Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
930 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY WATCHING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
NORTHERN ALABAMA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ACTUALLY ALONG THIS
OUTFLOW VERSUS THE STORMS. THERE MAY BE A FEW TREES GO DOWN WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS...BUT WILL BE GENERALLY IN AN ISOLATED NATURE WITH
JUST BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH ANY STORM IS THE
DOWNDRAFT CAPE AND DRY AIR ALOFT. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
BY MIDNIGHT. MAIN UPDATE FOR THE EVENING WAS TO THE POPS AND ALREADY
SENT OUT THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NEXT FEW HOURS WE WILL SEE THE SCATTERED ACTIVITY BEGIN TO DWINDLE
ACROSS THE AREA. INCLUDE SO VCTS FOR THE NORTH SITES...MINUS TCL AS
THE ACTIVITY HAS MOVED ACROSS THIS AREA. ACTIVITY WOULD BE BRIEF AND
SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY MAJOR ISSUES. AFTER SUNSET WE SHOULD SEE MOST
OF THIS CONVECTION DISSIPATE.

LOOKING FURTHER NORTH...A COLD FRONT SITS ACROSS KENTUCKY. A COMPLEX
OF STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND IS SLIDING
EAST SOUTHEAST. EXPECTING THE MCS TO BEGIN TO COLD POOL OUT...IT MAY
SLIDE INTO NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ALOT OF UNCERTAINTIES
WITH IT SO WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING AT THIS TIME AS IT WOULD NOT
IMPACT ANB UNTIL AFTER THE NEXT SET OF TAFS SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
RADAR TO SEE IF ANYTHING NEEDS TO BE ADDED BEFORE THE 06Z.

WHAT THIS MCS DOES REALLY COULD PLAY HAVOC WITH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AS WELL...BUT WENT WITH THE THINKING THAT ONCE BERYL MOVES
FURTHER EAST WE WILL BE IN A ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE AND RAIN WILL BE
LIMITED. BEST CHANCE TOMORROW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD BE MGM
AND TOI...BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW AS CHANCES ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT
AT THIS TIME.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
849 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-310200-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
849 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING A RISK OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1042 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

ALZ019-021-024-025-027>029-034-036-037-300430-
BIBB AL-CALHOUN AL-CLAY AL-CLEBURNE AL-COOSA AL-JEFFERSON AL-RANDOLPH
AL-SHELBY AL-TALLADEGA AL-TALLAPOOSA AL-
1042 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN TALLAPOOSA...
TALLADEGA...SHELBY...RANDOLPH...JEFFERSON...NORTHERN COOSA...
CLEBURNE...CLAY...NORTHEASTERN BIBB AND SOUTHERN CALHOUN COUNTIES
UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

AT 1042 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OAK GROVE TO SYCAMORE TO
ABERNATHY...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 35 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  BESSEMER...
  WILSONVILLE...
  PELHAM...
  SYLACAUGA...
  HELENA...

&&

LAT...LON 3320 8526 3287 8614 3293 8652 3302 8652
      3307 8662 3307 8688 3298 8688 3303 8719
      3320 8720 3328 8707 3337 8723 3352 8728
      3378 8700 3371 8652 3356 8655 3350 8638
      3339 8638 3354 8619 3368 8619 3390 8542
TIME...MOT...LOC 0342Z 352DEG 40KT 3345 8719 3323 8621
          3362 8540

GRANTHAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1131 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1128 PM     TSTM WND GST     ALABASTER               33.25N 86.82W
05/29/2012  E65 MPH          SHELBY             AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            WINDS ESTIMATED 60 TO 65 MPH AT HWY 58/HWY 95.

&&

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1133 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

ALZ027-034>036-300515-
BIBB AL-CHILTON AL-COOSA AL-TALLADEGA AL-
1133 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN TALLADEGA...WESTERN
COOSA...CHILTON AND BIBB COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM CDT...

AT 1133 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM EOLINE TO CHILDERSBURG...
AND MOVING SOUTH AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  SYLACAUGA...
  CENTREVILLE...
  TALLADEGA SPRINGS...
  BRENT...
  JEMISON...

&&

LAT...LON 3308 8730 3316 8697 3310 8697 3306 8691
      3307 8662 3302 8652 3309 8651 3312 8646
      3318 8651 3320 8646 3329 8643 3334 8620
      3275 8631 3275 8641 3271 8641 3271 8671
      3266 8672 3266 8701 3284 8702 3284 8732
TIME...MOT...LOC 0433Z 009DEG 38KT 3301 8721 3322 8632

GRANTHAM

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