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO WESTERN NEW YORK
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS THURSDAY WILL DROP OFF AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH LOWS AGAIN RUNNING AROUND 5
TO 15 ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TAPERING OFF AS THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL BE FOR HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND/QUEBEC TO BE UNDERCUT BY A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN
BY A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS
FRIDAY NIGHT. HOW FAR NORTH THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP GETS IS A MATTER OF DEBATE AMONGST THE MODELS WITH
THE GFS KEEPING PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH THAN EITHER THE ECMWF OR GEM.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODEL
CONSENSUS/ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A WARM-UP BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS
BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD REGION OF RAIN MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN
MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...THEN EXPECT IFR
CIGS FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP TO
THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE TEMPS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE FREEZING MARK.

WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS ON TUESDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
A COLD FRONT CUTS THROUGH DURING EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A HIGH
WIND EVENT EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FRONT BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. SURFACE
WINDS MAY REACH SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 30KT AND GUSTS TO NEAR
50KT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TO
THE UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...CHC SNOW SHOWERS SE OF BOTH LAKES.
SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  A DEEPENING LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKES TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL LIKELY INCREASE WIND SPEEDS INTO THE GALE CATEGORY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ005-006.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ020-021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
         FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
         MORNING FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...WCH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...ZAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
502 PM EST MON JAN 16 2012

NYZ001>003-010-011-172215-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
502 PM EST MON JAN 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE EXPERIENCED LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT AS A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM LAKE ERIE TO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WINDS COULD GUST OVER 45 MPH DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY PLUMMETING
TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN QUICKLY CHANGING TO SNOW AND THE ONSET OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ020-172215-
CATTARAUGUS-
502 PM EST MON JAN 16 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE EXPERIENCED LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT AS A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM LAKE ERIE TO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WINDS COULD GUST OVER 40 MPH DURING THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STRONG WINDS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN QUICKLY
CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012-019-085-172215-
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
502 PM EST MON JAN 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL AGAIN BE EXPERIENCED LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM LAKE
ERIE TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WINDS COULD GUST OVER 45 MPH
DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN QUICKLY CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING
SNOW. LAKE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ021-172215-
ALLEGANY-
502 PM EST MON JAN 16 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM LAKE ERIE TO THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WINDS COULD GUST OVER 40 MPH DURING THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STRONG WINDS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN QUICKLY
CHANGING TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ013-014-172215-
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
502 PM EST MON JAN 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE EXPERIENCED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM LAKE
ERIE TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WINDS COULD GUST OVER 40 MPH
DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
STRONG WINDS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES WITH
RAIN QUICKLY CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ005-172215-
NORTHERN CAYUGA-
502 PM EST MON JAN 16 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE EXPERIENCED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM LAKE
ERIE TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WINDS COULD GUST OVER 40 MPH
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN QUICKLY CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ004-172215-
WAYNE-
502 PM EST MON JAN 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE EXPERIENCED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM LAKE
ERIE TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WINDS COULD GUST OVER 40 MPH
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN QUICKLY CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006-172215-
OSWEGO-
502 PM EST MON JAN 16 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE EXPERIENCED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
FROM LAKE ERIE TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WINDS COULD GUST OVER 40
MPH DURING THIS PERIOD. THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN QUICKLY CHANGING TO SNOW. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY COULD
BE SIGNIFICANT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ007-008-172215-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
502 PM EST MON JAN 16 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE EXPERIENCED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM LAKE
ERIE TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WINDS COULD GUST OVER 45 MPH
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN QUICKLY CHANGING TO SNOW AND THE
ONSET OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY COULD BE SIGNIFICANT OVER THE TUG HILL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ040-041-172215-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
502 PM EST MON JAN 16 2012

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-SLZ022-024-172215-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
502 PM EST MON JAN 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AND
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ042>045-062>065-172215-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
502 PM EST MON JAN 16 2012

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF