Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Burlington, VT

114 
WWUS51 KBTV 171815
SVSBTV

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
215 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

NYC019-033-089-171830-
/O.CON.KBTV.SV.W.0056.000000T0000Z-120717T1830Z/
CLINTON NY-FRANKLIN NY-ST. LAWRENCE NY-
215 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE...NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND NORTHWESTERN
CLINTON COUNTIES IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...

AT 210 PM EDT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED PRODUCING ONE INCH
DIAMETER HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THE STORM WAS
NEAR NORTH BANGOR...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
  MALONE...WHIPPLEVILLE...BURKE...BRAINARDSVILLE...

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 800 8 6 3 4 2 7
9...OR BY SUBMITTING A STORM REPORT AT WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GET TO SAFETY IMMEDIATELY WHEN THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. WINDS
MAY KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES AND DAMAGE BUILDINGS. LARGE HAIL
MAY CAUSE INJURY AND DAMAGE PROPERTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

LAT...LON 4500 7474 4501 7363 4467 7369 4489 7514
      4493 7509 4495 7501 4499 7498 4499 7491
      4503 7484
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 277DEG 32KT 4486 7432

$$
KGM

537 
WWUS51 KBTV 171826
SVSBTV

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
226 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

NYC019-033-089-171836-
/O.EXP.KBTV.SV.W.0056.000000T0000Z-120717T1830Z/
CLINTON NY-FRANKLIN NY-ST. LAWRENCE NY-
226 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE...
NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND NORTHWESTERN CLINTON COUNTIES IN NORTHERN NEW
YORK WILL EXPIRE AT 230 PM EDT...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. THEREFORE THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ALLOWED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TO EXPIRE.

WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 800 8 6 3 4 2 7
9...OR BY SUBMITTING A STORM REPORT AT WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

LAT...LON 4500 7474 4501 7363 4467 7369 4489 7514
      4493 7509 4495 7501 4499 7498 4499 7491
      4503 7484
TIME...MOT...LOC 1826Z 277DEG 32KT 4485 7418

$$
KGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
101 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...BEFORE MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY...AND
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. OTHER THAN A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT WEDNESDAY...THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE COOLER AND DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1250 PM EDT TUESDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING IT TO GET RATHER BUSY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE JUST
FEATURES MINOR TWEAKS, PRIMARILY TO POP FIELDS, BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND GUIDANCE FROM VARIOUS SHORT TERM MODELS (LOCAL
WRF MODELS AND HRRR).

STILL ANTICIPATE PRIMARY ACTION TO POP ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT
IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN ONTARIO/SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF BOTH OTTAWA AND MONTREAL. CLEARING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT, HAS MADE THE ATMOSPHERE QUITE UNSTABLE. CAPE
PUSHING 2500 J/KG IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, NEAR 1000 J/KG
ELSEWHERE. LOCAL MESO ANALYSIS STILL SHOWING SOME CIN ACROSS
VERMONT, SO STILL A CAP IN PLACE. NOT SO MUCH TO OUR WEST -- IN
FACT, CELLS ARE NOW POPPING QUICK IN ONTARIO WHERE THE AIRMASS IS
THE JUCIEST.

ANTICIPATE SOME SORT OF SEVERE WATCH TO BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON,
SO STAY TUNED.

ALSO WILL BE MONITORING FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THINK IN GENERAL IT'S
RATHER LOW, BUT ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH, NEAR 2 INCHES, AND THERE
IS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS TO HAPPEN AS THE LINE
PUSHES SOUTHWARD. THINKING RIGHT NOW THAT NORTHERN/NORTHEAST
VERMONT HAS HIGHER RISK OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO THE RAIN THIS MORNING.

ANYWAY, BUCKLE UP FOR A BUMPY RIDE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 454 AM EDT TUESDAY...FOR WEDNESDAY...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT BY DAYS END. THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT IT MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT...
WHICH COULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT IN CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHERN ZONES
WEDNESDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH.

IT WILL BE COOLER AND MORE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S...AND DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S. A
GENERAL CLEARING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE 50S...EXCEPT 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN
CANADA THURSDAY...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE REGION
FROM EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT. RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND PROVIDING A NICE
STRETCH OF DRY WX. MDLS SHOW UPPER TROUGH THAT MAY LINGER OVER THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF
PRECIP. STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE MAY PROVIDE TOO DRY AN
AIRMASS...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT INCR CLDS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES OF VT LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SATURDAY
NIGHT MVG OFFSHORE...ALLOWING FOR WK FRNTL BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY
TRAVERSE AREA. LATEST GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW WK QPF POTENTIAL AS FRNT
WEAKENS. WILL LEAVE POPS DOWN NEAR SL CHANCE ATTM. TROUGH STALLS
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH RIDGE WELL OFFSHORE SO PLAN ON
LEAVING MENTION FOR -RW IN FOR NOW. CLRING RESUMES LATE MONDAY
INTO MON NGT AS ANOTHER RIDGE WORKS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPS
THRU PERIOD MAINLY NORMAL THRU EXTENDED. SOME LOWS FOR
THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS WILL BE BLW NORMAL WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
INITIALLY...THEN RIDGE CREST OVER CWA WITH CLR SKIES FRI NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AS -RW/-TRW
BEGINS TO WORK INTO AREA. VSBY DOWN TO 3-5SM AT TIMES WITH RAIN
AND FOG. WINDS WSW 5 TO 15KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. SOME LLWS AT
MSS/SLK THRU 14Z. AFT 00Z WITH FRNT...FG WILL DEVELOP AND LWR VSBY
AROUND 3-6SM(1SM MPV/SLK) AND WINDS WILL SHIFT WNW.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH
00Z THURSDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE/MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD. SOME POSSIBLE IFR MIST/FOG TUESDAY EVENING AT
MPV/SLK WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. 00Z THURSDAY
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
IMPORTANT RADAR UPGRADES ARE IN PROGRESS...

THE WSR-88D IN FORT DRUM NEW YORK (KTYX) HAS BEEN RETURNED TO
NORMAL OPERATIONS.

THE WSR-88D IN COLCHESTER VERMONT (KCXX) IS SCHEDULED NEXT FOR ITS
DUAL-POLARIZATION UPGRADE. WORK WAS SCHEDULED TO BEGIN TUESDAY
(7/17)...BUT DUE TO IMPENDING SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL
WEDNESDAY (7/18). ONCE WORK COMMENCES THE RADAR WILL BE DOWN FOR
APPROXIMATELY 4-7 DAYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
357 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-180800-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-
WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
357 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. THE POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH FLASH FLOODING AND LARGE HAIL BEING
SECONDARY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY. WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1150 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-171900-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-
CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-
WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
EASTERN RUTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MASSENA...MALONE...PLATTSBURGH...
STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...
LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...TICONDEROGA...OGDENSBURG...POTSDAM...
GOUVERNEUR...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT...
ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...
MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...
RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...
KILLINGTON
1150 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER, AND MOVE INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT
AND NEW YORK BY MID-AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST, AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT BY EARLY EVENING.

SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE,
PRIMARILY PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. HAIL
IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

ALL THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL, AND THERE IS A RISK
OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. ALTHOUGH FLOODING COULD OCCUR
ANYWHERE, NORTHERN VERMONT IS MORE SUCCEPTIBLE DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL.

DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO A THREAT WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM.

PERSONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY NEED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
THE FAST CHANGING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON, AND BE READY TO MOVE INDOORS
WHEN THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

PERSONS PLANNING TO BE ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
POSTPONE ACTIVITIES, OR STAY CLOSE TO SHORE TO BE ABLE TO QUICKLY
REACH SAFETY BEFORE ANY STORM APPROACHES.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO, LOCAL MEDIA, OR
WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR WEATHER UPDATES THIS AFTERNOON.

NASH