Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
325 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.DISCUSSION...

WE'VE GOT RAIN! OR...AT LEAST A FEW SPOTS NOW HAVE RAIN. CORFIDI
VECTORS SUGGEST THE PREFERRED DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT WOULD BE
SLOWLY TO THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW INTERACTION COULD VERY WELL
CAUSE SOME ERRATIC STORM MOVEMENT AND PROPAGATION. POPS TONIGHT
WILL BE A LAST MINUTE DECISION...BASED LARGELY ON RADAR TRENDS.
AND WHILE WE ARE TALKING ABOUT POPS...I WILL JUST GO AHEAD AND
MENTION THAT WE WILL KEEP THE NEAR/JUST BELOW CLIMO POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STILL NOTHING SYNOPTICALLY EVIDENT IN
THE MODELS TO PLACE ANY AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE IN A HIGHER CHANCE OF
RAIN.

WE NOW TURN OUR ATTENTION BACK TO THE TEMPERATURES...WHICH HAVE
DOMINATED OUR WEATHER STORY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. LOOKS LIKE YESTERDAY
AND TODAY WERE THE PEAK DAYS FOR THE HEAT. BUT HAVING SAID
THAT...TEMPS DON'T EXACTLY BACK OFF ALL THAT MUCH...AND THE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO SIMILAR HEAT INDEX VALUES
ON MONDAY. THUS...WE WILL GO BACK TO A HEAT ADVISORY THAT WILL
BEGIN WHEN THE CURRENT EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING EXPIRES AT 9
PM...AND TAKE IT THROUGH 9 PM MONDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE WE CAN SHAVE A
COUPLE MORE DEGREES OFF THOSE TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HAZE AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION HAZARDS THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. A WEAK SFC TROF BETWEEN KEET AND KMGM WILL LIKELY BE THE
FOCUS FOR ISOLD TSTMS FROM 20Z THRU 02Z. CONFIDENCE NOT ENOUGH FOR
INCLUSION OF TSTMS AT ANY TAF SITE.  HAZE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS FROM 10Z THRU 14Z.

58/ROSE

&&

.CLIMATE...
SELECTED HEAT RELATED CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

JULY 1

LOCATIONS           RECORD TEMPERATURES     YEAR(S)
----------------    -------------------     -----------
ANNISTON                    102             1954
BIRMINGHAM                  103             1954
MONTGOMERY                  100             1898, 2007
TUSCALOOSA                  103             1954

JULY 2

LOCATIONS           RECORD TEMPERATURES     YEAR(S)
----------------    -------------------     -----------
ANNISTON                    102             1954
BIRMINGHAM                  101             1954
MONTGOMERY                  101             1969
TUSCALOOSA                  102             1970

JULY 3

LOCATIONS           RECORD TEMPERATURES     YEAR(S)
----------------    -------------------     -----------
ANNISTON                    100             1970
BIRMINGHAM                  101             1970
MONTGOMERY                  100             1877
TUSCALOOSA                  103             1970

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     73 100  73  96  73 /  20  20  20  20  20
ANNISTON    75  99  74  95  73 /  20  20  20  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  79  99  75  96  75 /  20  20  20  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  76 101  75  97  75 /  20  20  20  20  20
CALERA      77  99  75  97  75 /  20  20  20  20  20
AUBURN      76  99  76  97  76 /  30  20  20  20  20
MONTGOMERY  77  99  77  97  76 /  10  20  20  20  20
TROY        75  96  75  95  74 /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALL COUNTIES.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY ALL COUNTIES.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
357 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-020300-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
357 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AN EXCESSIVE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 98 TO 106 DEGREES.
HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 107 TO 113 DEGREES. THESE VALUES
WILL APPROACH DANGEROUS LEVELS AND THUS AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. ADDITIONAL
HEAT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED FOR MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT
HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL JUST ENOUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS
THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
600 PM CDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             GEIGER                  32.87N 88.31W
07/01/2012  E1.00 INCH       SUMTER             AL   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN GEIGER. CORRECTED FOR
            TIME.

&&

TGOGGINS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
615 PM CDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             CEDAR BLUFF             34.22N 85.60W
07/01/2012  E1.00 INCH       CHEROKEE           AL   PUBLIC

&&

TGOGGINS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
634 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

ALZ019-020015-
CALHOUN AL-
634 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CALHOUN COUNTY UNTIL 715
PM CDT...

AT 630 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR JACKSONVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN CALHOUN COUNTY.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3388 8564 3385 8564 3373 8572 3380 8593
      3395 8585
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 213DEG 9KT 3386 8577

56