Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
231 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN BEHIND IT FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 2 PM... ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. ENVIRONMENT
IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SPC ANALYZED CAPES BETWEEN 1500 AND
2000 J/KG. SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS BUT IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR LOOP
SHOWS A VERY PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL DRY SURGE TRACKING EAST TOWARD
WESTERN NY. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN OUR AREA ON THE EAST EDGE OF
THIS DRY SURGE BUT NOTHING IS OCCURRING UNDERNEATH THE DRY SURGE
IN MICHIGAN. THIS DRY SURGE WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY. STORMS COULD RE-DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS THE
PRIMARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WHILE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN MODERATELY HIGH.

1045 AM UPDATE... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND HAVE TWEAKED GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST COVERAGE AND LOCATION. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO WESTERN NY. WITH PLENTY OF HEATING
EXPECTED THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON CAPES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE 1000
J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MODERATELY STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT.
THIS COULD RESULT IN A ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
OR THIS EVENING... AND SPC CONCURS WITH A SLIGHT RISK CURRENTLY
PAINTED FOR OUR AREA. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
CONVECTION LATER TODAY... HOWEVER TIMING OF THE WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WOULD SEEM TO POINT TOWARD A LATE
AFTERNOON POTENTIAL STARTING OVER THE FINGER LAKES. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW.

430 AM UPDATE... WAVES OF SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO CROSS CNY/NRN TIER
PA ATTM...ASSOCD WITH AN APPROACHING UPR-LVL TROUGH OVER SRN
ONT/FAR WRN NY. IT APPEARS THAT THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH E OF THE RGN
IN THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME...WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TEMPORARILY
BCMG MORE ISOLD FOR THE LATE AM/EARLY AFTN PD.

BY 18-21Z...THE NEXT UPR-LVL WAVE...WELL DEFINED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY JUST N OF MN/LK SUPERIOR ATTM...IS PROGGED TO APPROACH
UPSTATE NY FROM SRN ONT. THE COMBO OF IMPROVING MID-LVL LR'S WITH
THIS FEATURE...ALG WITH DAYTIME HTG/LOW-LVL WAA...SHOULD HELP
BOOST ML CAPE VALUES INTO THE 1000-2000 RANGE...SPCLY FOR THE NRN
HALF OF THE CWA. ADDITIONALLY...SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR STG/SVR STORMS...WITH AN 850-900 MB JET MAX OF 40-45
KT CROSSING NY STATE BY EARLY EVE. SPC HAS MUCH OF THE FA
OUTLOOKED FOR PSBL SVR...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN ABV
MENTIONED PARAMETERS. WE CONTINUE TO MENTION THE PSBLTY OF SVR WX
IN THE HWO LATER TDY. WE HAVE NOT INCLUDED ENHANCED WORDING IN THE
GRIDS JUST YET...AS WE'LL WAIT TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE LATER TDY.

OUR CURRENT MAX TEMP GRID MATCHES MACHINE GUIDANCE QUITE WELL FOR
TDY...SO LTL TO NO CHGS WERE MADE HERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
445 AM UPDATE... AFTER A PSBL ROUND OF STG/SVR STORMS THIS EVE
(SPECIFICS MENTIONED ABV)...THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO QUIET DOWN LATE
TNT...AS DRY ADVECTION BEGINS AND THINGS STABILIZE DIURNALLY. POPS
WILL BE LOWERED ACCORDINGLY WITH TIME LATE TNT.

THE ACTUAL SFC COLD FRNTL BNDRY DOESN'T APPEAR THAT IT WILL CROSS
THE AREA COMPLETELY TIL TUE AFTN. FOR THIS REASON...WE HOLD ONTO
THE PSBLTY FOR ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THROUGH ABT MIDDAY.

VERY PLEASANT WX IS EXPECTED TUE NGT AND WED...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS THE NERN STATES...BRINGING REFRESHINGLY LOWER
HUMIDITY...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER A BEAUTIFUL WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY TAKE A TURN
FOR THE WORSE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FIRST OF
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES BARE DOWN ON THE REGION. AS HIGHLIGHTED IN
RECENT DAYS...A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES DIVING SOUTHEAST
FROM A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES COMBINED WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN
A STAGNANT UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN. UNDER THIS SCENARIO...VERY SLOW
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS OUR REGION IN
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

FCST MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THE FIRST ROUND OF SHWRS WILL BE UPON
US BY 12Z THU AS STRONG L0W-LEVEL JET WINDS OF ROUGHLY 40 KTS
ASCEND A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT. ADDITIONAL FORCING WILL BE
PROVIDED BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS REGION WILL
RESIDE UNDER THE FAVORABLE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC. CURRENTLY MODELS
TAKE THE SFC LOW EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP AXIS SUGGESTED JUST NORTH
OF OUR FCST AREA ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THAT
SAID...IF CONDITIONS WORK OUT AS ADVERTISED...MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY.

BEYOND THIS...THE GFS QUICKLY EXITS THE SFC LOW STAGE RIGHT WHICH
WOULD SET UP A TEMPORARY LULL ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND SUGGEST THE SFC
LOW WILL STALL OVER THE REGION WHICH WOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. QUICK LOOK AT THE
CANADIAN-CMC MODEL FAVORS THE SLOWER SOLUTION AS OFFERED BY THE
ECMWF AND THUS WILL KEEP CHC POPS THROUGH FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...NEXT MAJOR TROUGH TO ENTER THE REGION BY SATURDAY WHICH
WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHWRS AND STORMS BEFORE CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT BY SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE
REGION. EXPECT NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT A FEW OF THE TAF SITES. A
BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...
THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS SECOND
ROUND IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND THEREFORE HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED
IN THE TAF'S.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SW AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
STRONGER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MAINLY VFR.

TUE NGT...POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

WED...VFR.

THU...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY ELM/BGM/AVP.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...CMG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
439 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-240845-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
439 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HIT AND MISS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM TOWANDA TO BINGHAMTON TO COOPERSTOWN. STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
211 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0153 PM     HAIL             OXFORD                  42.44N  75.60W
07/23/2012  E1.00 INCH       CHENANGO           NY   PUBLIC

&&

MJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
215 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0201 PM     HAIL             2 S NORWICH             42.51N  75.52W
07/23/2012  M0.75 INCH       CHENANGO           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
217 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1232 PM     HAIL             4 SW MILFORD            41.28N  74.86W
07/23/2012  E0.88 INCH       PIKE               PA   PUBLIC

0123 PM     HAIL             DINGMANS FERRY          41.22N  74.88W
07/23/2012  E1.00 INCH       PIKE               PA   PUBLIC

0153 PM     HAIL             OXFORD                  42.44N  75.60W
07/23/2012  E1.00 INCH       CHENANGO           NY   PUBLIC

0201 PM     HAIL             2 S NORWICH             42.51N  75.52W
07/23/2012  M0.75 INCH       CHENANGO           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MJN

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