Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
351 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS EASTWARD MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHWRS/TSTRMS FIRING UP ALONG LEE TROF THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS SEEM
TO HAVE MORE LIGHTNING THAN YSTRDY WITH WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND
LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS GIVEN PW'S ARND 2 IN. ADDITIONAL STORMS
DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING (HIGHEST POPS NORTH). ENUF MOISTURE AND SUPPORT TO CARRY
SLGHT CHC POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MOST AREAS. NOT MUCH
FOG EXPECTED WITH DP TEMPS AOA 70. WARM AND HUMID WITH LOWS L-M70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR LVL TROF MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY MONDAY AS THE STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS BUILDS EAST AND ESSENTIALLY MERGES WITH THE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK TROF /
VORT MAX MOVG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MON. BEST SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION (LOW CHC POPS) PROGGED ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF FA WITH
SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE NORTH. H85 TMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE L-M90S
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES ARND 100. LINGERING POPS MON EVENING THEN
PT CLDY...WARM AND HUMID. LOWS IN THE L-M70S.

UPR LEVEL BERMUDA RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED TUE AND WED. LEE TROF
PROGGED ONCE AGAIN TUE...BUT LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO
CAP THE CHC FOR PRECIP...SO WILL KEEP TUE DRY ATTM. H85 TMPS SPRT
TMPS IN THE M-U90S. GIVEN THE WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT DP TMPS TO
MIX OUT DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS KEEPING HEAT INDEX VALUES WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF ACTUAL AIR TEMPS (U90S-L100S). WARM AND HUMID TUE
NIGHT. LOWS L-M70S.

SETUP A LITTLE DIFFERENT WED. FLOW BECOMES MORE SW ALONG WITH INCRG
LL MOISTURE AHEAD OF APPRCHG FRONT. THIS MAY ACTUALLY KEEP DP TEMPS
UP A BIT. COMBO OF HIGHS IN THE M-U90S ALONG DP TMPS AOA 70 MAY LEAD
TO HEAT INDEX VALUES ARND 105...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN VA / NE NC
COUNTIES. LATEST DATA SUPPORTS SCT CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON OVR
NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES WITH ISLTD POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS VA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN VA THURSDAY MORNING. IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH THICKNESS VALUES BEING HIGHEST ACROSS THE SW ZONES ALLOWING
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE MID 90S...WHILE OTHER AREAS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
ELSEWHERE. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...PRECIP WATERS AROUND 2.25 INCHES...FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST FORCING WILL
COME LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE FRONT.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL NC FRIDAY MORNING USHERING
IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
AREA WIDE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
THANKS TO NWLY FLOW ALOFT.

A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MID LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. WILL STILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. LATEST MODELS KEEP
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/EAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
WITH BERMUDA HIGH ATTEMPTING TO WORK BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THUS
WILL KEEP LONG RANGE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER TAF SITES BUT LOTS OF DEVELOPING CU ACROSS THE
REGION. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL GENERALLY DEVELOP FROM WEST OF I95
EASTWARD AS THE MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS WEST AND NORTH OF RIC.
ONCE AGAIN EXPECT CONVECTION TO LAST UNTIL ONE TO TWO HOURS PAST
SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SW 5 TO 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
PASSING THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL HELP TO INCREASE WINDS TO
10 TO 15 KT AND GRADUALLY SHFT TO MORE W-WNW ON MON. PTCHY FOG AND
STRATUS A PSBLY FOR THE EARLY MORNING HRS BUT HAVE LITTLE
CONFIDENCE TO INDICATE ANY SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS IN TAFS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS MON AFTN THRU TUE...AS WEAK HI PRES
PREVAILS OVR THE AREA. BUT...MVFR/PATCHY IFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ERLY TUE MORNG.

&&

.MARINE...
SWLY WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
GUSTS OF 20 KTS. WAVES ACROSS THE BAY EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 2 FT WITH
THE COAST WATERS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ACTING TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE WATERS AND KICKING UP SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SLY TONIGHT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20
KT...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOUTH
OF THE BAY. SCA CONDITIONS LOOK BORDERLINE...SO WILL WAIT FOR
ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE AND OBS TO SEE IF SCA IS NEEDED.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCE
MOVES WEST. THEREAFTER...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS
ON THURSDAY. WAVES WILL GENERALLY BE 1 TO 2 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...SAM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
553 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

MDZ021>025-VAZ048-049-060>091-094-099-100-162200-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-
MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-
KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-
NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-
CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-
SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-ACCOMACK-
NORTHAMPTON VA-
553 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF
VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF
VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658-162200-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK TO CAPE HENRY VA...INCLUDING THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL-
RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER FROM URBANNA TO WINDMILL POINT-YORK RIVER-
JAMES RIVER FROM JAMESTOWN TO THE JAMES RIVER BRIDGE-
JAMES RIVER FROM THE JAMES RIVER BRIDGE TO THE HAMPTON ROADS BRIDGE-
TUNNEL-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT TO
20 NM-
553 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...CURRITUCK SOUND...THE EASTERN JAMES RIVER...THE EASTERN
RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER AND THE EASTERN YORK RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ012>017-030>032-VAZ092-093-095>097-162200-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-
NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-
553 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ102-VAZ098-162200-
OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-VIRGINIA BEACH-
553 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
515 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

VAZ070-071-152200-
CHESTERFIELD VA-HENRICO VA-
515 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM APPROACHING RICHMOND...

AT 514 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF BON AIR...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.
THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR BON AIR AT 520 PM EDT...DREWRYS
BLUFF...AND...DOWNTOWN RICHMOND AT 535 PM EDT...BENSLEY AT 540 PM
EDT...RICHMOND HEIGHTS AT 545 PM EDT...MONTROSE AT 550 PM EDT...
VARINA AT 555 PM EDT.

EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND TROPICAL
DOWNPOURS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. THE RUNOFF FROM THE RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND POSSIBLE
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

LAT...LON 3759 7737 3738 7729 3734 7768 3751 7773

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
521 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

MDZ021-152145-
DORCHESTER MD-
521 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHERN DORCHESTER COUNTY...

AT 521 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER HURLOCK...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR ELDORADO...AND...BROOKVIEW AT 530 PM EDT.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THESE STORMS. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE INTO A SAFE SHELTER
BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR AREA. REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS
HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 3871 7581 3868 7579 3869 7576 3864 7570
      3858 7570 3853 7595 3863 7599 3865 7596
      3866 7596 3870 7590 3871 7585

LSA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
528 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

VAZ048-060>062-068-069-152215-
AMELIA VA-CUMBERLAND VA-FLUVANNA VA-GOOCHLAND VA-POWHATAN VA-PRINCE
EDWARD VA-
528 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...

AT 527 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5 MILES WEST OF FORK UNION TO 17 MILES WEST
OF GUINEA MILLS...OR FROM 5 MILES WEST OF FORK UNION TO 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF DILLWYN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  FORK UNION AROUND 540 PM EDT...
  COLUMBIA AROUND 550 PM EDT...
  DUNCAN AROUND 555 PM EDT...
  FARMVILLE AROUND 605 PM EDT...
  SUNNYSIDE AROUND 615 PM EDT...

EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND TROPICAL
DOWNPOURS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. THE RUNOFF FROM THE RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND POSSIBLE
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

LAT...LON 3740 7858 3738 7858 3734 7848 3761 7827
      3768 7824 3773 7837 3774 7843 3777 7849
      3788 7838 3772 7801 3724 7826 3736 7854
      3738 7861

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
548 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

MDZ022>025-VAZ077-099-152245-
ACCOMACK VA-INLAND WORCESTER MD-MARYLAND BEACHES MD-NORTHUMBERLAND
VA-SOMERSET MD-WICOMICO MD-
548 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE...

AT 547 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM PRINCESS ANNE TO 9 MILES WEST OF
TANGIER...OR FROM PRINCESS ANNE TO 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FAIR
PORT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
NEAR...  POCOMOKE CITY AROUND 605 PM EDT...
  SNOW HILL AROUND 620 PM EDT...
  PARKSLEY AROUND 635 PM EDT...
  ONLEY AROUND 640 PM EDT...

EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND TROPICAL
DOWNPOURS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. THE RUNOFF FROM THE RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND POSSIBLE
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

LAT...LON 3787 7534 3784 7547 3759 7565 3765 7589
      3777 7581 3780 7591 3781 7575 3795 7567
      3796 7568 3779 7597 3786 7601 3775 7632
      3789 7592 3790 7604 3791 7591 3831 7569
      3833 7508

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
602 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHESAPEAKE BEACH        37.84N  76.25W
07/15/2012                   NORTHUMBERLAND     VA   911 CALL CENTER

            POWER LINE DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1200545

LALEXAND

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