Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE YESTERDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE UP SLIGHTLY AS CENTER OF RIDGE HAS
PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AND ALLOWED SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW TO
SPREAD ACROSS ALABAMA. WITH THE AREA ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
HIGH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY. HOWEVER...SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE HIGHER...SO HEAT INDICES WILL STILL BE NEAR
110 DEGREES OR HIGHER...AND THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA WILL
LIKELY BE MET IN SEVERAL AREAS.

TOUGH CALL ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY. THE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE SOUTH
OF I-20 WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGHEST. ALSO...MODELS
SHOW A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE SETTING BETWEEN BIRMINGHAM AND
MONTGOMERY...WHICH COULD BE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. IF ACTIVITY
CAN GET GOING...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS...AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED TO INCLUDE ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HAZE AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION HAZARDS THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. A WEAK SFC TROF BETWEEN KEET AND KMGM WILL LIKELY BE THE
FOCUS FOR ISOLD TSTMS FROM 20Z THRU 02Z. CONFIDENCE NOT ENOUGH FOR
INCLUSION OF TSTMS AT ANY TAF SITE.  HAZE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS FROM 10Z THRU 14Z.

58/ROSE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012/

ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 100. HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 110 TO 112 IN A FEW AREAS AS DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT
UPWARDS OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. CURRENTLY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER GEORGIA WITH HOTTEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE EASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT PLAN IS TO LET THE
HEAT WARNING CONTINUE DUE TO THE POCKETS OF HIGHER INDICES SPREAD
OUT OVER THE CWA. ONE THING WHICH MIGHT IMPACT TEMPERATURES IS THE
CLOUD COVER. IF IT REMAINS HIGH OVERCAST THEN THESE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES COULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO HIGH.

SATELLITE AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING THE PLACEMENT OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH GEORGIA AND INTO
SOUTHERN ALABAMA. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD INITIATE OFF THIS
BOUNDARY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 100S...BUT ITS AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF ISOLATED
OR EVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION POTENTIAL LIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
REMAIN IMPRESSIVELY UNSTABLE SO IF ANY SIGNIFICANT UPDRAFTS CAN
DEVELOP THEN SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.

THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...THE RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND ALLOWS
FOR MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL RAIN CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 90S BY THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...

SELECTED HEAT RELATED CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

JULY 1

LOCATIONS           RECORD TEMPERATURES     YEAR(S)
----------------    -------------------     -----------
ANNISTON                    102             1954
BIRMINGHAM                  103             1954
MONTGOMERY                  100             1898, 2007
TUSCALOOSA                  103             1954

JULY 2

LOCATIONS           RECORD TEMPERATURES     YEAR(S)
----------------    -------------------     -----------
ANNISTON                    102             1954
BIRMINGHAM                  101             1954
MONTGOMERY                  101             1969
TUSCALOOSA                  102             1970

JULY 3

LOCATIONS           RECORD TEMPERATURES     YEAR(S)
----------------    -------------------     -----------
ANNISTON                    100             1970
BIRMINGHAM                  101             1970
MONTGOMERY                  100             1877
TUSCALOOSA                  103             1970

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN    104  73  99  72  97 /  10  20  20  20  20
ANNISTON   104  75  99  74  96 /  10  20  20  20  20
BIRMINGHAM 103  79  99  76  98 /  10  20  20  20  20
TUSCALOOSA 103  76 100  76  99 /  20  20  20  20  20
CALERA     103  77  99  75  97 /  20  20  20  20  20
AUBURN     100  76  98  77  96 /  20  20  20  20  20
MONTGOMERY 101  77 100  76  96 /  20  20  20  20  20
TROY        98  75  97  74  93 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BLOUNT...
BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...CHILTON...CLAY...
CLEBURNE...COOSA...DALLAS...ELMORE...ETOWAH...FAYETTE...GREENE...
HALE...JEFFERSON...LAMAR...LEE...LOWNDES...MACON...MARENGO...
MARION...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...RANDOLPH...
RUSSELL...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...SUMTER...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA...
TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1026 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-020300-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1026 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AN EXCESSIVE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 98 TO 106 DEGREES.
HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 107 TO 113 DEGREES. THESE VALUES
WILL APPROACH DANGEROUS LEVELS AND THUS AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA STARTING AROUND
3 PM.  ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS. THE MAIN THREAT TIME FOR THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 3 PM UNTIL 9 PM...AND MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-20.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. ADDITIONAL
HEAT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED FOR MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT
HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL JUST ENOUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS
THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
204 PM CDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             COATOPA                 32.49N 88.07W
06/30/2012  E0.88 INCH       SUMTER             AL   PUBLIC

&&

TGOGGINS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
255 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

ALZ029-012030-
RANDOLPH AL-
255 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL RANDOLPH COUNTY UNTIL 330
PM CDT...

AT 255 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR CRYSTAL LAKE...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROANOKE.
THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  WEDOWEE...
  CORINTH...
  MALONE...
  WOODLAND...
  TENNANT...

&&

LAT...LON 3313 8524 3313 8564 3340 8550 3343 8529
      3333 8526
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 141DEG 2KT 3320 8547

19

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
308 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

ALZ024-025-012100-
JEFFERSON AL-SHELBY AL-
308 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN SHELBY AND SOUTHERN
JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 306 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF MAYLENE...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HELENA...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  HELENA...
  BESSEMER...
  MAYLENE...
  REGIONS PARK OR HOOVER MET...
  ALABAMA ADVENTURE...

&&

LAT...LON 3336 8676 3312 8690 3315 8697 3316 8698
      3316 8700 3317 8702 3323 8702 3325 8704
      3340 8705
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 198DEG 7KT 3321 8697

56

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
312 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

ALZ031-012100-
GREENE AL-
312 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN GREENE COUNTY UNTIL 400
PM CDT...

AT 312 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR NEW WEST GREENE...OR 13 MILES WEST OF EUTAW...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BOLIGEE...
  WEST GREENE...
  ALLISON...
  CLINTON...
  PLEASANT RIDGE...

&&

LAT...LON 3293 8819 3296 8819 3296 8816 3300 8818
      3304 8814 3305 8807 3304 8805 3305 8803
      3277 8791 3269 8812 3271 8808 3278 8811
      3277 8808 3280 8806 3279 8810 3284 8814
      3283 8816 3286 8815 3294 8820
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 246DEG 4KT 3289 8811

19