Areal Flood Warning 4, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
653 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

.UPDATE...
FOR AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NOT MANY CHANGES THIS MORNING TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE. UPPER
CLOSED LOW WILL CROSS MISSOURI TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SATURDAY NIGHT. WATCHING ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA IN WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.
DRY SLOT IS ROTATING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI...WITH WHAT SHOULD BE THE
FINAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST ARKANSAS.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS THE DRY SLOT NOSES INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND MID LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW
PROVIDES ADDITIONAL FORCING TO MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
COMBINATION OF MOIST LOW LEVELS /DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/...INCREASED
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES AS MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE...AND
SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A LOW END
SEVERE THREAT TODAY. THESE INGREDIENTS WILL COME TOGETHER ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WHETHER STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-20...OR WHETHER
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT SURFACE INSTABILITIES THAT FAR NORTH. WILL
HIGHLIGHT AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM GADSDEN TO CLANTON TO SELMA IN
THE HWO...AND LOOK FOR REFINEMENTS AS MESO DETAILS ARE IRONED OUT
LATER THIS MORNING.

THIS AREA OF ONGOING CONVECTION WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY...ENDING IN THE TCL-BHM METRO AREAS BY MIDDAY...AND THE I-85
CORRIDOR AFTER SUNSET. AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND TROUGH AXIS
CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...MODEL GUIDANCE WANTS TO MAINTAIN A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS IN. AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES TO OUR NORTH
TOMORROW...COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP
SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH. AS THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS INTO THE CAROLINAS...RAIN WILL END AND EXPECT DRY AND
CLEARING CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT.

RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT THE COOLER TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND TO MODERATE EACH DAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY
LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S EARLY IN THE WEEK....AND INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY TO
UPPER 50S AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN
BY THURSDAY.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MAKE VERY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AND PUSH THE DRY SLOT AND COLD FRONT
ACROSS ALABAMA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR ANB...MGM...AND TOI IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SLOW MOVING AXIS
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO THE
WEST AND WILL AFFECT TCL...BHM...AND EET THROUGH AROUND 18Z WITH
IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND VIS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

THE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MENTIONED WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE
AND COME TO AN END AROUND 00Z FOR MGM...TOI...AND ANB. CONDITIONS
SHOULD MPROVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     77  51  74  49  74 /  90  20  20  10   0
ANNISTON    78  55  75  51  75 /  90  30  30  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  80  54  76  55  77 /  80  20  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  80  52  77  52  79 /  70  20  10  10   0
CALERA      79  55  75  55  77 /  90  20  20  10   0
AUBURN      78  60  76  54  76 / 100  40  30  10   0
MONTGOMERY  80  60  79  54  80 /  90  30  30  10   0
TROY        78  60  78  52  80 /  90  40  30  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

14/87

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
646 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-241145-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
646 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM GADSDEN TO CLANTON TO SELMA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 10 AM UNTIL 8 PM. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL.

IN ADDITION...MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE SUCARNOOCHEE
AND TOMBIGBEE RIVERS IN SOUTHWEST CENTRAL ALABAMA. PLEASE REFER
TO OUR RIVER FLOOD PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE SUCARNOOCHEE AND TOMBIGBEE
RIVERS IN SOUTHWEST CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER
TO OUR RIVER FLOOD PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED TODAY.

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