Lake Effect Snow Advisory 11, NWS Buffalo, NY

697 
WWUS41 KBUF 230913
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
413 AM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

NYZ019-020-085-231715-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.121123T2300Z-121125T0500Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
413 AM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA...CATTARAUGUS AND SOUTHERN ERIE 
  COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES TONIGHT...3 TO 5 INCHES 
  SATURDAY...AND AN INCH OR LESS SATURDAY EVENING...LEADING TO 
  STORM TOTALS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE 
  SNOWS. THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND 
  JUST EAST OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. 

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS AROUND 30 TONIGHT. NEAR STEADY 
  TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S 
  SATURDAY EVENING. 

* IMPACTS...MANY ROADWAYS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK. 
  THIS WILL INCLUDE THE NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY WHICH WILL LIKELY 
  BE EXPERIENCING HEAVIER TRAFFIC DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVELERS. MANY 
  OF THESE MOTORISTS MAY JUST BE TRAVELING THROUGH THE AREA AND 
  MAY NOT BE PREPARED FOR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

434 
WWUS41 KBUF 231524
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1024 AM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

NYZ019-020-085-232330-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.121123T2300Z-121125T0500Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
1024 AM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA...CATTARAUGUS AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES.
  MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
  FROM THE BOSTON HILLS SOUTH INTO SKI COUNTRY...WITH ONLY MINOR
  ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE. 

* TIMING...THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES TONIGHT...3 TO 5 INCHES
  SATURDAY...AND AN INCH OR LESS SATURDAY EVENING...LEADING TO
  STORM TOTALS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. 

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS AROUND 30 TONIGHT. NEAR STEADY 
  TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S 
  SATURDAY EVENING. 

* IMPACTS...MANY ROADWAYS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK...
  ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST WINTER
  DRIVING MANY HAVE EXPERIENCED SINCE FEBRUARY. THOSE TRAVELING
  FOR THE HOLIDAY SHOULD ALLOW SOME EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR
  DESTINATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

209 
WWUS41 KBUF 232049
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
349 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

NYZ012-240500-
/O.EXB.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.121123T2300Z-121124T0900Z/
WYOMING-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WARSAW
349 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...WYOMING COUNTY...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
  THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY.

* TIMING...EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 4 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS
  ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

* IMPACTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PRODUCE SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
  REDUCED VISIBILITY. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST WINTER DRIVING MANY
  HAVE EXPERIENCED SINCE FEBRUARY. THOSE TRAVELING FOR THE HOLIDAY
  SHOULD ALLOW SOME EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-240500-
/O.EXB.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.121124T0400Z-121124T1500Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
349 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST SATURDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...TUG HILL PLATEAU OF OSWEGO...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS
  COUNTIES.

* TIMING...LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES OVERNIGHT AND AROUND AN INCH
  SATURDAY MORNING...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IN
  THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOWS ON THE TUG HILL. AN INCH OR LESS
  ELSEWHERE.

* IMPACTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PRODUCE SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
  REDUCED VISIBILITY. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST WINTER DRIVING MANY
  HAVE EXPERIENCED SINCE FEBRUARY. THOSE TRAVELING FOR THE HOLIDAY
  SHOULD ALLOW SOME EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ085-240500-
/O.EXT.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.121123T2300Z-121124T0900Z/
SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
349 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
  TERRAIN OF THE BOSTON HILLS. 

* TIMING...EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 4 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS
  ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

* IMPACTS...MANY ROADWAYS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK...
  ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST 
  WINTER DRIVING MANY HAVE EXPERIENCED SINCE FEBRUARY. THOSE 
  TRAVELING FOR THE HOLIDAY SHOULD ALLOW SOME EXTRA TIME TO 
  REACH YOUR DESTINATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ019-020-240500-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.121123T2300Z-121125T0500Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN
349 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
SATURDAY NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
  ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
  CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...WITH VERY LITTLE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE.

* TIMING...EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 3 INCHES TONIGHT...4 TO 7 INCHES
  SATURDAY...AND 1 TO 2 INCHES SATURDAY EVENING...LEADING TO STORM
  TOTALS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH TONIGHT BECOMING NORTHWEST SATURDAY.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...MANY ROADWAYS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK...
  ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST 
  WINTER DRIVING MANY HAVE EXPERIENCED SINCE FEBRUARY. THOSE 
  TRAVELING FOR THE HOLIDAY SHOULD ALLOW SOME EXTRA TIME TO 
  REACH YOUR DESTINATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

117 
WWUS41 KBUF 240123
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
823 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

NYZ019-020-241000-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-121125T0500Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN
823 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
SATURDAY NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. MOST OF THE 
  ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE 
  CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...WITH VERY LITTLE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE. 

* TIMING...FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 3 INCHES TONIGHT...4 TO 7 INCHES 
  SATURDAY...AND 1 TO 2 INCHES SATURDAY EVENING...LEADING TO 
  STORM TOTALS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE 
  SNOWS. 

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH TONIGHT BECOMING NORTHWEST SATURDAY.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...MANY ROADWAYS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK... 
  ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST 
  WINTER DRIVING MANY HAVE EXPERIENCED SINCE FEBRUARY. THOSE 
  TRAVELING FOR THE HOLIDAY SHOULD ALLOW SOME EXTRA TIME TO 
  REACH YOUR DESTINATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ012-085-240900-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-121124T0900Z/
WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
823 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...WYOMING COUNTY AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY...MAINLY
  ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
  BOSTON HILLS IN SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY.

* TIMING...FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 4 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE 
  SNOWS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. 

* IMPACTS...MANY ROADWAYS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK...
  ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
  TOWARD CENTRAL WYOMING COUNTY. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST WINTER DRIVING
  MANY HAVE EXPERIENCED SINCE FEBRUARY. THOSE TRAVELING FOR THE
  HOLIDAY SHOULD ALLOW SOME EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-241000-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.121124T0400Z-121124T1500Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
823 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...TUG HILL PLATEAU OF OSWEGO...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS 
  COUNTIES. 

* TIMING...FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES OVERNIGHT AND AROUND AN INCH 
  SATURDAY MORNING...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IN 
  THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOWS ON THE TUG HILL. AN INCH OR LESS 
  ELSEWHERE. 

* IMPACTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PRODUCE SNOW COVERED ROADS AND 
  REDUCED VISIBILITY. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST WINTER DRIVING MANY 
  HAVE EXPERIENCED SINCE FEBRUARY. THOSE TRAVELING FOR THE 
  HOLIDAY SHOULD ALLOW SOME EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR 
  DESTINATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

018 
WWUS41 KBUF 240858
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
358 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2012

NYZ006>008-241000-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-121124T1500Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
358 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. 

WHILE LAKE SNOWS COULD ACCUMULATE AN INCH OR SO EARLY THIS
MORNING...SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

$$

NYZ012-085-241000-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-121124T0900Z/
WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
358 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. 

WHILE LAKE SNOWS COULD ACCUMULATE AN INCH OR TWO TODAY...MORE 
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

$$

NYZ019-020-241700-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-121125T0500Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN
358 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
  ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
  CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...WITH LITTLE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE.

* TIMING...THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 6 AM...3 TO 6 INCHES 
  TODAY...AND UP TO 2 INCHES TONIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...MANY ROADWAYS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK...
  ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST 
  WINTER DRIVING MANY HAVE EXPERIENCED SINCE FEBRUARY. THOSE 
  TRAVELING FOR THE HOLIDAY SHOULD ALLOW SOME EXTRA TIME TO 
  REACH YOUR DESTINATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

RSH

757 
WWUS41 KBUF 241348
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
848 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2012

NYZ021-242000-
/O.EXB.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-121124T2000Z/
ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WELLSVILLE
848 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...ALLEGANY COUNTY

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
  THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
  ALLEGANY COUNTY....BRINGING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALLS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...MANY ROADWAYS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK. THIS
  WILL BE THE FIRST WINTER DRIVING MANY HAVE EXPERIENCED SINCE
  FEBRUARY. THOSE TRAVELING FOR THE HOLIDAY SHOULD ALLOW EXTRA
  TIME TO REACH THEIR DESTINATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ019-020-242200-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-121125T0500Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN
848 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. MOST OF THE 
  ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE 
  CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...WITH LITTLE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE. 

* TIMING...THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES TODAY AND UP TO 2 INCHES TONIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...MANY ROADWAYS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK...
  ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST 
  WINTER DRIVING MANY HAVE EXPERIENCED SINCE FEBRUARY. THOSE 
  TRAVELING FOR THE HOLIDAY SHOULD ALLOW SOME EXTRA TIME TO 
  REACH YOUR DESTINATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

520 
WWUS41 KBUF 242008
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
308 PM EST SAT NOV 24 2012

NYZ021-242115-
/O.EXP.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-121124T2000Z/
ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WELLSVILLE
308 PM EST SAT NOV 24 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

STEADIEST LAKE SNOWS HAVE DIMINISHED.

$$

NYZ019-020-250500-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-121125T0500Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN
308 PM EST SAT NOV 24 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. MOST OF THE 
  ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE 
  CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...WITH LITTLE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE. 

* TIMING...THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
  THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN MOST PERSISTENT BANDS.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...MANY ROADWAYS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK...
  ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST 
  WINTER DRIVING MANY HAVE EXPERIENCED SINCE FEBRUARY. THOSE 
  TRAVELING FOR THE HOLIDAY SHOULD ALLOW SOME EXTRA TIME TO 
  REACH YOUR DESTINATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

498 
WWUS41 KBUF 242109
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
409 PM EST SAT NOV 24 2012

NYZ019-020-250500-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-121125T0500Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN
409 PM EST SAT NOV 24 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. MOST OF THE 
  ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE 
  CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...WITH LITTLE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE. 

* TIMING...THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES TONIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...MANY ROADWAYS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK...
  ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST 
  WINTER DRIVING MANY HAVE EXPERIENCED SINCE FEBRUARY. THOSE 
  TRAVELING FOR THE HOLIDAY SHOULD ALLOW SOME EXTRA TIME TO 
  REACH YOUR DESTINATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-250515-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0005.121125T1800Z-121127T0000Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
409 PM EST SAT NOV 24 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. 

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...FOCUSED ON THE TUG
  HILL. 

* TIMING...EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITHIN THE MOST
  PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LEAD TO ROADS BECOMING SNOW
  COVERED THAT WILL BECOME SLIPPERY AND SLICK. THIS MAY BECOME THE
  FIRST MAJOR SNOWFALL FOR THIS REGION FOR THE WINTER SEASON. 

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM AS WINDS MAY SHIFT THE SNOW BAND
  THROUGH THE WATCH TO ALLOW FOR LESS ACCUMULATION AT ANY ONE
  PARTICULAR SPOT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

THOMAS

795 
WWUS41 KBUF 250145
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
845 PM EST SAT NOV 24 2012

NYZ019-020-250245-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-121125T0500Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN
845 PM EST SAT NOV 24 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. 

LAKE SNOWS HAVE DIMINISHED WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

$$

NYZ006>008-251000-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0005.121125T1800Z-121127T0000Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
845 PM EST SAT NOV 24 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...FOCUSED ON THE TUG 
  HILL. 

* TIMING...EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE WITHIN
  THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LEAD TO ROADS BECOMING SNOW 
  COVERED THAT WILL BECOME SLIPPERY AND SLICK. THIS MAY BECOME 
  THE FIRST MAJOR SNOWFALL FOR THIS REGION FOR THE WINTER 
  SEASON. 

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM AS WINDS MAY SHIFT THE SNOW 
  BAND THROUGH THE WATCH TO ALLOW FOR LESS ACCUMULATION AT ANY 
  ONE PARTICULAR SPOT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

APFFEL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1146 PM EST THU NOV 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR A SEASONABLY MILD NIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKY TO START. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH SOME
RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SEASONABLY COLDER AIR AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS THEN FOLLOWING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
PROBABILITY FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH LATE EVENING...SKIES REMAINED CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WERE JUST TO THE WEST. WITH THIS...IS A
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WHICH WILL LIKELY LIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WERE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WINDS...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
SUCH AS ROCHESTER DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S WITH LIGHT
WINDS...WHILE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AT BUFFALO HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 40S. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE
NIGHTS LOW TEMPERATURES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE A LITTLE ADDITIONAL COOLING IS POSSIBLE. AS THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SPREAD EAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE AS
WINDS MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY...BUT WILL NOT MIX DOWN FOR THE
MOST PART. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE OVERNIGHT...WITH
PARTIAL MIXING OF A 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AT 925 MB.

INITIAL 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN TERMS OF TIMING THE FRONT. BY 12Z
TOMORROW...A SFC LOW WILL BE FOUND JUST NORTH OF LAKE HURON WITH A
COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE ERIE TOWARDS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND BACK INTO SOUTH TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL HELP TO PUSH THIS COLDER AIRMASS ACROSS OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY. MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT FROM THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER ALOFT THERE IS LITTLE JET
SUPPORT...AND IN FACT THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF A 110 KNOT 300 HPA
JET WILL BE OVER OUR REGION. THIS EXIT REGION FAVORS SUBSIDENCE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WHICH IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. WITH THE
SHALLOWER LAYER OF LIFT COMBINED WITH THE BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP
MOISTURE AT THE SFC WILL LIKELY LEAD TO JUST A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT
RAINFALL TOMORROW WITH GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH IN QPF.

DEEPER COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WITH A CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW WITH THE RAIN ALONG THE FRONT NOT LIKELY. AREAS ACROSS
WNY AND EVEN INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A BRISK
WIND AND TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THIS COLD AIR DEEPENS INTO LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF
LAKE ERIE. LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY START OFF AS A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW OFF LAKE ERIE...WITH A QUICK CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW
BY FRIDAY EVENING.

HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE EARLY ACROSS WNY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
50S...WHILE MID AND UPPER 50S WILL BE REACHED ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES. OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME MORE
COMMON AND STRONGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHERE GUSTS 20 TO 35 MPH
ARE LIKELY AS COLDER AIR SERVES FOR A MORE EFFICIENT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER DOWN TO THE SURFACE. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH SOUTHWEST GUSTS ACROSS THE
LAKE ERIE SHORELINE AND NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE UNDERWAY FRIDAY EVENING AS IMPRESSIVE COLD
AIR ADVECTION EVOLVES IN WAKE OFF THE COLD FRONT. COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO AROUND -10C BY SATURDAY MORNING. THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS CONTINUING TO LOOK FAVORABLE WITH LAKE DELTA T/S
NEARING 20C AND LAKE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL TOPPING OUT NEAR 12K FEET.
ADEQUATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPS INTO THE AREA...AUGMENTED
BY APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE. BUFKIT PROFILES CLEARLY SHOW OMEGA
PEGGED JUST SHORT OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...ALTHOUGH WE ARE
NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT THIS GIVEN THE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT OF THE
LAKE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AND DEPTH OF MOISTURE EXTENDING RIGHT UP
THROUGH THE FAVORABLE ZONE. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS IN
PLACE AND PATTERN RECOGNITION...THIS EVENT HAS A SOLID ADVISORY
LOOK TO IT. SHEAR PROFILES AND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS CONTINUING TO
TARGET FAVORED WEST NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE OF
LAKE ERIE AND THE COUNTIES LINING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO...PARTICULARLY EAST OF ROCHESTER. STILL A PERIOD OR SO
AWAY FROM HEADLINE ISSUANCE... THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT.

LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN...AS UPSTREAM SURFACE RIDGING
STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOULD MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO THE BUFFALO METRO
AREA BY LATER SUNDAY MORNING OR DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACKS AROUND TO SOUTHWEST. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWS...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE WEAKENING
TREND WILL BE.

ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES EFFECTIVELY
LOWER THE CAP...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW LEFTOVER FLURRIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA CONTINUING TO
GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
MID WEEK... WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OFF THE CONUS.
HOWEVER...THE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS IS VERY APPARENT WITH
A LARGE SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CANADIAN CONTINUES
TO REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BRINGING
THE TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF REMAINS ON
THE SOUTHERN END WITH THE TRACK ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE GFS TRACK GENERALLY IS IN BETWEEN THE TWO
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE PHASING OF THE SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL
EVENTUALLY DETERMINE THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...BUT AT THIS TIME
FRAME VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT. AT THIS
POINT...WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE HPC FORECAST WHICH IS BASICALLY A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH BETWEEN THE COLDER AND DRIER ECMWF AND
THE WETTER AND MILDER CANADIAN...BUT EVEN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR SOME PRECIPITATION REACH THE REGION IN
THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH SOME POSSIBLE WINTRY
MIXED COMPLICATIONS DEVELOPING. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN
THIS TIME PERIOD AND BEARS WATCHING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
DAYBREAK. THE BIGGEST NEAR TERM IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL BE LLWS. VAD
WIND PROFILE SHOWS WINDS OF AROUND 40 KTS AT 2000 FEET...RESULTING
IN LLWS SINCE THESE ARE NOT MIXING TO THE SURFACE. THIS SHEAR WILL
REMAIN INTO THE MORNING HOURS...POSSIBLY INCREASING SLIGHTLY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...AND WILL
LIKELY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO ALL TAF SITES. THESE SHOULD
ONLY HAVE A MODEST IMPACT ON VSBY/CIGS...ONLY TO THE MVFR CATEGORY.

WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A MORE MIXED ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT DRIER AIR TO
LIMIT THE LAKE RESPONSE UNTIL AFTER 00Z ON SATURDAY AT THE TAF
LOCATIONS. ANY SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW THIS EVENING...AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RAPIDLY COOL. IMPACTS THIS EVENING WILL MAINLY
BE LIMITED TO JHW/ART...WITH WINDS LIKELY TO BE A BIT TOO WSW OFF
LAKE ERIE FOR LAKE SNOWS TO GET INTO BUF...THOUGH IT WILL BE
CLOSE. THE SET UP IS FAVORABLE FOR BETTER DEVELOPED LAKE BANDS TO
LOWER VSBY/CIGS TO IFR OR LOWER.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. LOCALIZED IFR IN AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE LAKES.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW/MVFR
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR IN CHC OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP TO ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE TONIGHT
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT AND STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REACH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL
INCREASE ALOFT...WITH THESE WINDS LARGELY NOT MIXING TO THE
SURFACE. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AS WINDS MIX DOWN-WIND
OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. WHILE GUSTY WINDS MAY NOT BE
CONSTANT...FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT TO
INCLUDE THESE PERIODIC GUSTS WHICH MAY REACH 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WITH MUCH
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND. EXPECT STRONGER WIND GUSTS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL PROMPT SCA ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS WILL NEAR 30 KNOTS ON BOTH LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. THOUGH WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE SOME THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE LAKES THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE MET THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
         FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST
         SATURDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY
         FOR LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1046 AM EST THU NOV 22 2012

NYZ001>003-010>014-021-231600-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-
ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
1046 AM EST THU NOV 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ019-020-085-231600-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
1046 AM EST THU NOV 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW THIS WEEKEND. ALL THOSE TRAVELING ARE
URGED TO LISTEN FOR ANY WINTER WEATHER STATEMENTS WHICH MAY BE
ISSUED CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER SITUATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ004>008-231600-
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
1046 AM EST THU NOV 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
REGION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW THIS WEEKEND. ALL
TRAVELING ARE URGED TO LISTEN FOR ANY WINTER WEATHER STATEMENTS
WHICH MAY BE ISSUED CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER
SITUATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-231600-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
1046 AM EST THU NOV 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF