Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Burlington, VT

137 
WWUS51 KBTV 172019
SVSBTV

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
419 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

NYC019-031-033-089-172045-
/O.CON.KBTV.SV.W.0060.000000T0000Z-120717T2045Z/
ESSEX NY-CLINTON NY-FRANKLIN NY-ST. LAWRENCE NY-
419 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL ST. LAWRENCE...SOUTHERN FRANKLIN...SOUTH CENTRAL CLINTON
AND NORTHERN ESSEX COUNTIES IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...

AT 415 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THE STORM WAS NEAR LAKE PLACID...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
  ST. HUBERTS...KEENE VALLEY...

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 800 8 6 3 4 2 7
9...OR BY SUBMITTING A STORM REPORT AT WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GET TO SAFETY IMMEDIATELY WHEN THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. WINDS
MAY KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES AND DAMAGE BUILDINGS. LARGE HAIL
MAY CAUSE INJURY AND DAMAGE PROPERTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

LAT...LON 4458 7539 4461 7440 4457 7403 4434 7338
      4398 7381 4410 7429 4412 7431 4418 7425
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 313DEG 49KT 4424 7395

$$
KGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...AS EXPECTED, IT'S GETTING BUSY. RADAR
SCOPE IS FILLING IN WITH STRONG/SEVERE T-STORMS THAT HAVE ERUPTED
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH. STILL ANTICIPATE PRIMARY
THREATS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS, THOUGH HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL
BE WATCHING FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AS WELL. NOT TO MENTION THE
LIGHTNING. AS I'M TYPING, THE MASSIVE THUNDERSTORM MOVING THROUGH
ST LAWRENCE COUNTY IS PRODUCING ABOUT 250 CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN A 5 MINUTE PERIOD (THATS 50 EACH MINUTE).
QUITE IMPRESSIVE NO MATTER HOW YOU SLICE THAT STAT.

TEMPERATURES WARMED UP SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED --
IN FACT, A NUMBER OF PLACES WERE WELL INTO THE 90S (AND STILL
ARE), ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS CLOSE TO 70. LOCAL MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES A LOT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE. TALKING CAPE VALUES OF
3000-4000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SO, THOSE STORMS WE HAVE
WON'T BE WEAKENING ANYTIME SOON.

THE SEVERE T-STORM WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL 9PM. PERHAPS WE'LL
BE ABLE TO CANCEL IT A BIT EARLY, BUT WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
THINGS PLAY OUT.

ONCE WE GET PAST MIDNIGHT, ACTIVITY WILL HAVE DIMINISHED, SO THE
SECOND PART OF THE NIGHT WILL BE QUIET. STILL ON THE MUGGY SIDE AS
THE COOL FRONT WILL SLOWLY TAKE ITS TIME GETTING HERE.

AS I SAID EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON -- BUCKLE UP FOR A BUMPY RIDE THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS
THE FRONT SLOWLY OOZES THROUGH THE REGION. MAY BE A LIGHT SHOWER
WAY DOWN SOUTH, SO CONTINUED THE IDEA OF LOW CHANCES THERE.
OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE A GENERALLY SUNNY DAY WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY
FALLING DURING THE DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 12C IN
THE NORTH TO 15C DOWN SOUTH, SO WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE 80S, MAYBE CLOSE TO 90F DOWN IN
SPRINGFIELD. AT LEAST THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE,
FALLING INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, SO
PRETTY MUCH HIGH AND DRY. 850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING TO THE
8-12C LEVEL, SO HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S WITH 40S IN THE COOLER
AREAS, SO IT MIGHT BE A GREAT NIGHT TO OPEN THE WINDOWS AND PUT ON
A COUPLE OF BLANKETS. STAYED CLOSED TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 319 PM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WITH ORIGINS OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO SATURDAY WITH A NICE STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER. ASD THE HIGH SLIDES EAST ON SUNDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH DROPS SE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOOKS LIKE WARMTH AND INSTABILITY/0-6KM SHEAR (1500 J/KG/ 35KT)
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ALLOWING FOR A NORTHERLY
FLOW COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER AS ANOTHER HIGH DROPS OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT A FEW 40S IN THE COLD SPOTS SATURDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS. AREAS NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL BE MILDER WITH
WATER TEMPS NOW IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM
ALONG A COLD FRONT THROUGH 01Z WITH LOCALLY IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 KTS. HAVE INCLUDED TS
AND VCTS IN TAFS MAINLY 18-02Z BUT PLAN TO AMEND IF STORMS
APPROACH THE AIRPORT LOCATIONS DIRECTLY. PARTIAL CLEARING AND WIND
SHIFTING TO LIGHT W-NW OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LIFR FORMING
IN FG AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. PSBL VLIFR IN FG KMPV KSLK 07-12Z EACH MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
IMPORTANT RADAR UPGRADES ARE IN PROGRESS...

THE WSR-88D IN FORT DRUM NEW YORK (KTYX) IS OPERATING WITH DUAL
POLARIZATION TECHNOLOGY.

THE WSR-88D IN COLCHESTER VERMONT (KCXX) IS SCHEDULED NEXT FOR ITS
DUAL-POLARIZATION UPGRADE. WORK WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY (7/18). ONCE
WORK COMMENCES THE RADAR WILL BE DOWN FOR APPROXIMATELY 4-7 DAYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
EQUIPMENT...BTV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
357 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-180800-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-
WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
357 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. THE POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH FLASH FLOODING AND LARGE HAIL BEING
SECONDARY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY. WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1150 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-171900-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-
CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-
WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
EASTERN RUTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MASSENA...MALONE...PLATTSBURGH...
STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...
LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...TICONDEROGA...OGDENSBURG...POTSDAM...
GOUVERNEUR...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT...
ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...
MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...
RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...
KILLINGTON
1150 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER, AND MOVE INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT
AND NEW YORK BY MID-AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST, AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT BY EARLY EVENING.

SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE,
PRIMARILY PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. HAIL
IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

ALL THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL, AND THERE IS A RISK
OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. ALTHOUGH FLOODING COULD OCCUR
ANYWHERE, NORTHERN VERMONT IS MORE SUCCEPTIBLE DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL.

DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO A THREAT WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM.

PERSONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY NEED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
THE FAST CHANGING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON, AND BE READY TO MOVE INDOORS
WHEN THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

PERSONS PLANNING TO BE ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
POSTPONE ACTIVITIES, OR STAY CLOSE TO SHORE TO BE ABLE TO QUICKLY
REACH SAFETY BEFORE ANY STORM APPROACHES.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO, LOCAL MEDIA, OR
WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR WEATHER UPDATES THIS AFTERNOON.

NASH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
230 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

NYZ026-027-029-030-087-171930-
NORTHERN FRANKLIN NY-NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN NY-
SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-
230 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN FRANKLIN
AND NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTIES...

AT 230 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 15
MILES NORTH OF ATHENS TO ROOSEVELTOWN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. EXPECT DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND IN
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THERE MAY BE RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
RAYMONDVILLE...FORT COVINGTON CENTER...WEST BANGOR...NORWOOD...
OGDENSBURG...DICKINSON...RENSSELAER FALLS...HEUVELTON...PYRITES...
SANTA CLARA...AZURE MOUNTAIN...WEST PIERREPONT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

LAT...LON 4500 7474 4501 7456 4475 7399 4453 7392
      4446 7506 4465 7557 4478 7541 4488 7522
      4503 7483

LAHIFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
332 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0321 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W POTSDAM             44.67N  75.03W
07/17/2012                   ST. LAWRENCE       NY   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN ON MORLEY-POTSDAM ROAD OUTSIDE OF POTSDAM

0321 PM     HAIL             2 W POTSDAM             44.67N  75.03W
07/17/2012  M0.88 INCH       ST. LAWRENCE       NY   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN ON MORLEY-POTSDAM ROAD OUTSIDE OF POTSDAM

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1200256
EVENT NUMBER BTV1200257

MAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HANNAWA FALLS           44.61N  74.97W
07/17/2012                   ST. LAWRENCE       NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE TREES UPROOTED OR SNAPPED - ESTIMATED WIND
            SPEED 65 MPH BY LOCAL POLICE

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1200258

MAB