Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
258 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...

A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST OVER NORTHERN
GEORGIA. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WAS FILTERING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA. THE FRONT
WAS NEARING OUR FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND IS EXPECTED TO
TRAVERSE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. AS IT DOES SO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND GENERALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE. ANY STORM
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUST UP TO 60 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD
PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO THE VERY SLOW MOVING NATURE
OF THE STORMS. THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT LFC'S HAVE
DROPPED WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE WITH SB CAPES FROM 2500-3000 J/KG. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
FINALLY DECREASING IN STRENGTH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE AND
EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ON FRIDAY...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES...AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE MESOSCALE
CONDITIONS JUST LIKE TODAY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT.

FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...AS AN EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE WEEKEND
AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE A BIT COOLER WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW WITH GENERALLY
UPPER 80S TO PERHAPS 90 DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WARMING UP
ONCE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE IN CONTROL...THE CHANCE OF ANY
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKING FAIRLY LIMITED.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A FEW STORMS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE AL/GA STATE
LINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION VCTS AT MOST SITES AS EXACT TIMING...IF ANY...OF STORMS
AFFECTING THE TERMINALS IS IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE DUE TO THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. ANB WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP FOR
THAT TERMINAL. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH HAIL ALSO A POSSIBILITY. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR SPEED/MOVEMENT OF STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THRU
THE DAY TO SEE IF VCTS WILL NEED TO BE ADDED FARTHER WEST. ACTIVITY
SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING AND DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT/CALM
WINDS. PATCHY FOG COULD BE A POSSIBILITY ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT
WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT TRANSPIRES TODAY TO DETERMINE WHICH
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING FOG DEVELOPMENT.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  88  65  86  61 /  30  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    68  87  65  85  62 /  30  10   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  70  88  68  87  64 /  20  20  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  71  90  68  89  65 /   0  30  10   0  10
CALERA      69  88  67  87  64 /  30  30  10   0   0
AUBURN      69  86  66  85  63 /  50  10  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  71  88  67  87  64 /  40  20  10   0  10
TROY        69  86  65  86  62 /  50  20  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

19/56

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1250 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-151800-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1250 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 1 PM UNTIL 8 PM FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65.  THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
323 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     HAIL             OXFORD                  33.60N 85.83W
06/14/2012  E0.88 INCH       CALHOUN            AL   PUBLIC

            HAIL WAS STRIPPING LEAVES FROM TREES.

&&

KSUMRALL

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