Alert archive / New York / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2012

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Binghamton, NY

July 23, 2012Oneida County, New York

NWS Binghamton, NY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 23, 2012, 7:00 PM EDT for Oneida County, New York. It was in force for 30 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 23, 2012, 7:00 PM EDT (23:00 UTC)
Expired: Jul 23, 2012, 7:30 PM EDT
In force: 30 min
Issued by: NWS Binghamton, NY
Area: Storm-based polygon

County Oneida County, NY

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 23, 1:24 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	10 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 11.0 hours before the alert went out and 121 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 412 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -117 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 762 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 93 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 115 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

553 
WUUS51 KBGM 232300
SVRBGM
NYC065-232330-
/O.NEW.KBGM.SV.W.0074.120723T2300Z-120723T2330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
700 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 730 PM EDT.

* AT 656 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  CLINTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL SOUTHEASTERN ONEIDA COUNTY...

WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT
1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

&&

LAT...LON 4310 7517 4305 7521 4297 7521 4290 7519
      4289 7521 4292 7543 4312 7542
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 275DEG 29KT 4300 7530

$$

SLI

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Binghamton, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 23, 3:44 PM EDT, 3 hours 16 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 23, 3:44 PM EDT, 3 hours 16 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
344 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE AREA FROM ONTARIO. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK SOUTH
THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SPC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MLCAPES
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG.
DEEP LAYER (0-6 KM) SHEAR VALUES HAVE BEEN ONLY MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER...ABOUT 25 TO 30 KTS...
THROUGH MID- AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THIS ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME SEVERE STORMS.

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WIND SPEED MAX WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING INCREASING THE WIND SHEAR
SIGNIFICANTLY. 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 40 KTS BY 03Z. STORMS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THIS
SPEED MAX APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON... THEN EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AS THE
DRY AIR ALOFT SWEEPS OVER THE AREA INHIBITING THE CONVECTION. THIS
BRIEF LULL MAY BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CAPES
REMAIN ABOVE 1000 J/KG UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WITH STRONG
SHEAR IN PLACE ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
COULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD FINALLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY BRINGING DRY COOLER WEATHER WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A BEAUTIFUL WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY TAKE A TURN
FOR THE WORSE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FIRST OF
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES BARE DOWN ON THE REGION. AS HIGHLIGHTED IN
RECENT DAYS...A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES DIVING SOUTHEAST
FROM A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES COMBINED WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN
A STAGNANT UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN. UNDER THIS SCENARIO...VERY SLOW
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS OUR REGION IN
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

FCST MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THE FIRST ROUND OF SHWRS WILL BE UPON
US BY 12Z THU AS STRONG L0W-LEVEL JET WINDS OF ROUGHLY 40 KTS
ASCEND A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT. ADDITIONAL FORCING WILL BE
PROVIDED BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS REGION WILL
RESIDE UNDER THE FAVORABLE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC. CURRENTLY MODELS
TAKE THE SFC LOW EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP AXIS SUGGESTED JUST NORTH
OF OUR FCST AREA ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THAT
SAID...IF CONDITIONS WORK OUT AS ADVERTISED...MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY.

BEYOND THIS...THE GFS QUICKLY EXITS THE SFC LOW STAGE RIGHT WHICH
WOULD SET UP A TEMPORARY LULL ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND SUGGEST THE SFC
LOW WILL STALL OVER THE REGION WHICH WOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. QUICK LOOK AT THE
CANADIAN-CMC MODEL FAVORS THE SLOWER SOLUTION AS OFFERED BY THE
ECMWF AND THUS WILL KEEP CHC POPS THROUGH FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...NEXT MAJOR TROUGH TO ENTER THE REGION BY SATURDAY WHICH
WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHWRS AND STORMS BEFORE CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT BY SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE
REGION. EXPECT NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT A FEW OF THE TAF SITES. A
BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...
THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS SECOND
ROUND IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND THEREFORE HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED
IN THE TAF'S.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SW AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
STRONGER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MAINLY VFR.

TUE NGT...POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

WED...VFR.

THU...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY ELM/BGM/AVP.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE/SLI
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...CMG

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 23, 3:18 PM EDT, 3 hours 42 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
318 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-241930-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
318 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 504 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

HIT AND MISS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. STRONG WINDS AND HAIL ARE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

MSE

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 23, 6:30 PM EDT, 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
630 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     HAIL             LEONARDSVILLE           42.81N  75.25W
07/23/2012  E0.75 INCH       MADISON            NY   PUBLIC

&&

MJN

Local storm report, Jul 23, 6:35 PM EDT, 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
635 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             HARPURSVILLE            42.18N  75.62W
07/23/2012  E1.25 INCH       BROOME             NY   PUBLIC

&&

MJN

Local storm report, Jul 23, 6:37 PM EDT, 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
637 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0614 PM     HAIL             CARBONDALE              41.57N  75.51W
07/23/2012  E1.00 INCH       LACKAWANNA         PA   PUBLIC

&&

MJN

Local storm report, Jul 23, 6:43 PM EDT, 17 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
643 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             4 NE HAWLEY             41.52N  75.12W
07/23/2012  E1.00 INCH       PIKE               PA   PUBLIC

&&

MJN

Special weather statement, Jul 23, 6:44 PM EDT, 16 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
644 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

PAZ048-232315-
PIKE PA-
644 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN PIKE COUNTY...

* AT 642 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PECKS POND...AND
  MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FOREST PARK AND TAMIMENT AT 700 PM EDT...
  BUSHKILL AT 705 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4110 7505 4114 7508 4114 7514 4115 7516
      4125 7513 4125 7522 4136 7517 4120 7486
      4114 7491 4108 7502 4108 7503

DJP

Local storm report, Jul 23, 6:45 PM EDT, 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
645 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             JERMYN                  41.53N  75.55W
07/23/2012  E0.88 INCH       LACKAWANNA         PA   PUBLIC

&&

MJN

The office that day

Everything else NWS Binghamton, NY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 23, 1:27 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Delaware	63 min
Jul 23, 4:36 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Otsego	24 min
Jul 23, 4:50 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Seneca	25 min
Jul 23, 8:15 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Delaware	45 min
Jul 23, 1:22 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Chenango	53 min
Jul 23, 1:23 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Madison	67 min
Jul 23, 1:25 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Broome, Chenango, Cortland, Delaware, Otsego	65 min
Jul 23, 1:27 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Broome, Tioga	63 min
Jul 23, 1:43 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Broome, Chenango, Delaware, Otsego, Tioga, Tompkins	62 min
Jul 23, 1:46 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Madison, Oneida, Otsego	37 min
Jul 23, 2:26 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Chenango, Delaware, Otsego	79 min
Jul 23, 2:32 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Broome, Chenango, Cortland, Delaware, Otsego	45 min
Jul 23, 2:47 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Broome	28 min
Jul 23, 2:49 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Broome	56 min
Jul 23, 2:51 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Delaware	54 min
Jul 23, 2:58 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Broome, Chenango, Delaware, Sullivan	37 min
Jul 23, 3:01 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Onondaga	29 min
Jul 23, 3:13 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Otsego	62 min
Jul 23, 3:28 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Broome	32 min
Jul 23, 3:28 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Delaware, Sullivan	62 min
Jul 23, 3:40 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Broome, Delaware	50 min
Jul 23, 4:01 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Otsego	59 min
Jul 23, 4:10 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Oneida	65 min
Jul 23, 4:50 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Chenango	40 min
Jul 23, 5:39 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Broome	51 min
Jul 23, 5:42 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Broome, Chenango, Delaware	48 min
Jul 23, 5:58 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Madison, Otsego	47 min
Jul 23, 6:03 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Oneida	57 min
Jul 23, 6:03 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Sullivan	57 min
Jul 23, 6:28 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Broome, Chenango, Delaware	35 min
Jul 23, 6:56 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Oneida	64 min
Jul 23, 7:31 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Otsego	29 min
Jul 23, 7:49 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Oneida	26 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in New York, 2012 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.