Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
220 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...WITH HOT
CONDITIONS AND LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED SE VA/NE NC WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
NORTHERN NC. SFC WARM FRONT/LOW PRESSURE TO LOCATE ACROSS
NORTHERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. REMNANT MOISTURE...WITH PRECIP WATERS
AROUND 1.5 INCHES...LOCATED EASTERN NC/SE VA COMBINED WILL
INTERACT WITH AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTERNOON. DECENT
INSTABILITY...CAPE 2000-2500 J/KG AND LI -5 TO -6...ALONG WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS UNDER
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...WEAK FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FUTURE TRENDS AND ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY.

INCREASE IN THICKNESS VALUES AND HEIGHT VALUES WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS LATE
MORNING IN THE MID/UPPER 80S UNDER SUNNY SKIES...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGS
ABOVE 24 HOURS AGO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HOT CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS CONTINUES INTO FRI AND
SAT. WEAK ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN ZONAL MID-LVL FLOW ALONGSIDE SFC
BNDRYS WILL LEAD TO 20-30% POPS. WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES AS WELL. TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S FRI
THEN LOW TO MID 90S SAT. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY MSTLY SNY TO PARTLY
CLDY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL GO WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. HOT/VRY WRM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE ACRS THE
AREA SAT NGT INTO MON...AS SFC HI PRES REMAINS OFF THE MID ATLC CST
RESULTING IN SSW FLO. SLGT TO SML CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS
AND TSTMS EXPECTED SAT NGT INTO SUN NGT...THEN CHC POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION MON AND MON NGT...AS A COLD FRNT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
BEST CHCS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO SRN/SE PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUE
THRU WED...AS THE FRNTL BNDRY SINKS SE THRU THIS AREA. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S TUE AND WED MORNGS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S
TO LWR 90S SUN AND MON...AND IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM THU AFTN/EVENING. STORMS
ARE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN SO HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KSBY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. KSBY MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG/STRATUS
FRI MORNING. CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP FRI AFTN DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING
WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE.

SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTNS THROUGH MON WITH
PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH SUN.
THE WIND SHOULD MAINLY BE OUT OF THE SSW WITH SPEEDS AOB 15KT. LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD QUEBEC SUN INTO
MON...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. SEAS
SHOULD LARGELY BE 2-3FT (OCCASIONALLY 4FT N)...WITH 1-2FT WAVES OVER
THE BAY AND PERIODICALLY 2-3FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
DATA FOR JULY AVG TEMPERATURE:

RICHMOND:  82.7 F...2ND WARMEST ON RECORD.
NORFOLK:   82.5 F...6TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
SALISBURY: 82.8 F...WARMEST ON RECORD.

SEE PNSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX RADAR IS DOWN DUE TO A FAILED AZIMUTH MOTOR. PARTS HAVE BEEN
ORDERED. HOWEVER, REPAIRS MAY TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO COMPLETE. RETURN
TO SERVICE IS NOT KNOWN AT THIS TIME. FURTHER DETAILS WILL BE
PASSED ALONG AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...NONE.
VA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ063-070-
     071-080>083.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...AJZ
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
300 AM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

MDZ025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>062-064>069-072>079-
084>100-030700-
MARYLAND BEACHES-NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-
INLAND CURRITUCK-BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-
FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-CAROLINE-
MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-KING WILLIAM-
KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-
BRUNSWICK-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-
JAMES CITY-YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-
NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-
NORTHAMPTON VA-
300 AM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS
VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658-030700-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK TO CAPE HENRY VA...INCLUDING THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL-
RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER FROM URBANNA TO WINDMILL POINT-YORK RIVER-
JAMES RIVER FROM JAMESTOWN TO THE JAMES RIVER BRIDGE-
JAMES RIVER FROM THE JAMES RIVER BRIDGE TO THE HAMPTON ROADS BRIDGE-
TUNNEL-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT TO
20 NM-
300 AM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...CURRITUCK SOUND...THE EASTERN JAMES RIVER...THE EASTERN
RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER AND THE EASTERN YORK RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ063-070-071-080>083-030700-
HANOVER-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-
NEW KENT-
300 AM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ021>024-030700-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-
300 AM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
122 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

MDZ023-024-021745-
INLAND WORCESTER MD-SOMERSET MD-
122 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE...

AT 120 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SNOW HILL...OR ABOUT 6 MILES
NORTHEAST OF POCOMOKE CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR WHITESBURG AT 125 PM EDT...SNOW HILL AT
145 PM EDT.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STRONG
STORM.

EXPECT SMALL HAIL AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IN THE
PATH OF THESE STORMS. IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE INTO A SAFE SHELTER BEFORE THESE STORMS
REACH YOUR AREA. REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 3828 7548 3818 7527 3801 7546 3812 7564

MINNICK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
222 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

VAZ081-021900-
PRINCE GEORGE-
222 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CITY OF HOPEWELL...CITY OF
PETERSBURG AND PRINCE GEORGE COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 222 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
TEMPLETON...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTH OF
PETERSBURG TO 7 MILES WEST OF DISPUTANTA TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
DISPUTANTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZED HAIL.
AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE AT RISK. TAKE SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER IN A BUILDING A
VEHICLE PROVIDES SAFETY FROM LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3713 7740 3732 7729 3731 7726 3730 7710
      3718 7708 3700 7739

05