Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Brownsville, TX

248 
WWUS54 KBRO 161921
SVSBRO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
221 PM CDT MON APR 16 2012

TXC261-161930-
/O.CON.KBRO.SV.W.0027.000000T0000Z-120416T1930Z/
KENEDY-
221 PM CDT MON APR 16 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL KENEDY COUNTY...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PENASCAL WIND FARM.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND ANY WIND DAMAGE TO
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE BY CALLING 956-504-1432.

&&


LAT...LON 2685 9739 2686 9740 2689 9739 2691 9744
      2678 9746 2683 9747 2685 9755 2679 9749
      2680 9747 2675 9746 2693 9780 2709 9771
      2699 9744 2691 9744 2691 9740 2697 9739
      2696 9737 2689 9736
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 269DEG 16KT 2693 9753

$$

64

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1250 PM CDT MON APR 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A LINE OF STORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE THREE TAFS
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS ASSOCIATED TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG HIDALGO AND BROOKS COUNTIES. EXPECT ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS
WITH THESE STORMS AND LARGE HAIL. THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THERE IS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WATCH FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFF
TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 823 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
KENEDY...BROOKS...WILLACY...HIDALGO AND CAMERON COUNTIES UNTIL 3
PM THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LARGE HAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...GENERALLY BKN TO OVC MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY CIGS WILL LIFT TO SCT AND UP TO
AROUND 3500 FT THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A FRONT THAT
CUTS FROM NEAR FALCON TO HEBBRONVILLE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS UNTIL AROUND 03Z WHEN ANY PRECIP WILL LIKELY
SHIFT MORE TOWARDS MODERATE RAIN AND SHOWERS. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY
NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING. LOW CEILINGS OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...CONTINUING CLOSE NEAR TERM
METEOROLOGICAL WATCH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE CWA
CURRENTLY IS POSITIONED IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE MAIN UPPER
JET STREAK ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...AND WE
ARE ALSO GETTING AT LEAST SOME INFLUENCE FROM A SUBTROPICAL JET
MAXIMUM MOVING OVER FAR SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE
NET RESULT IS STRONG NET DIVERGENCE ALOFT...WHICH IS WORKING BOTH TO
MODIFY OUR THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...SLOWLY ERODING EXISTING
CAPPING...AND BUILDING A SURFACE TROUGH/CYLCONE OVER NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO. THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DECOUPLED OVER LAND TONIGHT BUT LOWER
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG WITH KBRO VWP SHOWS A
RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER OF 30KT WINDS FROM 0-8KFT. EXPECT THE BEST
850-925MB WINDS TO BE ROUGHLY FROM ABOUT HARLINGEN EASTWARD THIS
MORNING...AND THAT AREA MAY EXPERIENCE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CLOSE TO STATIONARY
WITH WINDS ALOFT ESSENTIALLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...THIS WILL
CHANGE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AND THE
WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY ALOFT.

THE NET RESULT IN OUR WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE AN
EXPECTATION FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP OVER THE CWA...ALONG...
AND NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND PERHAPS JUST AHEAD OF IT LATER
THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY AND MODERATE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR...SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
0-6KM SHEAR IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE 0-1KM
SHEAR AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DUE TO THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH IN THE EASTERN MOST REACHES OF THE CWA POTENTIALLY MORE
CONDUCIVE TO ISOLATED TORNADOGENESIS. THE SLOW MOVING FRONT AND
SHALLOW FRONTAL SLOPE WARRANT KEEPING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
COMPLETELY CLEARS. STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE SLOW AND
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONDITIONALITY...POTENTIAL AREAL COVERAGE...AND
DROUGHT CONDITIONS HOWEVER APPEAR TO PREVENT THE NEED FOR A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THIS MORNING.

TO SUMMARIZE...WE EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TODAY. SOME
OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE FREEZING LEVEL...A KEY COMPONENT
IN HAIL FORMATION HOWEVER IS MUCH HIGHER THAN WHAT IT WAS THE DAY OF
THE MIDDLE VALLEY HAIL STORM...SO A REPEAT OF SUCH COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF BASEBALL TO GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL IS QUITE UNLIKELY. THERE IS AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN THE FORM OF WET
MICROBURSTS...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO...BUT THE PARAMETERS FOR
TORNADOES ARE THE MOST MARGINAL OUT OF ALL OF THE SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS. HEAVY RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY OF ALL OF THE FORMS OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE SLOW
MOVING STORMS DEVELOP. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS
THAT BROUGHT THE SIGNIFICANT CONV TO TX OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS
WILL BE SHIFTING EAST AWAY FROM TX ALLOWING FOR A MORE STABLE AND
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEAK TO MODERATE MID
LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TX FOR WED AND THURS
MAINTAINING GENERALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER MAJOR MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LOWER
48 STATES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL IN TURN PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS MODELS PUSH THE NEXT FRONT THROUGH DEEP
SOUTH TX FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS
ARE ALSO IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LIMITED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT FRONT. SO FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
THE 20 TO 30 % POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH ONLY SOME MINOR DROPS IN TEMPS.
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS IS PRETTY GOOD SO
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SLACKEN AND BECOME MORE MARGINAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS SEAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT. MORE MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN MARINE CONCERN IN THE
LONGER RANGE PERIOD IS THE EXPECTED FROPA THIS COMING WEEKEND.
UNTIL THEN THE MARINE CONDITIONS FROM LATE TUES INTO FRIDAY WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. HOWEVER EXPECT THE GULF WATERS TO REACH
UP NEAR SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ251-
     256-257.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ251-
     256-257.

GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/59

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
939 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

TXZ251-254>257-171000-
KENEDY-INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-
COASTAL CAMERON-
939 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
KENEDY...WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LARGE HAIL.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY. A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AREA BEACHES
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

TXZ250-253-171000-
BROOKS-HIDALGO-
939 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HIDALGO AND BROOKS COUNTIES
UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LARGE
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-171000-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
939 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE
AND THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
MARINE SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TODAY
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE.

TXZ248-249-252-171000-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-STARR-
939 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING...AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR FALCON DAM TO FALFURRIAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
911 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0837 AM     TORNADO          2 E SARITA              27.22N  97.77W
04/16/2012                   KENEDY             TX   NWS OFFICE

            TORNADO REPORTED AT KENEDY RANCH IN KENEDY COUNTY...
            APPROXIMATELY 3 MILES SOUTH OF RIVERA. NWS CRP PASSED
            ALONG THE REPORT FROM A MEMBER OF THE PUBLIC IN KLEBERG
            COUNTY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BRO1200030

EB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1246 PM CDT MON APR 16 2012

TXZ250-251-161830-
BROOKS-KENEDY-
1246 PM CDT MON APR 16 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT RURAL NORTHEAST BROOKS COUNTY...

...AT 1245 A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
FALFURRIAS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. IT WILL AFFECT RURAL EASTERN
BROOKS COUNTY AND RURAL NORTHWESTERN KENEDY COUNTY...UNTIL 130 PM
CDT. DIME SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED.

64

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1250 PM CDT MON APR 16 2012

TXZ250-251-161830-
BROOKS-KENEDY-
1250 PM CDT MON APR 16 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEAST BROOKS AND NORTHWEST
KENEDY COUNTIES...

A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT RURAL EASTERN
BROOKS COUNTY AND RURAL NORTHWESTERN KENEDY COUNTY...UNTIL 130 PM
CDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND.
SOME DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS
EXPECTED.
&&
WHEN DRIVING THROUGH HEAVY RAIN...SLOW DOWN. ALWAYS LEAVE A SAFE
DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER VEHICLES. WHEN USING WIPERS...TURN ON
HEADLIGHTS. AVOID DRIVING THROUGH PUDDLES THAT COULD HIDE POTHOLES OR
CAUSE HYDROPLANING. MAKE SURE YOUR HEADLAMPS...TIRES...AND WIPERS ARE
IN GOOD CONDITION. KEEP AN EMERGENCY KIT WHICH INCLUDES A
FLASHLIGHT...FLARES...AND SIMPLE HAND TOOLS.

SEVEN THOUSAND PEOPLE DIE IN WEATHER RELATED AUTOMOBILE ACCIDENTS
EACH YEAR... MANY DUE TO POOR VISIBILITY AND WET ROADS.

REMEMBER: VISIBILITY AND TRACTION LEAVE TIME FOR REACTION!

59

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
122 PM CDT MON APR 16 2012

TXZ253-161900-
HIDALGO-
122 PM CDT MON APR 16 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN HIDALGO COUNTY...

A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT LA
JOYA...PENITAS...AND ABRAM-PEREZVILLE...UNTIL 200 PM CDT. PENNY SIZE
HAIL IS EXPECTED AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

64

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
131 PM CDT MON APR 16 2012

TXZ250-251-161915-
BROOKS-KENEDY-
131 PM CDT MON APR 16 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN KENEDY COUNTY...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH...WILL AFFECT
RURAL EASTERN BROOKS COUNTY AND RURAL NORTHERN KENEDY COUNTY...UNTIL
215 PM CDT. PENNY SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

64