Severe Thunderstorm Warning 127, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
351 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS EASTWARD MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHWRS/TSTRMS FIRING UP ALONG LEE TROF THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS SEEM
TO HAVE MORE LIGHTNING THAN YSTRDY WITH WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND
LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS GIVEN PW'S ARND 2 IN. ADDITIONAL STORMS
DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING (HIGHEST POPS NORTH). ENUF MOISTURE AND SUPPORT TO CARRY
SLGHT CHC POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MOST AREAS. NOT MUCH
FOG EXPECTED WITH DP TEMPS AOA 70. WARM AND HUMID WITH LOWS L-M70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR LVL TROF MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY MONDAY AS THE STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS BUILDS EAST AND ESSENTIALLY MERGES WITH THE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK TROF /
VORT MAX MOVG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MON. BEST SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION (LOW CHC POPS) PROGGED ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF FA WITH
SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE NORTH. H85 TMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE L-M90S
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES ARND 100. LINGERING POPS MON EVENING THEN
PT CLDY...WARM AND HUMID. LOWS IN THE L-M70S.

UPR LEVEL BERMUDA RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED TUE AND WED. LEE TROF
PROGGED ONCE AGAIN TUE...BUT LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO
CAP THE CHC FOR PRECIP...SO WILL KEEP TUE DRY ATTM. H85 TMPS SPRT
TMPS IN THE M-U90S. GIVEN THE WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT DP TMPS TO
MIX OUT DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS KEEPING HEAT INDEX VALUES WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF ACTUAL AIR TEMPS (U90S-L100S). WARM AND HUMID TUE
NIGHT. LOWS L-M70S.

SETUP A LITTLE DIFFERENT WED. FLOW BECOMES MORE SW ALONG WITH INCRG
LL MOISTURE AHEAD OF APPRCHG FRONT. THIS MAY ACTUALLY KEEP DP TEMPS
UP A BIT. COMBO OF HIGHS IN THE M-U90S ALONG DP TMPS AOA 70 MAY LEAD
TO HEAT INDEX VALUES ARND 105...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN VA / NE NC
COUNTIES. LATEST DATA SUPPORTS SCT CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON OVR
NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES WITH ISLTD POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS VA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN VA THURSDAY MORNING. IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH THICKNESS VALUES BEING HIGHEST ACROSS THE SW ZONES ALLOWING
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE MID 90S...WHILE OTHER AREAS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
ELSEWHERE. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...PRECIP WATERS AROUND 2.25 INCHES...FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST FORCING WILL
COME LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE FRONT.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL NC FRIDAY MORNING USHERING
IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
AREA WIDE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
THANKS TO NWLY FLOW ALOFT.

A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MID LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. WILL STILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. LATEST MODELS KEEP
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/EAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
WITH BERMUDA HIGH ATTEMPTING TO WORK BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THUS
WILL KEEP LONG RANGE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER TAF SITES BUT LOTS OF DEVELOPING CU ACROSS THE
REGION. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL GENERALLY DEVELOP FROM WEST OF I95
EASTWARD AS THE MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS WEST AND NORTH OF RIC.
ONCE AGAIN EXPECT CONVECTION TO LAST UNTIL ONE TO TWO HOURS PAST
SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SW 5 TO 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
PASSING THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL HELP TO INCREASE WINDS TO
10 TO 15 KT AND GRADUALLY SHFT TO MORE W-WNW ON MON. PTCHY FOG AND
STRATUS A PSBLY FOR THE EARLY MORNING HRS BUT HAVE LITTLE
CONFIDENCE TO INDICATE ANY SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS IN TAFS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS MON AFTN THRU TUE...AS WEAK HI PRES
PREVAILS OVR THE AREA. BUT...MVFR/PATCHY IFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ERLY TUE MORNG.

&&

.MARINE...
SWLY WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
GUSTS OF 20 KTS. WAVES ACROSS THE BAY EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 2 FT WITH
THE COAST WATERS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ACTING TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE WATERS AND KICKING UP SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SLY TONIGHT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20
KT...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOUTH
OF THE BAY. SCA CONDITIONS LOOK BORDERLINE...SO WILL WAIT FOR
ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE AND OBS TO SEE IF SCA IS NEEDED.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCE
MOVES WEST. THEREAFTER...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS
ON THURSDAY. WAVES WILL GENERALLY BE 1 TO 2 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...SAM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
355 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

MDZ021>025-VAZ048-049-060>091-094-099-100-162000-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-
MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-
KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-
NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-
CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-
SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-ACCOMACK-
NORTHAMPTON VA-
355 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF
VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF
VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658-162000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK TO CAPE HENRY VA...INCLUDING THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL-
RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER FROM URBANNA TO WINDMILL POINT-YORK RIVER-
JAMES RIVER FROM JAMESTOWN TO THE JAMES RIVER BRIDGE-
JAMES RIVER FROM THE JAMES RIVER BRIDGE TO THE HAMPTON ROADS BRIDGE-
TUNNEL-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT TO
20 NM-
355 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...CURRITUCK SOUND...THE EASTERN JAMES RIVER...THE EASTERN
RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER AND THE EASTERN YORK RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ092-093-095>098-162000-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-SOUTHAMPTON-
ISLE OF WIGHT-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-
355 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND SOUTH
HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
245 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

MDZ021-022-151945-
DORCHESTER MD-WICOMICO MD-
245 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER DORCHESTER COUNTY...

AT 243 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SECRETARY...OR ABOUT 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HURLOCK...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
NEAR HURLOCK AT 305 PM EDT...BROOKVIEW AT 325 PM EDT...ELDORADO AT
330 PM EDT...GALESTOWN AT 345 PM EDT.

WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THESE STORMS. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE INTO A SAFE SHELTER
BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR AREA. REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS
HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 3863 7570 3850 7569 3846 7569 3843 7601
      3858 7606 3858 7603 3861 7599 3863 7599
      3869 7576

LSA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
256 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

VAZ062-063-069>071-151930-
CHESTERFIELD-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-HENRICO-POWHATAN-
256 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CHESTERFIELD...
GOOCHLAND...HANOVER...HENRICO AND POWHATAN COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM
EDT...

AT 255 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CENTERVILLE TO SHORT
PUMP TO SUBLETTS...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST
OF TUCKAHOE TO TUCKAHOE TO 8 MILES NORTH OF MOSELEY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING DITCHES...CREEKS...ROADWAYS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.

LAT...LON 3774 7763 3768 7758 3760 7752 3752 7780
      3756 7783 3764 7785

05

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

VAZ074>076-151930-
ESSEX VA-RICHMOND VA-WESTMORELAND VA-
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ESSEX...NORTHWESTERN
RICHMOND AND SOUTHERN WESTMORELAND COUNTIES...

AT 300 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR CARET...MOVING EAST
AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH...INTENSE LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER
TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM
APPROACHES. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM...AND
WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE
RAIN WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. THIS STORM
WILL BE NEAR NEWLAND AROUND 305 PM...NAYLORS BEACH AROUND 315
PM...PINEY GROVE AROUND 325 PM AND ETHEL AROUND 330 PM.

LAT...LON 3815 7663 3789 7666 3797 7703 3809 7702

05

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
307 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

VAZ063-064-072-073-151945-
CAROLINE VA-HANOVER VA-KING AND QUEEN VA-KING WILLIAM VA-
307 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING THROUGH PARTS OF CENTRAL VIRGINA...

AT 306 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER STUDLEY...OR ABOUT 7 MILES NORTH OF
MECHANICSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE NEAR ETNA MILLS AT 315 PM EDT...ENFIELD AT 325 PM EDT...EPWORTH AT
330 PM EDT...POLLARDS CORNER AT 335 PM EDT...TURPIN...AND...MANQUIN
AT 340 PM EDT...AYLETT AT 345 PM EDT.

WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THESE STORMS. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE INTO A SAFE SHELTER
BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR AREA. REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS
HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 3768 7704 3764 7732 3775 7755 3778 7740
      3778 7737 3780 7733 3782 7725 3790 7706

LSA

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