Gale Warning 29, NWS Buffalo, NY

915 
WHUS71 KBUF 232055
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
355 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

LEZ040-041-240500-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-121124T0800Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
355 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...9 TO 12 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-063>065-240500-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0029.121123T2100Z-121124T1400Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
355 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...10 TO 13 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ030-240500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-121124T1500Z/
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
355 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-240500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-121124T1500Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
355 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-240500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-121124T2300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
355 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...7 TO 10 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

THOMAS

563 
WHUS71 KBUF 240309
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1009 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

LEZ040-041-240800-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-121124T0800Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
1009 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...9 TO 12 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-063>065-241115-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-121124T1400Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
1009 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...10 TO 13 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ030-241115-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-121124T1500Z/
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
1009 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-241115-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-121124T1500Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
1009 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-241115-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-121124T2300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
1009 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...7 TO 10 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

652 
WHUS71 KBUF 240909
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
409 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2012

LEZ040-041-241200-
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0030.121124T0909Z-121124T1200Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
409 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING. 

* WINDS...WEST GALES TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...7 TO 10 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-063>065-241400-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-121124T1400Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
409 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WINDS...WEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...9 TO 12 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ030-241715-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-121125T0100Z/
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
409 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-241715-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-121124T2300Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
409 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-241715-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-121125T1000Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
409 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

RSH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
710 AM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
RAIN SHOWERS...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR THEN FOLLOWING FOR TONIGHT AND
THE WEEKEND. AS THE COLDER AIR CROSSES THE WARMER WATERS OF THE
GREAT LAKES...AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE
LAKES TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES LATER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE...WITH LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AREA RADARS SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE SHOWERS JUST NOW
NEARING THE CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY BORDER.

DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC AS ITS PARENT UPPER TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL SWEEP
ITS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. THIS WILL BRING A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO MOST
LOCATIONS...BEGINNING ACROSS THE FAR WEST AROUND 7/8 AM...THE
GENESEE VALLEY AROUND 10/11AM...AND THE NORTH COUNTRY AROUND
MIDDAY/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...STRONG DRY SLOTTING WILL LEAD TO A SIMILARLY LONG PERIOD OF
MAINLY DRY WEATHER BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WHILE
INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SEND TEMPS ON A NOTICEABLE
DOWNWARD TREND THAT WILL BE COUPLED WITH INCREASINGLY BRISK WESTERLY
WINDS. AS FAR AS ACTUAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...THESE
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 50S BETWEEN MORNING SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AFTER THAT...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP TO
THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ACROSS THE WEST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH READINGS FALLING TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S FURTHER EAST.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...DEEPER WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND
SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. IN GENERAL...THIS WILL BRING
A RENEWED OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SYNOPTIC-SCALE PRECIPITATION...
WHILE ALSO TRIGGERING A LAKE RESPONSE OFF BOTH LAKES AS TEMPS
ALOFT FALL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS WITH
TIME TONIGHT...BOTH THE LAKE-DRIVEN AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO TEND TO CHANGE FROM RAIN OVER TO SNOW...WITH THIS
TRANSITION BECOMING COMPLETE BY THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

LOOKING A LITTLE MORE CLOSELY AT THE EXPECTED LAKE RESPONSE...OFF
LAKE ERIE THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND COLD ENOUGH AIR SHOULD
TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT PRECIP ON A PREVAILING
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
GIVEN THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL FLOW...THIS ACTIVITY WILL INITIALLY
BE SITUATED AS FAR NORTH AS THE IMMEDIATE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS THROUGH
EARLY TO MID EVENING...THROUGH WHICH TIME BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES AND TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A RAIN/SNOW
MIX...WITH SNOW GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE PREVALENT. AFTER THAT
TIME...AND JUST AS THE PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO PRIMARILY SNOW...THE
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND EVENTUALLY SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF
THE NIGHT AS THE STEERING WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND THEN
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE. AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO
COME INTO PLAY AS THE COLUMN COOLS FURTHER...MOISTURE INCREASES IN
THE PRIME DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION...AND STEERING WINDS BECOME
ORIENTED MORE PERPENDICULAR TO THE TERRAIN...ALL OF WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ACCUMULATIONS OF AS MUCH AS 2-4" ACROSS
CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS/SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES BY LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN
THAT SIMILAR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS SAME AREA
ON SATURDAY AND THAT THIS IS A BUSY WEEKEND WITH RESPECT TO HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...WE HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR
THESE THREE ZONES...WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

MEANWHILE OFF LAKE ONTARIO...AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...EVERYTHING
WILL TAKE PLACE A FEW HOURS LATER DUE TO THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE
COLDER AIR AND DEEPER WRAPAROUND MOISTURE. EXPECT THE MAIN BAND OF
LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION TO INITIALLY DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING/
MIDNIGHT ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ON A
SOMEWHAT SHEARED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TUG HILL TO OSWEGO COUNTY BY LATE IN THE NIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS
MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. THIS SAID...GIVEN ITS LATER START AND
FAIRLY QUICK SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT...AND THE SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT /WITH RESPECT TO SHEAR AND MOISTURE/ OVER LAKE
ONTARIO...EXPECT THIS BAND TO PRODUCE LOWER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WHEN COMPARED TO ITS LAKE ERIE COUNTERPART...WITH MOST AFFECTED
LOCATIONS SEEING ONLY AN INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...JUST EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS
CLOSEST TO THE LAKESHORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL BE POURING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD AS PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH
ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY EXIT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
BUT BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHINESS WILL PERSIST AND THIS WILL
ESSENTIALLY GUARANTEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD. AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN ONLY MEAN ONE THING...SO WITHOUT ANY FURTHER DELAY
LETS DIVE INTO THE DETAILS OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

LAKE SNOWS WILL ALREADY BE WELL UNDERWAY SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE BASE OF A RELATIVELY DEEP H5 TROUGH WILL BE
PASSING OVER OUR REGION. AS THIS LARGE SCALE FEATURE MOVES EAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE COLD AIR WILL DEEPEN IN ITS WAKE WITH H85
TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND -10C. THIS WILL INTENSIFY THE
INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKES WITH LICAPES REACHING VALUES OF
500-750 J/KG OVER LK ERIE WITH VALUES CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF
THAT RANGE OVER LK ONTARIO. AS WITH THE INSTABILITY...THE MORE
FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH WILL BE FOUND OVER LK ERIE WHERE
THE WEAK CAP WILL BE ENCOURAGED TO LIFT TO NEARLY 15K FT.

WHILE ITS EASY TO SEE THAT THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL BE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR GENERATING ACCUMULATING LAKE SNOWS OFF LK ERIE...THE
MOST GLARING PARAMETER IN THIS SPECIFIC CASE SHOULD BE THE MOISTURE
PROFILE. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGES AGREE THAT LAKE ERIE WILL HAVE
A STRONG UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON (AND POSSIBLY SUPERIOR)
WHILE ONLY A WEAK CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY IS SUGGESTED ON
SATURDAY FOR THE AIRMASS CROSSING LK ONTARIO. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...
NAM BASED BUFKIT PROFILES DEPICT MUCH GREATER MOISTURE IN THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH AREA OVER LAKE ERIE AS WELL...SUGGESTING MORE
EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCTION. IN ADDITION...THE MOIST WELL ALIGNED 310
FLOW WILL BE ORTHOGONAL TO THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...WHICH WILL ONLY
PROMOTE FURTHER LIFT FOR THIS MOISTURE.

SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH OR MORE PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED OFF OF LK
ERIE ON SATURDAY...WITH DAYTIME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST TO BE IN
THE VCNTY OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS COMING OVER AND
JUST EAST OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED HERE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW...THIS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST A SOLID ADVISORY EVENT
FOR SOUTHERNMOST ERIE AND PARTICULARLY CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS
COUNTIES. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD BE UPGRADED IF
A SIGNIFICANT SINGLE BAND MATERIALIZES AS IS SHOWN BY THE REGIONAL
GEM.

THE LAKE SNOWS SHOULD BE MORE MULTI-BAND IN NATURE OFF LK ONTARIO
ON SATURDAY...WITH SNOWFALL RATES GENERALLY AVERAGING ONE HALF INCH
PER HOUR. THE TRANSITORY NATURE OF THESE BANDS...ALONG WITH THE LESS
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE PROFILE...SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. CURRENT
THINKING IS FOR AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ON SATURDAY FROM ORLEANS
COUNTY TO OSWEGO COUNTY WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS COMING EAST OF
ROCHESTER. THESE VALUES FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO WILL
ALLOW THE DAYSHIFT TO RE-EXAMINE FOR POSSIBLE 'FLAGS' IN A LATER
FORECAST PACKAGE.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...RIDGING CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN AND THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL PRESS TO THE EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BACK THE
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WHILE WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL START TO LOWER THE CAP. THE LAKE SNOWS WILL WEAKEN AS A
RESULT...ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE ERIE WHERE THE UPSTREAM CONNECTION
WILL BE LOST AND RICH MOISTURE WILL BE STRIPPED OUT OF THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. WILL THUS CONTINUE THE TREND OF QUICKLY TAPERING OFF
THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS...ALTHOUGH WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW...THE
IMPROVED FETCH OVER LK ONTARIO SHOULD KEEP HEALTHIER ACTIVITY IN
PLACE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH CONTINUED MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND FURTHER BACKING OF THE
STEERING FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL LIFT THE REMAINING WEAK
LAKE ACTIVITY OFF OF LK ERIE NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO
AREA WHILE MORE ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT WILL ADVECT UP ACROSS THE TUG
HILL AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS WATERTOWN. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
COULD ACCUMULATE ON SUNDAY FROM THIS ACTIVITY EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TOUCH OFF SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE BULK OF THE REGION...WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND OVER THE TUG HILL.

FOR MONDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CROSS OUR REGION WHILE
WARM ADVECTION WILL HELP TO RAISE OUR TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS. THIS WILL COME AT THE EXPENSE OF SEEING MUCH SUN...
AS ALTO-CU SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA CONTINUING TO
GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
MID WEEK... WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OFF THE CONUS.
HOWEVER...THE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS IS VERY APPARENT WITH
A LARGE SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CANADIAN CONTINUES
TO REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BRINGING
THE TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF REMAINS ON
THE SOUTHERN END WITH THE TRACK ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE GFS TRACK GENERALLY IS IN BETWEEN THE TWO
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE PHASING OF THE SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL
EVENTUALLY DETERMINE THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...BUT AT THIS TIME
FRAME VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT. AT THIS
POINT...WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE HPC FORECAST WHICH IS BASICALLY A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH BETWEEN THE COLDER AND DRIER ECMWF AND
THE WETTER AND MILDER CANADIAN...BUT EVEN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR SOME PRECIPITATION REACH THE REGION IN
THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH SOME POSSIBLE WINTRY
MIXED COMPLICATIONS DEVELOPING. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN
THIS TIME PERIOD AND BEARS WATCHING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BEFORE SURFACE WINDS COME UP WITH INCREASED MIXING AND
HELP LESSEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 2 KFT.

OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BRING A
SEVERAL-HOUR-LONG PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT ALL SITES. VFR CONDITIONS
PRECEDING THESE SHOWERS WILL FALL TO MVFR WITH THEIR ARRIVAL...
MAINLY DUE TO LOWER CIGS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR A PERIOD ALONG WITH
INCREASINGLY BRISK WESTERLY WINDS AS A DRY SLOT WORKS THROUGH ALOFT.
THIS SAID...FAIRLY PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED MVFR CIGS.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
PRECIP WILL RETURN IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL COLDER AIR AND
DEEPENING WRAPAROUND MOISTURE...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP TO TRIGGER THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION TO THE LEE OF BOTH LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO INITIALLY DEVELOP EAST OF
THE LAKES ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO
AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES BY LATE TONIGHT AS STEERING WINDS VEER
TO WEST AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST. PTYPE WILL INITIALLY BE A RAIN OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY...THEN WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COOLS. IN GENERAL...EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...EXCEPT IN ANY BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WHERE IFR/LIFR WILL DEVELOP. OF THE TAF SITES...THE BEST PROBABILITY
FOR IFR BY FAR WILL BE AT KJHW...THOUGH THERE ALSO IS A CHANCE OF
IFR AT BOTH KART/KBUF...ESPECIALLY IF THE LAKE BANDS MANAGE TO
DEVELOP A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND EXHIBIT A
QUICKER OVERALL TRANSITION TO SNOW.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...AND IFR IN AREAS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW/MVFR SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF THE
LAKES...OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT INTO CENTRAL
QUEBEC TODAY...WHILE SWINGING A SHARP COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
MODERATE SOUTHERLIES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY VEER TO
WESTERLY AND FRESHEN MARKEDLY FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE...BEFORE TURNING
MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATER ON TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
HIGH-END ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING BUT
LIKELY REMAINING JUST A LITTLE UNDER GALE FORCE.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL THEN DECREASE SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE COURSE OF
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE PICKING UP SOMEWHAT AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...WITH ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE MET THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT
     EST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST
         SATURDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
611 AM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

NYZ001-002-010>013-021-241115-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ALLEGANY-
611 AM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ019-020-085-241115-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
611 AM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ003>008-014-241115-
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-ONTARIO-
611 AM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
REGION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW THIS WEEKEND. ALL
TRAVELING ARE URGED TO LISTEN FOR ANY WINTER WEATHER STATEMENTS
WHICH MAY BE ISSUED CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER
SITUATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-241115-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
611 AM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

RSH