Winter Storm Warning 5, NWS Juneau, AK

740 
WWAK47 PAJK 070735
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1035 PM AKST FRI JAN 6 2012

AKZ018-019-071400-
/X.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0005.120107T1400Z-120108T0100Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...HAINES
1035 PM AKST FRI JAN 6 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM AKST
SATURDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM AKST
SATURDAY. 

* LOCATION...ABOVE 600 FEET.

* SNOW...6 TO 10 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
  BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL THEN
  START TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WILL LOWER VISIBILITY AND MAKE DRIVING 
  DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKST SATURDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

195 
WWAK47 PAJK 071313
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
413 AM AKST SAT JAN 7 2012

AKZ018-019-072100-
/X.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0005.120107T1400Z-120108T0100Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...HAINES
413 AM AKST SAT JAN 7 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* LOCATION...ABOVE 600 FEET.

* SNOW...6 TO 10 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES EARLY IN THE
  AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL THEN START TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WILL LOWER VISIBILITY AND MAKE DRIVING 
  DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON AKST SATURDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

765 
WWAK47 PAJK 071858
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
958 AM AKST SAT JAN 7 2012

AKZ018-019-080100-
/X.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-120108T0100Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...HAINES
958 AM AKST SAT JAN 7 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* LOCATION...ABOVE 600 FEET.

* SNOW...STORM TOTAL 10 TO 14 INCHES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
  SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WILL LOWER VISIBILITY AND MAKE DRIVING 
  DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

395 
WWAK47 PAJK 080039
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
339 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2012

AKZ018-019-080145-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-120108T0100Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...HAINES
339 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON.

HEAVY SNOW TAPERED OFF AND THE EMBEDDED WARMER AIR ALONG THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL CHANGE SNOW OVER TO RAIN ACROSS THE AREAS
THIS EVENING.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
605 AM AKST FRI JAN 6 2012

.SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF IS CAUSING OVERCAST HIGH
CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FALLING OUT OF IT.
NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THESE SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER NE. THE LOW CENTER WILL WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES AND WILL FORM INTO A TROUGH WITH A FRONT ALONG IT
EXTENDING FROM ANOTHER LOW CENTER TO THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA CAUSING THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE TO MOVE INTO THE JUNEAU AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SOUTHWARD. QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THIS ARE STILL QUESTIONABLE AND HAVE GONE WITH 1 TO
3 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS THAT WILL SEE
SNOW. SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED THROUGH THE EVENING ONCE THE
SYSTEM PASSES...AND THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
BEHIND IT. THESE BREAKS HOWEVER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT
LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF WITH THE ASSOC HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

 BOTH SYSTEMS WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE OUTSIDE WATERS
AND STRONG WINDS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO
40 MPH THROUGH THIS MORNING ALONG THE CENTRAL COASTLINE.

 ONE TO THREE INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THIS
MORNING IN THE YAKUTAT AREA WITH GREATEST AMOUNTS TO THE WEST
SIDE OF YAKUTAT BAY. THIS WILL BRING THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON TO 4 TO 8 INCHES. THE WINTER STORM
WARNING IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 9AM. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE AFTER THIS TIME HOWEVER.

 UPDATED THE GOING FORECAST WITH THE MAINLY THE NAM AS IT
INITIALIZED WELL. TWEAKED THE WINDS THROUGH THE INSIDE WATERS
WITH THE HI-RES ARW MESOSCALE MODEL...THIS HELPED TO ADJUST THE
WIND DIRECTION TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND INCREASE THE
SPEEDS IN THE MORE PRONE LOCATIONS. ONLY PLACE WHERE THE WINDS
WILL NOT HAVE A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING IS THE
HAINES/SKAGWAY AREA AREA WHERE THERE IS A WEAK RIDGE CAUSING A
NORTH DIRECTION AND LIGHT WINDS IN LYNN CANAL UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHIFTS BACK SOUTH.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...FOR SAT A 965 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION BY SUNDAY,
WEAKENING TO 972 MB. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AK GULF AND OVER THE AK PANHANDLE SAT INTO SUN. WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL CONNECTION 6 HOUR QPF VALUES WILL
NEAR HALF AN INCH FOR SATURDAY. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL NEAR THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. ISSUE RIGHT
NOW IS THE MORNING SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN REGIONS. THE OVERNIGHT
AIR MASS WHILE COLD WILL BE JUST NEAR FREEZING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HAINES. MAXIMUM OMEGA VALUES
OCCUR WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING SO ONLY EXPECTING A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER HAINES TEMPS MAY STILL
BE LOW ENOUGH FOR HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATION. OUTSIDE WATER WINDS
WILL REACH GALE FORCE WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSAGE WITH STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.

 WARM AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP PRECIP RAIN THROUGH SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES EAST OVER THE REGION
SUN EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS
THROUGH TUESDAY. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED
THROUGH TUESDAY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EVEN WITH THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AK GULF AND MOVE EAST OVER THE
PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST.
SOME DIFFERENCE WITH MODEL STRENGTH OF THE LOW BUT SIMILAR TRACKS
MOVING THE LOW NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION
BY WED. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN A BIT QUICKER THAN THE LOW THIS SAT
AND FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS ALSO LOOKING A BIT WEAKER.
WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE MAY SEE MORE SNOW WITH THIS FRONT BUT
WARM AIR BEHIND WILL HAVE PRECIP BECOME A RAIN SNOW MIX.

 PATTERN SHIFT IN STORE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN AK WITH
DEEP TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE AK GULF AND EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS PATTERN IS MORE TYPICAL OF A LA NINA WINTER AND
COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE.

 MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN FOR THE START OF THE LONG
TERM. DIFFERENCES WERE FAIRLY MINOR WITH THE NAM BECOMING MORE OF
AN OUTLIER WITH A MORE EASTERLY TROUGH PROGRESSION ON SAT. MODELS
BEGIN TO SHOW MORE SPREAD BY TUE WITH THE GFS INDICATING A
STRONGER LOW WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK COMPARED TO THE EC. FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK MODELS STAY IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER THE AK
GULF BUT SHOW LARGE SPREAD WITH LOWS MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA.
UPDATED GRIDS WITH A BLEND OF 00Z EC TO DAY 4 THEN TRANSITIONED
TO A BLEND OF 00Z EC/GFS WITH INHERITED HPC GUIDANCE TO DAY 8.
OVER ALL CHANGES WERE FAIRLY MINOR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ABOVE AVERAGE BUT BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THE MESOSCALE SNOW AMOUNTS FOR SATURDAY.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ022-023.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-031-033-034-036-042-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-012-021-032-035-041-052-053.

&&

HANNON/PRB