Lake Effect Snow Advisory 3, NWS Buffalo, NY

726 
WWUS41 KBUF 180256
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
956 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

NYZ012-019-020-085-181100-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0003.120118T0300Z-120118T1700Z/
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
956 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA...CATTARAUGUS...WYOMING AND SOUTHERN 
  ERIE COUNTIES. 

* TIMING...LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT AND 2 TO 4 INCHES 
  WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THE 
  MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. 

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH OVERNIGHT.

* VISIBILITIES...TO LESS THAN 1/2 MILE IN BLOWING SNOW.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS AROUND 20 OVERNIGHT. HIGHS AROUND 20 
  WEDNESDAY. 

* IMPACTS...BLOWING SNOW AND SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURE WILL 
  MAKE ROAD TREATMENT LESS EFFECTIVE. LOWERED VISIBILITY IN SNOW 
  AND BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ004>006-008-181100-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0003.120118T0600Z-120118T2000Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...LOWVILLE
956 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY 
  AFTERNOON. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATING 2 TO 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT AND 
  2 TO 4 INCHES WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 7 
  INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. 

* WINDS...WEST 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH THOUGH EARLY
  OVERNIGHT.

* VISIBILITIES...TO LESS THAN 1/2 MILE IN BLOWING SNOW.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS 10 TO 20 OVERNIGHT. HIGHS 15 TO 20 
  WEDNESDAY. 

* IMPACTS...BLOWING SNOW AND SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURE WILL 
  MAKE ROAD TREATMENT LESS EFFECTIVE. LOWERED VISIBILITY IN SNOW 
  AND BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

TMA

395 
WWUS41 KBUF 180858
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
358 AM EST WED JAN 18 2012

NYZ008-181000-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-120118T2000Z/
LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LOWVILLE
358 AM EST WED JAN 18 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. 

THE STEADIER LAKE SNOWS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

$$

NYZ004>006-181700-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-120118T2000Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO
358 AM EST WED JAN 18 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA...OSWEGO AND LEWIS
  COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 2 INCHES THROUGH 6 AM WITH ANOTHER 3 TO 5
  INCHES TODAY.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH THIS
  MORNING. 

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN SNOW AND BLOWING
  SNOW.
 
* TEMPERATURES...FALLING THROUGH THE 20S TODAY.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-181700-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-120118T1700Z/
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
358 AM EST WED JAN 18 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TODAY...

* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA...CATTARAUGUS...WYOMING AND SOUTHERN 
  ERIE COUNTIES. 

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 2 INCHES THROUGH 6 AM WITH ANOTHER 3 TO 5
  INCHES TODAY. 

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...DOWN TO ONE QUARTER MILE IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
  THIS MORNING. 

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING THROUGH THE 20S TODAY. 

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$


TJP

115 
WWUS41 KBUF 181520
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1020 AM EST WED JAN 18 2012

NYZ004>006-181630-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-120118T2000Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO
1020 AM EST WED JAN 18 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. 


$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-181630-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-120118T1700Z/
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1020 AM EST WED JAN 18 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. 

AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

ZAFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
305 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH A STRONG WIND SETTING UP BEHIND THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 60 TO NEAR 70 MPH THIS
EVENING...THEN FALL BACK A LITTLE BUT REMAIN QUITE GUSTY ALL NIGHT.
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED TO THE EAST OF LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COLD TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE 20S AND TEENS TONIGHT
WITH A RECOVERY OF ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BULK OF STEADIER RAIN WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION BY
EARLY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BASIN.

THE HIGH WIND SCENARIO WILL SET UP THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS PAST TO THE NORTH. LOOKING AT THE SAINT LOUIS UNIVERSITY CIPS
COLD SEASON ANALOGS...THIS EVENT IS SIMILAR AND STRONGER THAN TWO
SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENTS FROM 22ND AND 27TH OF FEBRUARY OF 1997 FOR
WHICH WINDS WERE RESPECTIVELY 63 AND 70 MPH. OUR CURRENT ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT TRAILING THE SURFACE LOW IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THESE PAST
EVENTS...THUS HAVE MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTLOOK FOR A
STRONG BUT SHORT LIVED HIGH WIND EVENT THIS EVENING. 12Z NAM12
BUFKIT FORECAST PROFILES SHOW SEVERAL AREAS OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35
TO 45 MPH WITH 60 TO 65 MPH GUSTS.

THE MOST LIKELY REGIONS OF HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORE TO THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...NORTH TO THE NIAGARA REGION AND EAST
TO THE LOWER GENESEE VALLEY...ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND TO THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION ESPECIALLY FROM HENDERSON BAY TO THE HEAD OF THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. OF PARTICULAR NOTE ARE THE WINDS COMING OFF
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE SHORES OF JEFFERSON COUNTY
WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TRAILING THE LOW WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
ACCELERATE ACROSS THE LAKE WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
RATHER SHORT LIVED WITH ONLY A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF HIGHEST GUSTS
EXPECTED...THEN WIND GUSTS WILL SETTLE BACK TO A 30 TO 40 MPH
RANGE...STILL QUITE IMPRESSIVE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER ON
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE REGION.

AS COLD AIR POURS OVER THE LAKES TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL FALL TO
A -14C TO -16C RANGE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WIND BECOME WELL ALIGNED AT 270-280 DEGREES WHICH WILL
IMPINGE MAINLY UPON THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL
TO CENTRAL NY. WILL HAVE A LAKE SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
ON WEDNESDAY AS STEADY LAKE SNOWS ACCUMULATE GENERALLY 6 TO 8 INCHES
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOW 20S NEAR THE LAKES AND
INTO THE TEENS INLAND AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH LITTLE
RECOVERY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE A VERY ENERGETIC...PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
DURING THIS PERIOD...IT SHOULD NOT BE AS STORMY AS PREVIOUS DAYS.
THAT BEING SAID...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE H5 TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF NORTH AMERICA WILL KEEP SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER IN PLACE
WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
DETAILS...

THIS TIME FRAME WILL START OFF QUITE UNSETTLED AS AN INTENSE SFC LOW
OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL EXIT ACROSS FAR
EASTERN QUEBEC. THE TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EXITING
STORM AND AN APPROACHING SFC RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
KEEP GUSTY WINDS INTACT FOR THE MORNING HOURS WHILE ENOUGH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR CONTINUED ACCUMULATING LAKE SNOWS
SOUTHEAST OF ERIE/ONTARIO.

THE LAKE INDUCED CAP WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF 8-10K
FT FOR BOTH LAKES...BUT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE (SFC HIGH) WILL LOWER THE CAP SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET
WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRYING. THIS WILL HAVE
A SQUELCHING EFFECT ON THE LAKE CONVECTION SO THAT SNOWFALL RATES
AND COVERAGE SHOULD NOTICEABLY DROP OFF DURING THE COURSE OF THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE 310 STEERING FLOW...BOTH LAKES WILL LIKELY HAVE
A LITTLE UPSTREAM PRIMING FROM LAKE HURON AND GEORGIAN BAY...SO
ADDITIONAL DAYTIME SNOW ACCUMS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES
OFF BOTH LAKES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS COMING OVER AND JUST EAST
OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND OVER OSWEGO COUNTY. OTHERWISE WEDNESDAY
WILL FEATURE A RUDE RETURN TO COLD WEATHER FOR THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING AT LEAST 20 DEG F LOWER THAN THOSE FROM
TUESDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT IT WILL DRIFT
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FINE MID WINTER NIGHT
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK
NON-ACCUMULATING LEFTOVER LAKE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE FOUND
EAST OF BOTH LAKES. A FRESH SNOW COVER...ALBEIT IT JUST AN INCH OR
SO OUTSIDE OF LAKE SNOW AREAS...WILL PROMOTE A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW-MID TEENS IN MOST AREAS TO
THE BELOW ZERO NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THESE VALUES ARE
SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE ADVERTISED BY MAINSTREAM GUIDANCE.

OUR ATTENTION THURSDAY MORNING WILL THEN QUICKLY TURN TO ANOTHER
GREAT LAKES LOW. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER MICHIGAN THURSDAY MORNING
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY
WHILE ITS SFC REFLECTION WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH...TRACKING FROM
ABOUT THE SOO TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE PROCESS...AND THIS
WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

A FRESH BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS NEXT SFC LOW. H85 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO ONCE AGAIN DROP OFF TO AROUND -18C...SO RENEWED LAKE
SNOWS WILL BRIEFLY REDEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES. BECAUSE OF THE
SHORT DURATION OF THIS EVENT (LARGELY DUE TO MID LEVEL DRYING)...
ACCUMS SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE SRN TIER AND EAST OF LK ONTARIO TO BETWEEN
10 AND 15 ELSEWHERE.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...BUT WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE MINUS TEENS C...IT WILL BE
GUARANTEED TO BE COLD DAY.

A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS THEN FORECAST TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF INTERESTINGLY TRENDING ITS
CONTINUITY CLOSER TO THE WEAKER SOLUTION ADVERTISED BY THE PAST FEW
RUNS OF THE GFS. GIVEN THIS CHANGE...THE CORRESPONDING NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE PCPN SHIELD WOULD JUST MAKE IT TO THE SRN TIER WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WOULD TEND TO PRODUCE A
FAIR AND COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WILL TWEAK POPS
ACCORDINGLY FROM CONTINUITY...BY NUDGING THEM DOWN NORTH OF THE
FINGER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER A SEASONABLY COLD AND POTENTIALLY SNOWY START TO THIS PERIOD
ON SATURDAY...THE REGION WILL UNDERGO A CONSIDERABLE MODERATING
TREND. A LOW AMPLITUDE PACIFIC BASED FLOW WILL FLOOD THE COUNTRY
WITH SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
A SUGGESTION THAT SOME BLOCKINESS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE NATIONS MID
SECTION BY EARLY IN THE WEEK. EVEN SO...THIS WOULD KEEP VERY MILD
WEATHER OVER OUR REGION INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE AREA PRECEDES A DEEP SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. GENERALLY SEE IFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS WITH THE
STEADY RAIN...BUT THIS WILL IMPROVE IN FLIGHT CATEGORY TO MVFR AFTER
19Z TO 21Z. THEN AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES THE REGION TO THE NORTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY TO AN AVERAGE OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
SUSTAINED AND GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE
GUSTIEST WINDS WILL BE LIMITED TO ONE TO THREE HOURS FOLLOWING FROPA
BUT WILL THEN SETTLE TO PROLONGED PERIOD OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD
TO SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST...AND EVEN LOSS OF CEILINGS FOR SOME
LOCALES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE
-14C TO -16C RANGE WILL PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND TUG HILL PLATEAU. KJHW WILL BE THE SOLE TAF
SITE WITH MAJOR IMPACT FROM THIS LAKE EFFECT WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN
FALLING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AFTER 03Z...IMPROVING TO MVFR AFTER
12Z ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR SLIGHT CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...CHC SNOW SHOWERS SE OF BOTH LAKES.
SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKES
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW CLOSELY.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN
WINDS WITH HIGH END GALES ON BOTH LAKES. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND THE FRONT THEN SETTLE A BIT OVERNIGHT...
BUT STILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LONGER TERM SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO FOLLOW THE CURRENT GALE WARNING. ANOTHER WIND EVENING IS
ON TAP FOR THURSDAY...BUT MAY STAY JUST BELOW GALE WARNING CRITERIA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ001-002-
     010>012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NYZ003>008-013-014-021.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ004>006-008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ020-040-041.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ030.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>045-
         062>065.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1023 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

NYZ003-181530-
MONROE-
1023 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

 HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH 1PM WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001-002-010-011-181530-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
1023 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

 HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH 10 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012-019-020-085-181530-
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
1023 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

 HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

 THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ013-014-021-181530-
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
1023 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

 HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH 1 PM WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ004-005-181530-
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
1023 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

 HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH 1 PM WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006-181530-
OSWEGO-
1023 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

  HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH 1 PM WEDNESDAY.
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

 THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ007-181530-
JEFFERSON-
1023 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ008-181530-
LEWIS-
1023 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH 1 PM WEDNESDAY.
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

 THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-181530-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
1023 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SLZ022-024-181530-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
1023 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ042>045-062>065-181530-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
1023 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF