Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
930 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY WATCHING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
NORTHERN ALABAMA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ACTUALLY ALONG THIS
OUTFLOW VERSUS THE STORMS. THERE MAY BE A FEW TREES GO DOWN WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS...BUT WILL BE GENERALLY IN AN ISOLATED NATURE WITH
JUST BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH ANY STORM IS THE
DOWNDRAFT CAPE AND DRY AIR ALOFT. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
BY MIDNIGHT. MAIN UPDATE FOR THE EVENING WAS TO THE POPS AND ALREADY
SENT OUT THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NEXT FEW HOURS WE WILL SEE THE SCATTERED ACTIVITY BEGIN TO DWINDLE
ACROSS THE AREA. INCLUDE SO VCTS FOR THE NORTH SITES...MINUS TCL AS
THE ACTIVITY HAS MOVED ACROSS THIS AREA. ACTIVITY WOULD BE BRIEF AND
SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY MAJOR ISSUES. AFTER SUNSET WE SHOULD SEE MOST
OF THIS CONVECTION DISSIPATE.

LOOKING FURTHER NORTH...A COLD FRONT SITS ACROSS KENTUCKY. A COMPLEX
OF STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND IS SLIDING
EAST SOUTHEAST. EXPECTING THE MCS TO BEGIN TO COLD POOL OUT...IT MAY
SLIDE INTO NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ALOT OF UNCERTAINTIES
WITH IT SO WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING AT THIS TIME AS IT WOULD NOT
IMPACT ANB UNTIL AFTER THE NEXT SET OF TAFS SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
RADAR TO SEE IF ANYTHING NEEDS TO BE ADDED BEFORE THE 06Z.

WHAT THIS MCS DOES REALLY COULD PLAY HAVOC WITH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AS WELL...BUT WENT WITH THE THINKING THAT ONCE BERYL MOVES
FURTHER EAST WE WILL BE IN A ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE AND RAIN WILL BE
LIMITED. BEST CHANCE TOMORROW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD BE MGM
AND TOI...BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW AS CHANCES ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT
AT THIS TIME.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
849 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-310200-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
849 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING A RISK OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
959 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

ALZ018>021-026-300345-
CALHOUN AL-CHEROKEE AL-CLEBURNE AL-ETOWAH AL-ST. CLAIR AL-
959 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ST. CLAIR...ETOWAH...CLEBURNE...
CHEROKEE AND CALHOUN COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

AT 950 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF FORNEY TO
MARGARET...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  FORNEY...
  PIEDMONT...
  PELL CITY...
  JACKSONVILLE...
  SAKS...

&&

LAT...LON 3367 8534 3350 8567 3347 8589 3354 8579
      3359 8580 3359 8599 3367 8605 3370 8619
      3358 8622 3354 8619 3349 8626 3352 8627
      3340 8638 3350 8638 3350 8644 3380 8658
      3382 8643 3395 8630 3433 8547
TIME...MOT...LOC 0259Z 332DEG 24KT 3410 8544 3361 8643

GRANTHAM

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1003 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

ALZ024-300345-
JEFFERSON AL-
1003 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST JEFFERSON COUNTY UNTIL
1045 PM CDT...

AT 1001 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR BURNWELL...OR NEAR DORA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  FAIRFIELD...
  FULTONDALE...
  WEST JEFFERSON...
  GRAYSVILLE...
  CARDIFF...

&&

LAT...LON 3360 8675 3346 8693 3362 8715 3363 8710
      3366 8709 3366 8706 3368 8706 3369 8704
      3373 8704 3377 8702 3378 8700
TIME...MOT...LOC 0303Z 312DEG 21KT 3371 8709

GRANTHAM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1012 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

ALZ015-300400-
WALKER AL-
1012 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WALKER COUNTY UNTIL 1100 PM
CDT...

AT 1004 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES EAST OF CARBON HILL
TO ROCKY HOLLOW...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  BURNWELL...
  QUINTON...
  PARRISH...
  GORGAS...
  GORGAS STEAM PLANT...

&&

LAT...LON 3389 8709 3379 8700 3377 8703 3369 8704
      3368 8706 3366 8706 3366 8709 3363 8710
      3362 8717 3359 8720 3355 8719 3355 8720
      3395 8756
TIME...MOT...LOC 0312Z 324DEG 33KT 3382 8737 3372 8705

GRANTHAM