Severe Thunderstorm Warning 160, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
300 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE ADVANCING EASTWARD
TOWARD CENTRAL VA/NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NE TO SW ACROSS OUR FA. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
EARLIER TODAY ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPR 80S/LOW 90S
ACROSS EASTERN VA AND NE NC...AND THEREFORE MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY
ACROSS THIS REGION (ML CAPE 2000-2500 J/KG). THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH THE ADVANCING SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF OUR FA ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 UNDER A
SVR TSTM WATCH UNTIL 02Z. THE GREATEST THREATS WILL BE FOR LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT DUE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR UP TO 40 KT.

LATEST HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIP
CHANCES BEING LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN VA (ESPECIALLY THE TIDEWATER
AREA) AND NE NC THROUGH THE EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN NO
LESS THAN 50% POPS FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH 00Z.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT/SHORTWAVE PUSH OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE L-M60S WELL INLAND
TO U60S-L70S NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE
AREA. EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. MAINLY CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. THE FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE SW
ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT AND AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ANY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL
LATE AFTN/EVEN AT THE EARLIEST DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT. EXPECT SKY COVER TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL LATE
AFTN WHEN LOW POPS MOVE IN FROM NW TO SE. LOW-LEVEL
TEMPS/THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S...ESPECIALLY
IF FULL EXTENT OF SW FLOW AND DECENT MIXING CAN BE REALIZED.

A LARGE UPPER LOW STALLS OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY WHICH
CAUSES THE ADVANCING SFC COLD FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AND ONLY SLOWLY
PASS THROUGH OUR FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY OVER THE CAROLINAS LATE SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
SOLID CHC POPS (30-40%) ACROSS THE AREA FOR NOW AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF MODEL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. COLD FRNT
WILL PUSH ACRS THE AREA AND JUST OFF THE CST FRI NGT INTO SAT
NGT...THEN LINGER JUST OFF THE CST SUN INTO ERLY TUE...BEFORE MOVNG
FARTHER OUT TO SEA BY LATE TUE. BEST CHCS FOR SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL
BE FRI NGT INTO SAT EVENG...AHEAD OF AND ALNG THE FRNT. THEN...SLGT
TO SML CHC OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER MAINLY OVR SRN AND ERN CNTIES
LATER SAT NGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS WEAK AREAS OF LO PRES MOVE UP ALNG
THE FRNTL BNDRY OFF THE CST. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR
70S SAT MORNG...IN THE LWR 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG...AND IN THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 MON AND TUE MORNGS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LWR
TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT TO BKN CU (4000-5000 FT) AND ALTOCUMULUS (10000-15000 FT)
EXPECTED THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...AS COLD FRNT PUSHES EWRD AND
OFF THE CST. BEST SUPPORT FOR SCTD TSTMS WILL BE EAST OF I95...BUT
BOTH COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THUNDER AT ANY TAF
SITE. FRNT MOVES OUT TO SEA LATER THIS EVENG INTO THU MORNG...AS
HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. THE HI WILL SLIDE OUT TO SEA FRI
MORNG...AND ANOTHER STRNGER COLD FRNT WILL PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE
AREA FRI NGT AND SAT. OUTSIDE ANY ISLTD OR SCTD PCPN THIS AFTN AND
EVENG...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTN THRU AT LEAST FRI
MORNG.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THRU THE WEEK. S-SW WINDS TODAY (AOB 15 KTS)
BECOME W-NW FOR A WHILE LATE TONITE AND THU BEHIND WEAK CDFRNT. FLOW
BECOMES SW AGAIN BY FRI AHEAD OF NEXT CDFRNT PROGGED ACROSS REGION
UNTIL ERLY SAT. SEAS 2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MPR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
307 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ063-064-070>100-161915-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-HANOVER-CAROLINE-
CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-
RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-
CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-
SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-
NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-
VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
307 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 580 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS
VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA AND THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ048-049-060>062-065>069-161915-
FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-MECKLENBURG-
LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-
307 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658-161915-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK TO CAPE HENRY VA...INCLUDING THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL-
RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER FROM URBANNA TO WINDMILL POINT-YORK RIVER-
JAMES RIVER FROM JAMESTOWN TO THE JAMES RIVER BRIDGE-
JAMES RIVER FROM THE JAMES RIVER BRIDGE TO THE HAMPTON ROADS BRIDGE-
TUNNEL-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT TO
20 NM-
307 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 580 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...CURRITUCK SOUND...THE EASTERN JAMES RIVER...THE EASTERN
RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER AND THE EASTERN YORK RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
336 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     OAK HILL ESTATES        37.24N  77.53W
08/15/2012                   CHESTERFIELD       VA   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1200647

JO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
339 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

VAZ091-093>098-152030-
CHESAPEAKE VA-ISLE OF WIGHT VA-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON
VA-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH VA-SUFFOLK VA-VIRGINIA BEACH VA-YORK VA-
339 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

AT 339 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CHURCHLAND...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR NORFOLK NAS AT 350 PM EDT...WARDS
CORNER...AND...WILLOUGHBY SPIT AT 355 PM EDT...OCEAN VIEW...AND...
NORVIEW AT 400 PM EDT...NORFOLK INTERNATIONAL ARPT AT 405 PM EDT...
BAYSIDE AT 415 PM EDT...CAPE HENRY AT 430 PM EDT.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS. IF YOU HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE INTO
A SAFE SHELTER BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR AREA. REMAIN INDOORS
UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 3670 7663 3699 7654 3696 7647 3691 7646
      3690 7641 3693 7639 3693 7634 3697 7633
      3697 7630 3700 7634 3696 7643 3705 7650
      3712 7629 3709 7626 3698 7629 3692 7611
      3693 7599 3671 7593

MINNICK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
345 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PETERSBURG              37.20N  77.39W
08/15/2012                   CITY OF PETERSBURG VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 30 MPH WINDS... LARGE BRANCHES DOWN... PEA
            SIZE HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1200648

JEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
354 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SYSONBY RIDGE           37.21N  77.48W
08/15/2012                   DINWIDDIE          VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ALONG MCILWAINE ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1200649

JO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
356 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     WATER SPOUT      2 SW LASSITER COURT     36.95N  76.43W
08/15/2012                   CITY OF NEWPORT NE VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATERSPOUT TOUCHED DOWN FOR SEVERAL MINUTES JUST OFF
            NEWPORT NEWS THEN LIFTED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1200650

JO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SMITHFIELD              36.98N  76.62W
08/15/2012                   ISLE OF WIGHT      VA   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED ALONG SMITHFIELD BOULEVARD.
            DAMAGE COULD BE FROM A POSSIBLE WEAK TORNADO. NO
            STRUCTURAL DAMAGE REPORTED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1200651

JO