Special Weather Statement, NWS Burlington, VT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
301 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH A COOLING TREND ANTICIPATED BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAINLY
TO ADJUST TEMPS UP AT BIT AS BTV ALREADY HIT 89 DEGREES AND A FEW
OTHER SITES TRENDING WARMER AS WELL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED ALONG A LINE FROM MALONE TO MONTPELIER WITH SOME SIGNS
OF MORE CONVECTION POPPING UP SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE DACKS AND
SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS WITH THE
THINKING THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOWERING THROUGH TIME BASED ON INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
NEVERTHELESS...THERE WILL BE SCATTERED STORMS OUT THERE...SOME
WITH HEAVY RAIN. MAX TEMPS PROBABLY BEING REALIZED NOW DUE TO
CLOUD COVER...AND SHOULD STABILIZE AND SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SUNDAY...TONIGHT...AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WL DECREASE AS SFC HEATING IS LOST.
HOWEVER...LEFTOVER MOISTURE WL KEEP DWPTS IN THE 60S WITH LIGHT
TRRN DRIVEN SFC WINDS. THIS WL RESULT IN AREAS OF
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WHICH RECEIVE RAIN ON SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...RH VALUES WL BE HIGH WITH A MUGGY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE U50S NEK/DACKS TO U60S CPV/SLV.

FCST FOCUS WL BE CHCS FOR CONVECTION...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS. ON
MONDAY...5H VORT APPROACHES SLV BY 00Z...BUT OVERALL DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND INSTABILITY IS WEAK. WL MENTION SCHC
POPS FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING S/W ENERGY. BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WL BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF OUR CWA THRU 06Z TUES. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 16C
SUPPORT HIGHS BACK INTO THE M80S MTNS TO L90S WARMER VALLEYS. ON
MONDAY NIGHT...S/W ENERGY CONTS TO MOVE ACRS OUR NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ZNS...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH. WL CONT TO
MENTION SCHC POPS...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F.

TUESDAY...SFC LOW PRES TRACKS TO OUR NORTH...WHILE ANOTHER SURGE OF
WAA DEVELOPS ACRS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRNT. SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO HOW WARM TEMPS WL BE ON TUES...WITH MAV SHOWING 89F
FOR BTV...WHILE MET HAS 96F. GIVEN...A VERY WARM START AND PROGGED
85H TEMPS NEAR 20C BY BOTH THE GFS/NAM...WL MENTION HIGHS IN THE
U80S MTNS TO L/M 90S. IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST FLW AHEAD OF FRNT WL
PUSH HIGHER DWPTS INTO OUR REGION...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMIDITY.
BEST 5H S/W ENERGY AND SFC CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SFC BOUNDARY
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN CWA AROUND 00Z. WL MENTION CHC POPS AFT 18Z
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW CAPE VALUES BTWN
1800 AND 2000 J/KG AND 0 TO 6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 40 KNTS WITH
APPROACHING TROF. TIMING OF SYSTEM AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WL
DETERMINE THE AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 249 PM EDT SUNDAY...COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. RIDGE OVER CENTRAL US RE-ESTABLISHES FROM MID
WEEK ONWARD...WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. CENTER
OF UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
LOW LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST AS WELL...WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PERIODIC WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER LOW AND THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER WITH LIMITED MOISTURE COULDN'T GO ABOVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS ON THE TIMING OF A
SHORTWAVE KICKER TO DISLODGE THE EASTERN TROUGH. AS A RESULT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION AND TEMP FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS MVFR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN SHOWERS. SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM AFT 16Z IN THE
ADIRONDACKS...AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGH
OVERNIGHT...AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VIS WILL DEVELOP. LOWER CIGS/VIS
AT THE USUAL KSLK AND KMPV. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AFT 12Z MONDAY
AND BE VFR BY 14Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MVFR IN
SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING.

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR LOWERING TO MVFR AT TIMES
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
IMPORTANT RADAR UPGRADES ARE IN PROGRESS...

THE WSR-88D IN FORT DRUM NEW YORK (KTYX) IS CURRENTLY DOWN FOR ITS
SCHEDULED DUAL-POLARIZATION UPGRADE. WORK IS NEARLY COMPLETED, AND
THE RADAR WILL LIKELY RETURN TO SERVICE ON MONDAY.

THE WSR-88D IN COLCHESTER VERMONT (KCXX) IS SCHEDULED NEXT FOR ITS
DUAL-POLARIZATION UPGRADE. WORK IS SCHEDULED TO BEGIN TUESDAY
(7/17)...AND THE RADAR WILL THEN BE DOWN FOR 4-7 DAYS ONCE WORK
COMMENCES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
EQUIPMENT...HANSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
442 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-160845-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-
WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
442 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG...WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
226 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

VTZ003-004-006>008-010-151930-
CALEDONIA VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
226 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH CALEDONIA...
EASTERN WASHINGTON...NORTH CENTRAL ORANGE...SOUTHEASTERN LAMOILLE...
SOUTHEASTERN ORLEANS AND SOUTHWESTERN ESSEX COUNTIES...

AT 220 PM EDT...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ACROSS
WESTERN CALEDONIA AND EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...MOVING EAST AT
10 MPH.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. RADAR ESTIMATES OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
FALLEN IN THE PAST HOUR.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
SOUTH WOODBURY...MARSHFIELD...WEST GROTON...STILLWATER STATE PARK...
WOLCOTT...LOWER CABOT...HARDWICK...CABOT...NORTH WOLCOTT...EAST
CABOT...SOUTH WALDEN...PEACHAM...

BE CAREFUL WHEN DRIVING. PONDING WATER ON ROADWAYS CAN CREATE
DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY.

LAT...LON 4440 7175 4439 7179 4435 7181 4433 7187
      4434 7191 4432 7202 4428 7206 4425 7204
      4421 7205 4414 7259 4452 7270 4485 7198

MUCCILLI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
308 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0206 PM     HAIL             1 WNW WEST DANVILLE     44.42N  72.22W
07/15/2012  M0.75 INCH       CALEDONIA          VT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1200255

MUCCILLI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
325 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

NYZ028-030-031-034-035-152015-
EASTERN CLINTON NY-EASTERN ESSEX NY-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN NY-
WESTERN CLINTON NY-WESTERN ESSEX NY-
325 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...A CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
CLINTON...NORTH CENTRAL ESSEX AND SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

AT 317 PM EDT...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAIN WAS LOCATED FROM CANNON CORNERS TO 5 MILES EAST OF AXTON
LANDING...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...UP TO ONE INCH IN
ONE HOUR AND ARE MOVING INTO AN AREA WHICH HAS ALREADY RECEIVED
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE INCH. THIS WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND
ON ROADS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THERE MAY BE RAPID RISES ON
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH...AND SMALL PEA-SIZED HAIL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
CANNON CORNERS...SARANAC LAKE...CHAZY LAKE...RIVERVIEW...RAY BROOK...
ALTONA...UNION FALLS...DANNEMORA...MOOERS...LAKE PLACID...
MOFFITTSVILLE...

BE CAREFUL WHEN DRIVING. PONDING WATER ON ROADWAYS CAN CREATE
DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY.

LAT...LON 4453 7343 4426 7390 4412 7440 4501 7384
      4502 7339

MUCCILLI