Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
339 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY ALLOWING FOR A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO NEXT WEEK AS A WARM...HUMID AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN NE NC. ORGANIZED CONVECTION LOCATED AROUND PERIPHERY OF
LOW TO WORK INTO SOUTHERN ZONES IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE
OBSERVED A SLIGHT MOISTURE SURGE MUCH OF THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW/MID 70S WITH
BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP WATER UP TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES. WARM AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH CAPE
VALUE GREATER THAN 2500 J/KG AND LI GREATER THAN -8... WILL
COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
GOING MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE
CWA. HOWEVER...WEAK FLOW/SHEAR WILL LIMIT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO WEAK STORM
MOTION. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME
STORMS TO CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WHILE FREEZING LEVELS REMAIN
ABOVE 14K FT...STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MODERATE SIZED HAIL. WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS EASTERN NC. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED
POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STUBBORN SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE FINALLY BREAKING DOWN AND LIFTING
NORTHEAST. MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PARK OVER EASTERN NC
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE PHASING WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE. VORT MAX WILL TRACK THROUGH WV FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING INTO
MD/SOUTHERN PA FRIDAY EVENING PLACING BEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS. THERE ALSO EXIST SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCES THAT COULD ALSO HELP ENHANCE CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL LOCATE FROM THE
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES UPPER 80S TO LOW/MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL NORTH OF FA EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
CONT TO SHOW LEE TROF AND ENUF MOISTURE ARND REGION TO KEEP CHC
POPS MON/TUE. MOISTURE SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WED SO BEST CHC
POPS WILL SHIFT ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA. CHC POPS THU AS COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS REGION. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD. HIGHS
U80S-L90S. LOWS IN THE U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM THU AFTN/EVENING. STORMS
ARE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN SO HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KSBY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. KSBY MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG/STRATUS
FRI MORNING. CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP FRI AFTN DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING
WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE.

SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTNS THROUGH MON WITH
PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS AS S-SW WND FLOW ARND OFFSHORE RIDGE DOMINATES THRU THE
WEEKEND. ONLY THREAT FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE IN SCT CONVECTION
WHICH IS HANDLED THROUGH STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS. SOME INCREASE IN
P-GRDNT LATE SUNDAY AHEAD OF APPRCHG TROF. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN COASTAL WATERS WHERE SEAS OUT NR
20 NM MAY RERACH 5 FT. OTW...WINDS WINDS BELOW 20 KTS WITH 2-3 FT
SEAS EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
DATA FOR JULY AVG TEMPERATURE:

RICHMOND:  82.7 F...2ND WARMEST ON RECORD.
NORFOLK:   82.5 F...6TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
SALISBURY: 82.8 F...WARMEST ON RECORD.

SEE PNSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX RADAR IS DOWN DUE TO A FAILED AZIMUTH MOTOR. PARTS HAVE BEEN
ORDERED. HOWEVER, REPAIRS MAY TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO COMPLETE. RETURN
TO SERVICE IS NOT KNOWN AT THIS TIME. FURTHER DETAILS WILL BE
PASSED ALONG AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...NONE.
VA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ063-070-
     071-080>083.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MPR
CLIMATE...AKQ
EQUIPMENT...AKQ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
550 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

MDZ025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>062-064>069-072>079-
084>100-032200-
MARYLAND BEACHES-NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-
INLAND CURRITUCK-BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-
FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-CAROLINE-
MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-KING WILLIAM-
KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-
BRUNSWICK-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-
JAMES CITY-YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-
NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-
NORTHAMPTON VA-
550 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS
VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658-032200-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK TO CAPE HENRY VA...INCLUDING THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL-
RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER FROM URBANNA TO WINDMILL POINT-YORK RIVER-
JAMES RIVER FROM JAMESTOWN TO THE JAMES RIVER BRIDGE-
JAMES RIVER FROM THE JAMES RIVER BRIDGE TO THE HAMPTON ROADS BRIDGE-
TUNNEL-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT TO
20 NM-
550 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...CURRITUCK SOUND...THE EASTERN JAMES RIVER...THE EASTERN
RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER AND THE EASTERN YORK RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ063-070-071-080>083-032200-
HANOVER-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-
NEW KENT-
550 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ021>024-032200-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-
550 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
FRIDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
609 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 4 N CHESAPEAKE BEACH    36.97N  76.11W
08/02/2012  M45 MPH          ANZ634             VA   BUOY

            39 KT GUST AT 1ST ISLAND

&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1200628

05

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
611 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND NWLON CAPE HENRY        36.93N  76.01W
08/02/2012  M39 MPH          CITY OF VIRGINIA B VA   BUOY

&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1200629

05

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
611 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

VAZ075>078-022245-
LANCASTER VA-NORTHUMBERLAND VA-RICHMOND VA-WESTMORELAND VA-
611 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK...

AT 610 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CALLAO...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR CALLAO AT 620 PM EDT...GIBEON AT
635 PM EDT...VILLAGE...AND...MULCH AT 640 PM EDT...HAYNESVILLE...
AND...OLDHAMS AT 645 PM EDT.

WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3808 7653 3805 7651 3803 7651 3802 7646
      3796 7639 3782 7655 3803 7677 3810 7656

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
626 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E FOURSQUARE          36.96N  76.66W
08/02/2012                   ISLE OF WIGHT      VA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TREE DOWN ONTO POWER LINE

&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1200630

LALEXAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
636 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 2 NNW STINGRAY POINT    37.58N  76.32W
08/02/2012  M36 MPH          ANZ631             VA   BUOY

            STINGRAY POINT WINDALERT BUOY GUST TO 36KT

&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1200631

05

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
636 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

VAZ060-061-066-022315-
CUMBERLAND VA-LUNENBURG VA-PRINCE EDWARD VA-
636 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PRINCE EDWARD COUNTY...

AT 634 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM FROM 7 MILES SOUTH OF DARLINGTON HEIGHTS TO
HAMPDEN SYDNEY...OR FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE
TO HAMPDEN SYDNEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...

RICE AROUND 715 PM EDT...

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. SMALL HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IF YOU
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
INTO A SAFE SHELTER BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR AREA. REMAIN
INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 3734 7847 3726 7824 3701 7846 3702 7847
      3708 7846 3709 7850 3713 7853 3714 7855
      3714 7859 3717 7864

LBROWN