Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Amarillo, TX

357 
WWUS54 KAMA 052053
SVSAMA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
353 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

TXC065-375-381-052130-
/O.CON.KAMA.SV.W.0201.000000T0000Z-120905T2130Z/
POTTER TX-RANDALL TX-CARSON TX-
353 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
CARSON...NORTHEASTERN RANDALL AND SOUTHEASTERN POTTER COUNTIES UNTIL
430 PM CDT...

AT 348 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...
AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4
MILES SOUTHEAST OF AMARILLO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
  AMARILLO...           LAKE TANGLEWOOD...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS ALREADY PRODUCED POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN 
EXCESS OF 65 MPH AT TRADEWIND ELEMENTARY SCHOOL. SEEK SHELTER NOW 
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3503 10173 3511 10193 3534 10186 3530 10146
      3518 10158 3518 10163 3513 10163
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 206DEG 5KT 3516 10177

$$
BJS

861 
WWUS54 KAMA 052130
SVSAMA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
430 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

TXC065-375-381-052139-
/O.EXP.KAMA.SV.W.0201.000000T0000Z-120905T2130Z/
POTTER TX-RANDALL TX-CARSON TX-
430 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN CARSON...
NORTHEASTERN RANDALL AND SOUTHEASTERN POTTER COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT
430 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL 
POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE 
WESTERN HALF OF THE AMARILLO METRO AREA UNTIL 5 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3503 10173 3511 10193 3534 10186 3530 10146
      3518 10158 3518 10163 3513 10163
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 206DEG 5KT 3521 10174

$$
BJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
111 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING FROM THE ZONES AND TRIMMED BACK
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST AS THEIR BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION HAS
MOVED FURTHER TO THE EAST. ALSO BUMPED UP TEMPS IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES
SINCE THE FRONT IS SLOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND
TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE STILL INCREASING AT A GOOD PACE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012/

AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS

MAINLY VFR CONDS TO DOMINATE THE TAF PD. HOWEVER...IF SHOWERS AND/OR
TSTORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM OVER TAF SITES...BRIEF MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR
CONDS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION
FOR THIS TO HAPPEN WOULD BE AT KAMA...WHERE CHANCES ARE ABOUT 40
PERCENT AND A VCTS MENTION WAS INCLUDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

WINDS WILL START OUT OF THE NORTH AT KDHT AND KGUY...WHILE REMAINING
VARIABLE AT KAMA THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT WASHES OUT NEAR KAMA.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST TONIGHT AND VEER AROUND TO
THE SOUTH ON THU.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z KAMA TAF...WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF
AMA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS EXPECT LIGHT WINDS...THOUGH DIRECTION
MAY BE VARIABLE. SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA  WHILE THE TERMINAL MAY NOT SEE
A DIRECT IMPACT DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE...THOUGHT THERE WAS ENOUGH OF
A RISK TO INCLUDE AT LEAST A MENTION OF VCSH. UNDER ANY TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS...MVFR VISIBILITY AND STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
SOME LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...IF WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERLY
UPSLOPE...THOUGH THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE 12Z KDHT AND KGUY TAFS...WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF
THE TAF SITES BY 18Z. SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA ARE VERY POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS A HIGHER RISK OF TSRA
AT KGUY WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER...SO HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH AT KGUY FOR NOW. UNDER ANY TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS...MVFR VISIBILITY AND STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME
LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...IF WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE
EAST...THOUGH THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

JOHNSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE OVER WEST AND NORTH TEXAS WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT BRINGING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...THE BEST CHANCES LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO WEST NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND THEN STALLING OUT OVER THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE DOING A BETTER JOB
OVER THE NAM AND ECMWF...SO WILL FOLLOW CLOSE. A MUCH STRONGER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED FRIDAY WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES...AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BY FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING ONE LAST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION BEFORE SUBSIDENCE
PREVAILS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MORE SEASONABLE OR UNSEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS PREVAIL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

19/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
335 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-061100-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
335 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND MAY LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM DALHART TO GUYMON. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A DALHART TO GUYMON LINE THROUGH 11 PM CDT. STRONG WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THE HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT DURING THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A DALHART TO GUYMON LINE.

KB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
334 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

TXZ012-013-017-018-052100-
ARMSTRONG TX-CARSON TX-POTTER TX-RANDALL TX-
334 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ARMSTRONG...EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN CARSON...NORTHEASTERN RANDALL AND SOUTHEASTERN POTTER
COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 331 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAKE TANGLEWOOD...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CANYON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  AMARILLO...           LAKE TANGLEWOOD...    TIMBERCREEK CANYON...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

BJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
337 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

TXZ018-052100-
ARMSTRONG TX-
337 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN ARMSTRONG COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM CDT...

AT 335 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES EAST OF WAYSIDE...OR 24 MILES SOUTH OF
CLAUDE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WAYSIDE...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

BJS