Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
428 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE ADVANCING EASTWARD
TOWARD CENTRAL VA/NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NE TO SW ACROSS OUR FA. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
EARLIER TODAY ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPR 80S/LOW 90S
ACROSS EASTERN VA AND NE NC...AND THEREFORE MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY
ACROSS THIS REGION (ML CAPE 2000-2500 J/KG). THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH THE ADVANCING SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF OUR FA ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 UNDER A
SVR TSTM WATCH UNTIL 02Z. THE GREATEST THREATS WILL BE FOR LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT DUE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR UP TO 40 KT.

LATEST HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIP
CHANCES BEING LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN VA (ESPECIALLY THE TIDEWATER
AREA) AND NE NC THROUGH THE EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN NO
LESS THAN 50% POPS FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH 00Z.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT/SHORTWAVE PUSH OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE L-M60S WELL INLAND
TO U60S-L70S NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE
AREA. EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. MAINLY CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. THE FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE SW
ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT AND AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ANY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL
LATE AFTN/EVEN AT THE EARLIEST DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT. EXPECT SKY COVER TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL LATE
AFTN WHEN LOW POPS MOVE IN FROM NW TO SE. LOW-LEVEL
TEMPS/THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S...ESPECIALLY
IF FULL EXTENT OF SW FLOW AND DECENT MIXING CAN BE REALIZED.

A LARGE UPPER LOW STALLS OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY WHICH
CAUSES THE ADVANCING SFC COLD FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AND ONLY SLOWLY
PASS THROUGH OUR FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY OVER THE CAROLINAS LATE SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
SOLID CHC POPS (30-40%) ACROSS THE AREA FOR NOW AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL GO WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF MODEL FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. FRNTL BNDRY WILL SLIDE JUST OFF THE CST FOR SAT NGT
INTO MON MORNG...WITH WEAK AREAS OF LO PRES MOVNG UP ALNG THE FRNT.
THAT BNDRY WILL SHIFT FARTHER S AND E INTO THE ATLC MON AFTN THRU
WED...AS HI PRES BLDS OVR THE AREA THEN JUST OFFSHR. HIEST CHC POPS
WILL BE ACRS THE SRN AND ERN CNTIES SAT NGT THRU MON...THEN POPS
WILL DIMINISH TO JUST SLGT CHC OVR ERN/SERN CNTIES TUE/TUE NGT. DRY
FCST ALL AREAS FOR WED. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S
SUN MORNG...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S MON...TUE AND WED MORNGS. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT TO BKN CU (4000-5000 FT) AND ALTOCUMULUS (10000-15000 FT)
EXPECTED THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...AS COLD FRNT PUSHES EWRD AND
OFF THE CST. BEST SUPPORT FOR SCTD TSTMS WILL BE EAST OF I95...BUT
BOTH COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THUNDER AT ANY TAF
SITE. FRNT MOVES OUT TO SEA LATER THIS EVENG INTO THU MORNG...AS
HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. THE HI WILL SLIDE OUT TO SEA FRI
MORNG...AND ANOTHER STRNGER COLD FRNT WILL PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE
AREA FRI NGT AND SAT. OUTSIDE ANY ISLTD OR SCTD PCPN THIS AFTN AND
EVENG...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTN THRU AT LEAST FRI
MORNG.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHRT TERM TNGT THRU FRI. FRNTL BNDRY WILL PUSH
OFF THE CST TNGT...WITH WNDS TURNING TO THE NW OR N LESS THAN 15
KT. HI PRES BLDS OVR THE AREA ON THU...THEN SLIDES OFFSHR FOR THU
NGT INTO FRI MORNG. NNW WNDS ARND 10 KT OR LESS WILL BECOME SE OR
S BY THU EVENG...THEN SSW THU NGT INTO FRI MORNG. SSW WNDS 15 KT
OR LESS FRI AFTN INTO FRI NGT AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRNT. WAVES 1 TO
2 FT AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
307 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ063-064-070>100-161915-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-HANOVER-CAROLINE-
CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-
RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-
CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-
SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-
NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-
VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
307 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 580 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS
VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA AND THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ048-049-060>062-065>069-161915-
FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-MECKLENBURG-
LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-
307 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658-161915-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK TO CAPE HENRY VA...INCLUDING THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL-
RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER FROM URBANNA TO WINDMILL POINT-YORK RIVER-
JAMES RIVER FROM JAMESTOWN TO THE JAMES RIVER BRIDGE-
JAMES RIVER FROM THE JAMES RIVER BRIDGE TO THE HAMPTON ROADS BRIDGE-
TUNNEL-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT TO
20 NM-
307 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 580 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...CURRITUCK SOUND...THE EASTERN JAMES RIVER...THE EASTERN
RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER AND THE EASTERN YORK RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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