Special Weather Statement, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
445 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TO THE REGION INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
430 PM UPDATE...

*** A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY INTO THIS EVENING ***

POST FRONTAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS COMPENSATING FOR THE LACK OF FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH ML CAPES UP TO 2000
J/KG...UP TO 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
AROUND 6C/KM WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCT TSTMS WITH ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST
MA. THESE PARAMETERS INCLUDING AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
OF 100 KT WITH LFQ OVER THE REGION AT 00Z WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
FEW STORMS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. PWATS UP TO 1.6
INCHES WILL ALSO INCREASE THE RISK FOR MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
WITH ANY GIVEN STORM.

COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA 22Z NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH TO ABOUT 03Z
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.  MUCH LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE
AREA WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE 50S OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND FRESHING NNW WIND WILL PROMOTE TEMPS TO FALL INTO
THE 50S WELL INLAND AND LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WED...

A GEM OF A DAY AND PROBABLY THE PICK OF THE WEEK AS DEEP LAYER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. A REFRESHING NNW WIND UP TO 25 MPH DURING
THE MORNING WILL EASE IN THE AFTN. 850 TEMPS AROUND +11C COMBINED
WITH MIXING TO 800 MB ALONG WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL YIELD
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...SLIGHTLY COOLER
HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH NNW WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
* ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
* POSSIBLE CLEARING AND IMPROVING WEATHER BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK

DETAILS...

MODELS/PATTERN...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD...MINUS A FEW MESOSCALE
DIFFERENCES. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF...ESP INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER OVERALL
PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE A SHORTWAVE
MOVE THROUGH IT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
RIGHT BEHIND IN THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT RIDGING BY FRIDAY AM FOLLOW BY
STOUT TROUGH OVER THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
DRY FORECAST TO START...HOWEVER MODELS ARE HINTING AT A POSSIBLE MCS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BEST TIMING FOR
SNE WOULD BE AROUND 12Z. STILL PLENTY OF TIMING WITH THIS SCENARIO
AS THE GFS BRING THIS MCS FARTHER NORTHERN ACROSS S VT/S NH/AND NE MA.
THE ECMWF AND NAM BRING THE MCS ACROSS N CT/RI/AND MA. GOOD AMOUNT
OF SHEAR AND LLJ WILL STREAM LINE THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER NOT A LOT OF
INSTABILITY PER MODELS. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. DEPENDING ON HOW
THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR
STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS AS ML CAPE REACHES NEAR 2000 J/KG
AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR NEARS 50 KTS AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT CONDITIONS ARE STARTING TO LINE UP FOR AN ACTIVE
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...
LINGERING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW THAT MOVED THROUGH
OVERNIGHT WILL STALL OVER SNE ON FRIDAY. THIS MAY BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BY
FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH PUSHING THE
LOW OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER A TROUGH
CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. DEPENDING ON
HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST DAY FOR NO SHOWERS...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE IT OUT.

TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS HIGH
TEMPS WITH MID TO LOWER 60S AS MIN TEMPS. HOWEVER DEWPOINTS FRIDAY
INTO SUNDAY WILL BE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ESP ACROSS THE SOUTH
SHORE MAKING IT QUITE MUGGY/HUMID.

DID A BLEND OF HPC/ECMWF/AND NAM FOR THIS CURRENT FORECAST.

NEXT WEEK...
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVED OVER...HOWEVER IT
APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACTIVE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND/S AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON...EXITING BY 21Z AND 00Z FOR RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA...POSSIBLY LINGERING TIL 03Z CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. A FEW STORMS WILL CONTAIN STRONG WINDS/LARGE HAIL AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
NNW WINDS PROVIDING GOOD VSBYS. VFR AGAIN WED WITH A DIMINISHING
WIND.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH A 1-3 HR WINDOW OF SCT TSTMS AND BRIEF MVFR. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH IMPROVEMENT 21Z-00Z. VFR TONIGHT AND WED
WITH A GUSTY NNW.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR THROUGH WED WITH A MODERATE PROBABILITY OF A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
UNTIL 21Z...THEN IMPROVING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PREVAILING VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH PSBL MVFR-
IFR IMPACTS. TSRA MAY BE SEVERE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...

A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN WATERS UNTIL 10-11 PM
THEN MOVING OFFSHORE.  GUSTY NNW WINDS UP TO 25 KT WILL IMPACT THE
WATERS BEGINNING 11 PM AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

WED...
NNW WINDS UP TO 25 KT THEN DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GOOD
VSBY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANTICIPATING SW WINDS OVER THE WATERS AS LOW
PRES DRAPES ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. WINDS MAY WAVER...WHILE
REMAINING LIGHT. SEAS MAY REACH 5 FT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ALONG THIS COLD FRONT EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. ON AGAIN
OFF AGAIN SHOWERS/THUNDER MAY OCCUR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
452 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

MAZ018>022-242145-
BARNSTABLE MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN
PLYMOUTH MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
452 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...

AT 450 PM...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH AND PENNY SIZED HAIL EXTENDED FROM LAKEVILLE TO CARVER AND
WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL HEAD TO THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH 545 PM.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...CARVER...ROCHESTER...WAREHAM...
  MARION...MATTAPOISETT AND BOURNE.

HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE MINOR STREET FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN
LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT.

&&

LAT...LON 4167 7066 4169 7068 4171 7067 4172 7071
      4167 7071 4167 7072 4168 7074 4165 7075
      4164 7077 4165 7081 4183 7099 4197 7070
      4171 7055

JWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
456 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0154 PM     HAIL             GOFFSTOWN               43.02N  71.60W
07/24/2012  M0.75 INCH       HILLSBOROUGH       NH   TRAINED SPOTTER

0246 PM     HAIL             BARRE                   42.42N  72.11W
07/24/2012  M0.75 INCH       WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

0316 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW BRAINTREE           42.32N  72.13W
07/24/2012                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE ACROSS ROAD WEST BROOKFIELD ST.... TREE ON WIRES
            ON PROUTY RD.

0320 PM     HAIL             SALEM                   42.53N  70.87W
07/24/2012  M1.25 INCH       ESSEX              MA   AMATEUR RADIO

0321 PM     HAIL             SALEM                   42.53N  70.87W
07/24/2012  M0.75 INCH       ESSEX              MA   AMATEUR RADIO

0322 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WARE                    42.25N  72.25W
07/24/2012                   HAMPSHIRE          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 32

0326 PM     HAIL             LYNN                    42.47N  70.96W
07/24/2012  M0.88 INCH       ESSEX              MA   AMATEUR RADIO

0326 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WEST BROOKFIELD         42.24N  72.15W
07/24/2012                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE BLOCKING CHURCH ST.... TREE DOWN ON WOODS ST.

0443 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 6 W WELLFLEET           41.93N  70.15W
07/24/2012  E41 MPH          ANZ231             MA   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

WAS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
537 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

MAZ020-022>024-242230-
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
537 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HEADING FOR MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET...

AT 535 PM...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING ACROSS CAPE
COD FROM BOURNE TO ORLEANS. THE LINE WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL CROSS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET SOUNDS...AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS MARTHAS VINEYARD BETWEEN 545 PM AND 615 PM. THE
STORMS WILL CROSS NANTUCKET BETWEEN 615 PM AND 645 PM.

HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE MINOR STREET FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN
LOW LYING AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT.

&&

LAT...LON 4125 6996 4123 7001 4132 7029 4133 7004
      4166 7000 4159 7044 4132 7029 4155 7048
      4153 7063 4150 7070 4135 7044 4131 7076
      4147 7067 4142 7086 4152 7096 4146 7081
      4191 6996

JWD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
607 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

MAZ024-242300-
NANTUCKET MA-
607 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING NANTUCKET...

AT 605 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED OVER NANTUCKET
SOUND...ABOUT 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF NANTUCKET...AND WERE MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE STORMS WILL CROSS NANTUCKET BETWEEN 615 PM AND 645 PM...AND
WILL BRING WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

GET INDOORS WHEN THESE STORMS APPROACH. BE ALERT FOR FLOODING OF
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT.

&&

LAT...LON 4123 7001 4124 7012 4128 7026 4132 7028
      4134 7032 4134 7029 4132 7028 4129 7022
      4130 7019 4131 7008 4134 7004 4137 7003
      4139 7006 4140 7005 4137 7001 4126 6995

JWD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
624 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

MAZ013>016-018-019-242300-
EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK
MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
624 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BOSTON...

AT 620 PM...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MILTON AND WAS
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF PEA
SIZED HAIL WITH THIS STORM...MOST RECENTLY FROM BROOKLINE.

THIS STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE THROUGH 7 PM AND WILL
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...MILTON...QUINCY...RANDOLPH...
  BRAINTREE...WEYMOUTH...HOLBROOK...AVON...BROCKTON...ABINGTON...
  ROCKLAND...WHITMAN...PEMBROKE...HANSON...HANOVER AND EAST
  BRIDGEWATER.

FOR YOUR SAFETY...GET INSIDE WHEN THIS STORM APPROACHES. MINOR
STREET FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR
PLYMOUTH COUNTY.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 7097 4230 7122 4236 7107 4233 7102
      4232 7103 4231 7103 4232 7101 4230 7099
      4228 7100 4227 7099 4228 7096 4229 7097
      4210 7071

JWD