Special Weather Statement, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
805 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING INCREASED
HUMIDITY TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS AND THUNDER COULD LINGER INTO
SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS...BUT OVERALL...
DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
8 PM UPDATE...
STORMS OVER NORTHEAST PA IN AREA OF BEST INSTABILITY WITH PULSE
SEVERE BEING THE CONCERN ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SOME TRAINING
OF CELLS. A LINE OF STORMS HAS FIRED UP AGAIN OVER WESTERN PA AND
NY SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO STUEBEN COUNTY. BELIEVE THAT AS
THIS MOVES INTO THE FINGER LAKE REGION THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
LINE WILL WEAKEN TO SCATTER SHOWERS WHERE AS THUNDER WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHEAST PA. HAVE ADJUSTED
THE POPS AND CLOUDS FOR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PULSE STORMS IGNITING AS EXPECTED ROUGHLY ALONG AND
EAST OF I-81...ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS...THOUGH PERHAPS OF A BIT
MORE COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY/WEAK WAVE IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ON
SCHEDULE. GOOD DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF IT SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION
TO CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH BEST FOCUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES/NORTHEAST PA. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY WITHIN THE SMALL AREA OF
OVERLAP FOR BOTH DECENT INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR...YET
MOVING INTO AREA OF LESS SHEAR. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED
ACCORDINGLY FOR EXPECTED TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY BOTH FROM
DIURNAL PULSE CONVECTION...AND THE WAVE COMING IN FROM THE WEST. I
ALSO ADDED GUSTY WINDS WORDING TO ACCOMPANY THUNDER IN THE WEATHER
GRIDS...ALONG WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL.

INTERESTING SET UP...WITH HIGHER INSTABILITY/LOW SHEAR IN THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN ZONES...AND HIGHER SHEAR/NOT AS MUCH INSTABILITY
IN THE WEST WHERE CLOUD COVER IMPACTED SURFACE HEATING.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS ENTIRE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS SOME
THREAT...BECAUSE OF AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING NOW OCCURRING AHEAD OF
SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND MUCH HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY /EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON/. WE HAVE ALREADY
HAD A FEW PULSE STORMS WITH ELEVATED CORES...THOUGH ALMOST ALL OF
THEM NOT QUITE TO SEVERE THRESHOLDS. DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AS INDICATED BY 1500-2000 J/KG MIXED LAYER 0-1KM CAPE. THE SHEAR
THOUGH IS MARGINAL AT BEST...AND MAINLY IN THE WESTERN ZONES.

ACTIVITY QUICKLY WANES IN WAKE OF WAVE LATER THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM SOUTHWEST TOWARDS DAWN FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
STORM PREDICTION CENTER AGAIN HAS ENTIRE AREA UNDER SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE FRIDAY. SHEAR PARAMETERS LOOK PRETTY GOOD...BUT WE WILL BE
IN WARM SECTOR ALOFT WHILE ALSO HAVING LIMITED HEATING DUE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER. IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN
HOW MUCH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WE CAN GET. AT THIS
TIME...EXPECTING SMALL EMBEDDED WAVE TO CONTINUE ITS TREK
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME DIURNAL
ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING ON ITS WAY OUT IN THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES
LATE MORNING. BEYOND THEN...THERE MAY BE A RELATIVE LULL...BEFORE
OCCLUDED FRONT BECOMES INVOLVED APPROACHING FROM SOUTHWEST LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING TO PRODUCE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN/EMBEDDED
THUNDER. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR POSSIBLE WATER CONCERNS.

CUTOFF LOW STACKS WITH SURFACE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT OVER LAKE
HURON...WHICH THEN SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC. THIS
ALLOWS DRY SLOT TO OVERTAKE THE REGION FOR MAJORITY OF THE
WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SHOWERS/THUNDER LINGERING IN THE EASTERN ZONES
SATURDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING OCCLUDED FRONT...ONLY
LOOKING AT SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE FOR SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS IN FINGER LAKES
THROUGH MOHAWK VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND...AFTER A WARM SATURDAY MORNING...WILL BE NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS IN WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WHICH BASICALLY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALLY SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE BROAD TROF. FOR TUESDAY,
INCLUDED CHC POPS FOR TSRA ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE
CHC FOR CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A
SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM EASTERN CANADA. FOR NOW
KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS ON THURSDAY, AS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH
GFS SHOWING DRY WEATHER WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND TROF
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW DROPPING INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DIURNAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER LAKES WITH PRODUCE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FOR THIS ACTIVITY
INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA/SHRA. LOSS OF INSTABILITY LATER THIS
EVENING SHOULD RESULT IN A BREAK FROM ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING AREA WILL
BE IN THE VCNTY OF A WARM FRONT WITH MVFR SHOWERS LIKELY. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY TO MID MORNING WITH MORE CONVECTION
LIKELY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS OCCLUSION APPROACHES TERMINALS.

S/SE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THEN
S/SW ON SATURDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT AFTERNOON...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA.
SUN THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TRAINING OF STORMS HAVE CAUSED SOME MINOR ISSUES THIS EVENING AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE
FRIDAY...POOLING ABOVE 1.75 INCHES ALONG NEGATIVELY-TILTING
OCCLUDED FRONT THAT ENCROACHES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING. DEPENDING ON WHAT KIND OF PRIMING WE GET FROM OUR FIRST
BATCH OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WATER PROBLEMS ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THEN...PARTICULARLY CATSKILLS/POCONOS.
THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND ASSESSED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BMW
NEAR TERM...BMW
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
934 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-101345-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
934 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITHIN THE STRONGEST CELLS THAT DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ALSO...SLOW MOVING STORMS LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING AND
PONDING OF WATER IN URBANIZED AREAS AND OTHER TYPICAL LOW LYING
AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

MDP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
921 PM EDT THU AUG 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PRATTSBURG              42.52N  77.28W
08/09/2012                   STEUBEN            NY   911 CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON WIRES

&&

JML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
928 PM EDT THU AUG 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0343 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WESTMORELAND            43.12N  75.42W
08/09/2012                   ONEIDA             NY   911 CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE ON EAST MAIN STREET.

0455 PM     HAIL             NORWICH                 42.53N  75.52W
08/09/2012  E0.88 INCH       CHENANGO           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO ADDITIONAL PEA SIZED HAIL REPORTS FROM THE NORWICH
            AREA.

0508 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EDMESTON                42.70N  75.23W
08/09/2012                   OTSEGO             NY   911 CENTER

            TREES DOWN.

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHERRY VALLEY           42.80N  74.75W
08/09/2012                   OTSEGO             NY   911 CENTER

            TREES DOWN.

0600 PM     HAIL             COOPERSTOWN             42.70N  74.93W
08/09/2012  E1.00 INCH       OTSEGO             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0625 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MILFORD                 42.59N  74.95W
08/09/2012                   OTSEGO             NY   911 CENTER

            TREES DOWN.

0700 PM     HAIL             NANTICOKE               41.20N  76.00W
08/09/2012  M0.88 INCH       LUZERNE            PA   PUBLIC

0725 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KINGSTON                41.26N  75.89W
08/09/2012                   LUZERNE            PA   911 CENTER

            TREES DOWN BLOCKING ROAD

0745 PM     HAIL             NICHOLSON               41.63N  75.79W
08/09/2012  M0.75 INCH       WYOMING            PA   PUBLIC

0920 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PRATTSBURG              42.52N  77.28W
08/09/2012                   STEUBEN            NY   911 CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON WIRES

&&

DJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1007 PM EDT THU AUG 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0937 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DUNDEE                  42.52N  76.98W
08/09/2012                   YATES              NY   911 CENTER

            TREE BLOWN DOWN ON HOUSE.

&&

DJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1011 PM EDT THU AUG 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0933 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BLUFF POINT             42.62N  77.12W
08/09/2012                   YATES              NY   911 CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES BLOWN DOWN BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

&&

DJN

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1027 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

PAZ048-100330-
PIKE PA-
1027 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN PIKE COUNTY...

AT 1024 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF BUSHKILL...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST PIKE COUNTY AND REACH
MILFORD AT 1125 PM EDT.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY!

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND COULD
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LAT...LON 4114 7508 4115 7516 4125 7513 4124 7524
      4125 7526 4144 7484 4144 7481 4142 7479
      4143 7473 4140 7473 4136 7468 4132 7479
      4124 7486 4118 7488 4109 7499 4108 7503

DJN