Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1151 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A VERY SOGGY NIGHT FOR MANY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A MASS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES OVER MARENGO AND PERRY COUNTIES THIS
EVENING WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE. WILL
CONTINUE MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS MANY STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE AT OR NEAR
BANK FULL FROM EARLIER RAINS. WILL ADJUST POPS BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY IN THE 60S.
UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOOKS LIKE WE'RE IN FOR CONTINUED RAIN FOR AWHILE LONGER.  RADAR
TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE RAINFALL THAT IS
SLOWLY STREAMING FROM SW TO NE WILL PERSIST WITH VERY LITTLE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION.  BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE CHANGED THINGS UP A
BIT.  HAVE KEPT KBHM/KEET/ANB/KMGM IN PERSISTANT RAIN THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST 6-10 HOURS OF THIS CYCLE.  CIGS MAY FALL TO AT LEAST
MVFR NEAR DAYBREAK...POTENTIALLY IFR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN
RECOVER DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.  VIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
HEAVY THE RAIN FALLS AT ANY PARTICULAR SITE.  KTCL AND KTOI MAY
ESCAPE MOST OF THIS RAINFALL.

FURTHER REDEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
FRIDAY WITH TS POSSIBLE.  HAVE SHOWN THIS IN THE PREVAILING FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO SW FROM SE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.

27

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

88/27

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
903 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-240215-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
903 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS LED TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF AREAL FLOODING IN MARENGO COUNTY AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES TONIGHT.
PLEASE REFER TO OUR FLOOD PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS
HAZARD.

IN ADDITION TO AREAL FLOODING...MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
ON THE SUCARNOOCHEE AND TOMBIGBEE RIVERS IN SOUTHWEST CENTRAL
ALABAMA. AGAIN...PLEASE REFER TO OUR RIVER FLOOD PRODUCTS FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM JASPER TO TUSCALOOSA TO DEMOPOLIS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM FRIDAY. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED FRIDAY.

27

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
318 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

ALZ041-042-044-230845-
AUTAUGA AL-LOWNDES AL-MONTGOMERY AL-
318 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN AUTAUGA...
NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY AND NORTHERN LOWNDES COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM
CDT...

AT 317 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR LOWNDESBORO...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF HAYNEVILLE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  PRATTVILLE...
  CANTELOUS...
  AUTAUGA COUNTY AIRPORT...
  HUNTER...
  BOYLSTON...

&&

LAT...LON 3233 8678 3258 8642 3241 8641 3243 8640
      3243 8634 3241 8631 3244 8632 3247 8631
      3249 8631 3247 8629 3250 8626 3245 8620
      3246 8619 3243 8619 3218 8666
TIME...MOT...LOC 0818Z 234DEG 29KT 3231 8663

GRANTHAM