Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
430 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING...THEN
REMAIN STALLED THERE INTO THURSDAY. THE STALLED FRONT WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED MAINLY ACRS SRN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA
THRU THIS EVENG...WHERE HIER CAPE VALUES AND WEAK CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARIES EXIST. SEVERE TSTM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR SRN
HALF OF THE REGION WITH DAMAGING WNDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
THREATS. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS...AS
PWATS NEAR 2". STORMS WILL CALM DOWN LATER THIS EVENG WITH LOSS
OF HEATING...BUT STILL DECENT CHCS...ESPLY EXTRM SRN VA AND NE
NC...FOR LINGERING PCPN OVRNGT INTO TUE MORNG. OTHRWISE...PRTLY OR
MSTLY CLDY AND SOMEWHAT MUGGY TNGT WITH LOWS 70 TO 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY WILL LAY ACRS THE CAROLINAS TUE INTO THU WITH MAINLY
SCTD AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE FRNTL BNDRY WILL WASHOUT OR
DISSIPATE DURING THU...AS HIER 500 MB HEIGHTS AND BERMUDA HI PRES
BLD IN FM THE EAST. THE HIEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACRS THE SRN HALF
OF THE REGION. FOR TEMPS...RESPITE FM THE HEAT OF THE PAST WEEK
CONTINUES. MAX TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 80S
TUE...WED AND THU...WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 60S TO LWR
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER...MORE CLOUDS AND EVEN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS CONTINUES INTO MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD FOR THE
END OR THE WORK WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SSW INTO THE TN AND
LOWER MS VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE BUILDING
IN OF THE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY. THE EMWF BRINGS
THE RIDGE OR BERMUDA HIGH IN FASTER SHUNTING THE BEST POPS TO THE
WEST WHERE THE GFS IS SLOWER BUILDING THE RIDGE IN ALLOWING A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW TO DEVELOP WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS IN
MORE ON SATURDAY AND HAVE LOWERED POPS TO A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW
CHANCE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 80S AND WARMER ON
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING
FOR A WARMUP INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN AND GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGH THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE HOT
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES. WILL CARRY ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A DIURNAL/AFTN- EVENING WIDELY SCATTERED STORM
SUNDAY (20% POPS) EAST OF I-95. LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO AVG...MAINLY IN THE MID- UPR 60S TO LWR
70S. THE BERMUDA HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT WAST AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY. THIS COULD
BRING SOME MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG VARIOUS
BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON. DIFFICULT TO PLACE THE EXACT DEVELOPMENT.
FOR NOW THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT PHF ORF AND ECG TERMINALS.
THERE IS ALSO A TSTM NEAR SBY WHICH WILL PASS BY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE EVENING.
WILL ALSO HAVE SOME LOWER VSBY TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
THE AIR. EXPECT SOME MVFR VSBY TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY WILL AGAIN HAVE A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.
CONTINUING CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS THROUGH THE
WEEK WHICH COULD CAUSE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY AND COASTAL WATERS
HAVE DECREASED LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10KT OR LESS. SEAS
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY BUILT TO 2 TO 3 FEET...BUT WILL BE
DECREASING BACK TO A SOLID 2 FEET THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC WITH EASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE
BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING.

WITH THE PATTERN SLOW TO CHANGE THIS WEEK EXPECT A STEADY NE TO E
FLOW ACROSS ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THIS WILL
SUPPORT SEAS AROUND 3 TO OCCASIONALLY 4 FEET NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY TO OCEAN CITY. FURTHER SOUTH TO THE NC WATERS SEAS WILL
RUN MAINLY AROUND 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3 FEET.

WINDS CHANGE LATE IN THE WEEK ON FRIDAY BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST. SCA CRITERIA WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE BAY AND
COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE BAY TO OCEAN CITY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RIC AND ORF HAD RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS SUNDAY. SEE RER'S FOR THESE
AND THE RECORD HIGH MAXIMUMS OVER THE WEEKEND AT RIC ORF SBY AND
ECG.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...JAB
MARINE...JAO
CLIMATE...AKQ

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