Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
258 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...

A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST OVER NORTHERN
GEORGIA. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WAS FILTERING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA. THE FRONT
WAS NEARING OUR FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND IS EXPECTED TO
TRAVERSE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. AS IT DOES SO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND GENERALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE. ANY STORM
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUST UP TO 60 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD
PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO THE VERY SLOW MOVING NATURE
OF THE STORMS. THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT LFC'S HAVE
DROPPED WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE WITH SB CAPES FROM 2500-3000 J/KG. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
FINALLY DECREASING IN STRENGTH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE AND
EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ON FRIDAY...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES...AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE MESOSCALE
CONDITIONS JUST LIKE TODAY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT.

FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...AS AN EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE WEEKEND
AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE A BIT COOLER WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW WITH GENERALLY
UPPER 80S TO PERHAPS 90 DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WARMING UP
ONCE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE IN CONTROL...THE CHANCE OF ANY
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKING FAIRLY LIMITED.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A FEW STORMS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE AL/GA STATE
LINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION VCTS AT MOST SITES AS EXACT TIMING...IF ANY...OF STORMS
AFFECTING THE TERMINALS IS IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE DUE TO THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. ANB WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP FOR
THAT TERMINAL. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH HAIL ALSO A POSSIBILITY. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR SPEED/MOVEMENT OF STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THRU
THE DAY TO SEE IF VCTS WILL NEED TO BE ADDED FARTHER WEST. ACTIVITY
SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING AND DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT/CALM
WINDS. PATCHY FOG COULD BE A POSSIBILITY ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT
WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT TRANSPIRES TODAY TO DETERMINE WHICH
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING FOG DEVELOPMENT.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  88  65  86  61 /  30  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    68  87  65  85  62 /  30  10   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  70  88  68  87  64 /  20  20  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  71  90  68  89  65 /   0  30  10   0  10
CALERA      69  88  67  87  64 /  30  30  10   0   0
AUBURN      69  86  66  85  63 /  50  10  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  71  88  67  87  64 /  40  20  10   0  10
TROY        69  86  65  86  62 /  50  20  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

19/56

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1250 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-151800-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1250 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 1 PM UNTIL 8 PM FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65.  THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
441 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

ALZ045-047-142230-
LEE AL-MACON AL-
441 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MACON AND
SOUTHWESTERN LEE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 436 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR AUBURN...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  AUBURN...
  NOTASULGA...
  AUBURN UNIVERSITY...
  TUSKEGEE NATIONAL FOREST...
  CHEWACLA STATE PARK...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3235 8549 3255 8575 3266 8549 3257 8537
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 042DEG 6KT 3258 8546

27

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
457 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             3 SSE CUSSETA           32.75N 85.29W
06/14/2012  E1.00 INCH       CHAMBERS           AL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL FELL FOR SEVERAL MINUTES.

&&

GGOGGINS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
458 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE HOKES BLUFF       33.99N 85.84W
06/14/2012                   ETOWAH             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE TREE DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF POSEY RD AND NORA

            DRIVE. ALSO ONE TREE DOWN ALONG CROFT FERRY RD NORTHEAST
            OF HOKES BLUFF. WINDS ESTIMATED AROUND 40 MPH FROM RADAR.

0105 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE HOKES BLUFF        33.96N 85.82W
06/14/2012                   ETOWAH             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE TREE DOWN ACROSS FORDS VALLEY ROAD NEAR HOKES BLUFF.
            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0248 PM     HAIL             4 N FORT MCCLELLAN      33.78N 85.80W
06/14/2012  E0.25 INCH       CALHOUN            AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED ALONG PEACEBURG ROAD NEAR WEAVER.

0300 PM     HAIL             SAKS                    33.71N 85.85W
06/14/2012  E0.50 INCH       CALHOUN            AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

0308 PM     HAIL             SAKS                    33.71N 85.85W
06/14/2012  E1.00 INCH       CALHOUN            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

0319 PM     HAIL             OXFORD                  33.60N 85.83W
06/14/2012  E0.88 INCH       CALHOUN            AL   PUBLIC

            HAIL WAS STRIPPING LEAVES FROM TREES.

0333 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNW TALLADEGA SUPERSP 33.60N 86.09W
06/14/2012                   TALLADEGA          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE TREE REPORTED DOWN ON WATER TANK LANE.

0350 PM     HAIL             3 SSE CUSSETA           32.75N 85.29W
06/14/2012  E1.00 INCH       CHAMBERS           AL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL FELL FOR SEVERAL MINUTES.

&&

GGOGGINS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
515 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

ALZ037-142300-
TALLAPOOSA AL-
515 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN TALLAPOOSA COUNTY UNTIL
600 PM CDT...

AT 513 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF STILL WATERS RESORT...OR 10 MILES
NORTHWEST OF NOTASULGA...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.  EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM AS WELL.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  TALLAPOOSA CITY...
  REEVES AIRPORT...
  REELTOWN...
  YATES DAM...

&&

LAT...LON 3273 8561 3270 8570 3260 8570 3258 8571
      3258 8580 3249 8580 3249 8588 3265 8589
      3269 8591 3274 8588 3275 8589 3286 8585
      3281 8560
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 023DEG 10KT 3266 8578

27

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
528 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

ALZ043-142315-
ELMORE AL-
528 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN ELMORE COUNTY UNTIL 615
PM CDT...

AT 527 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR MARTIN DAM...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF TALLASSEE...MOVING
WEST AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.  HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS WELL.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  WETUMPKA...
  MARTIN LAKE AT KOWALIGA...
  KENT...
  ECLECTIC...
  SANTUCK...

&&

LAT...LON 3273 8589 3271 8589 3270 8591 3266 8590
      3265 8589 3255 8589 3248 8621 3274 8627
      3275 8588 3274 8588
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 079DEG 14KT 3265 8590

27