Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS Amarillo, TX

821 
WWUS54 KAMA 052150
SVSAMA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
450 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

TXC065-375-052215-
/O.CON.KAMA.SV.W.0204.000000T0000Z-120905T2215Z/
POTTER TX-CARSON TX-
450 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL
CARSON AND EASTERN POTTER COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 444 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...
AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 14
MILES NORTHEAST OF AMARILLO...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...       
  FRITCH HIGHWAY NEAR SAINT FRANCIS... 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF 
THIS STORM. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY 
INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3527 10192 3555 10201 3550 10148 3518 10168
      3518 10177
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 191DEG 21KT 3540 10166

$$
BJS

362 
WWUS54 KAMA 052216
SVSAMA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
516 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

TXC065-375-052226-
/O.EXP.KAMA.SV.W.0204.000000T0000Z-120905T2215Z/
POTTER TX-CARSON TX-
516 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL CARSON AND
EASTERN POTTER COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH
THIS THUNDERSTORM.

IN ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3527 10192 3555 10201 3550 10148 3518 10168
      3518 10177
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 191DEG 21KT 3541 10166

$$
BJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
350 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCLUDING
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO INVADE THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.

SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PULLED UP NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY BISECTING THE TX PANHANDLE FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. A COUPLE OTHER BOUNDARIES/CONVERGENCE ZONES
AREA ALSO IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE
IMAGERY...INCLUDING ONE ORIENTED MORE WEST/EAST NEAR THE SOUTHERN CWA
BORDER AND MORE OF A MOISTURE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH FROM NEAR
DALHART. QUITE A MOISTURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S AT CLAYTON NM AND SPRINGFIELD CO
TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE. LAPS/RUC ANALYSIS
MLCAPE FIELDS MIRROR THIS TREND...WITH VIRTUALLY NO INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE...AND 1500-2500 J/KG SOUTHEAST OF THE
FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KTS...SO THIS
COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND CAPE WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A DALHART
TO GUYMON LINE. SUBTLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO RIPPLE
ACROSS THE AREA ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF FASTER WEST/NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW SANDWICHED BETWEEN SOUTHERN UPPER RIDGE AND LARGE UPPER TROUGH
OVER CANADA/THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE AND THE RRQ
OF AN UPPER JET STREAK HAVE BEEN SUSTAINING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
EASTERN OK PANHANDLE...WITH A TRAILING LITTLE STRONGER WAVE
APPROACHING OUT OF CO/NORTHERN NM. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF LOW-
LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL FORCING...ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

A 30 KT SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
FALLING PRESSURE/HEIGHTS AT LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A
STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. RESULTANT WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL HELP TO
SUSTAIN CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL LIKELY PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE...WHICH WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT.

THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES ON
THURSDAY...GIVING WAY TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
DEEPEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED STRONGEST INSTABILITY
/MLCAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE/ IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE...DIMINISHING
TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDING
THROUGH THIS FLOW AND SOME UPPER JET ENERGY COULD COMBINE WITH
DESTABILIZATION FROM DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP TRIGGER ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE
NORTHWEST CWA MAY ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR PROGGED TO BE AROUND 30 KTS IN THE NORTHEAST /DECREASING TO 20
KTS IN THE SOUTH/ COMBINED WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT ONCE AGAIN. A 40 KT LLJ DEVELOPING THURSDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT IMPINGING ON THE AREA MAY HELP TO
SUSTAIN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

THE MUCH ADVERTISED STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY...LIKELY PASSING THROUGH ALL BUT
THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE BY MIDDAY. SOME CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE TIME OF DAY OF ITS PASSAGE AND DRY
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL LIMIT THE CHANCES. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO BE LIMITED PRIMARILY TO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES AND
FAR SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. SOME DECENT MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FORCING
WILL GRAZE THE AREA AS THE POTENT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THESE DYNAMICS WILL LARGELY LAG THE SURFACE FRONT
AND THUS WILL BE BATTLING DRY AIR AND MAY LARGELY GO TO WASTE. JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTH TO SUPPORT A SMALL CHANCE OF
RAIN AS THE DYNAMICS SWING ACROSS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
REMAINS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH QPF THAN THE NAM AND ECMWF...BUT
APPEARS WAY OVERDONE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG
STORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BASED ON ITS
SOLUTION...BUT AGAIN BELIEVE IT IS TOO MOIST AND THUS ITS INSTABILITY
IS WAY OVERDONE. ANY THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN STILL EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL
THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE SUNDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK AS A DAMPENED UPPER
RIDGE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK...GIVING WAY TO A
MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BY MID WEEK. NEXT COLD FRONT MAY DROP IN
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...BUT LOOKS MUCH WEAKER THAN THE FRIDAY
ONE.

KB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO MID
NEXT WEEK. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS FRIDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN AROUND 30 PERCENT OR HIGHER.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                66  95  66  82  54 /  40  20  20  20  20
BEAVER OK                  67  98  68  81  54 /  20  40  40  30  10
BOISE CITY OK              59  94  64  76  50 /  20  30  20  10  10
BORGER TX                  68  99  70  83  58 /  30  30  20  20  10
BOYS RANCH TX              66  98  67  82  57 /  30  20  20  20  10
CANYON TX                  65  95  65  83  55 /  40  20  20  20  20
CLARENDON TX               70  98  69  88  59 /  50  20  20  20  20
DALHART TX                 62  96  60  80  51 /  20  30  20  10  10
GUYMON OK                  63  95  66  79  53 /  20  30  30  20  10
HEREFORD TX                64  94  65  82  55 /  30  20  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                69  98  68  82  56 /  40  30  30  30  10
PAMPA TX                   66  96  68  82  55 /  40  20  20  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                70  99  68  89  59 /  50  20  20  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              71 100  69  93  61 /  50  20  20  20  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

09/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
335 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-061100-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
335 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND MAY LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM DALHART TO GUYMON. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A DALHART TO GUYMON LINE THROUGH 11 PM CDT. STRONG WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THE HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT DURING THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A DALHART TO GUYMON LINE.

KB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
418 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

TXZ017-018-052145-
ARMSTRONG TX-RANDALL TX-
418 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ARMSTRONG AND
SOUTHEASTERN RANDALL COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 414 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF HAPPY...OR 15 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CANYON...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PALO DURO CANYON...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

BJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
423 PM CDT WED SEP 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     HAIL             3 ESE AMARILLO          35.19N 101.77W
09/05/2012  E1.00 INCH       POTTER             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1200653

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
427 PM CDT WED SEP 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0404 PM     HAIL             4 S AMARILLO            35.14N 101.82W
09/05/2012  E1.00 INCH       RANDALL            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1200654

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
430 PM CDT WED SEP 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 ESE AMARILLO          35.20N 101.80W
09/05/2012  M59 MPH          POTTER             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1200656

ABM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
434 PM CDT WED SEP 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 SW AMARILLO           35.14N 101.89W
09/05/2012                   RANDALL            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER OVER BOTH SIDES OF 34TH STREET BETWEEN SONCY AND
            COULTER...ONLY THE CENTER TURN LANE IS NOT FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1200657

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
434 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

TXZ018-019-052200-
ARMSTRONG TX-DONLEY TX-
434 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME EASTERN ARMSTRONG AND
SOUTHERN DONLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 431 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLARENDON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CLARENDON...          LELIA LAKE...         HOWARDWICK...
  HEDLEY...             GREENBELT LAKE...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.