Gale Warning 6, NWS Juneau, AK

030 
FZAK67 PAJK 071245
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 7 2012 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-080100-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 7 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE THROUGH SE
ALASKA LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 

$$

PKZ310-080100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 7 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT LATE. STRONGEST WINDS
EASTERN HALF. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W GALE TO 40 KT. STRONGEST WINDS NORTHERN HALF. SEAS
20 FT. 
.MON...W GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING S LATE. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
605 AM AKST FRI JAN 6 2012

.SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF IS CAUSING OVERCAST HIGH
CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FALLING OUT OF IT.
NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THESE SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER NE. THE LOW CENTER WILL WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES AND WILL FORM INTO A TROUGH WITH A FRONT ALONG IT
EXTENDING FROM ANOTHER LOW CENTER TO THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA CAUSING THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE TO MOVE INTO THE JUNEAU AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SOUTHWARD. QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THIS ARE STILL QUESTIONABLE AND HAVE GONE WITH 1 TO
3 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS THAT WILL SEE
SNOW. SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED THROUGH THE EVENING ONCE THE
SYSTEM PASSES...AND THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
BEHIND IT. THESE BREAKS HOWEVER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT
LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF WITH THE ASSOC HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

 BOTH SYSTEMS WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE OUTSIDE WATERS
AND STRONG WINDS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO
40 MPH THROUGH THIS MORNING ALONG THE CENTRAL COASTLINE.

 ONE TO THREE INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THIS
MORNING IN THE YAKUTAT AREA WITH GREATEST AMOUNTS TO THE WEST
SIDE OF YAKUTAT BAY. THIS WILL BRING THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON TO 4 TO 8 INCHES. THE WINTER STORM
WARNING IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 9AM. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE AFTER THIS TIME HOWEVER.

 UPDATED THE GOING FORECAST WITH THE MAINLY THE NAM AS IT
INITIALIZED WELL. TWEAKED THE WINDS THROUGH THE INSIDE WATERS
WITH THE HI-RES ARW MESOSCALE MODEL...THIS HELPED TO ADJUST THE
WIND DIRECTION TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND INCREASE THE
SPEEDS IN THE MORE PRONE LOCATIONS. ONLY PLACE WHERE THE WINDS
WILL NOT HAVE A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING IS THE
HAINES/SKAGWAY AREA AREA WHERE THERE IS A WEAK RIDGE CAUSING A
NORTH DIRECTION AND LIGHT WINDS IN LYNN CANAL UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHIFTS BACK SOUTH.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...FOR SAT A 965 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION BY SUNDAY,
WEAKENING TO 972 MB. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AK GULF AND OVER THE AK PANHANDLE SAT INTO SUN. WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL CONNECTION 6 HOUR QPF VALUES WILL
NEAR HALF AN INCH FOR SATURDAY. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL NEAR THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. ISSUE RIGHT
NOW IS THE MORNING SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN REGIONS. THE OVERNIGHT
AIR MASS WHILE COLD WILL BE JUST NEAR FREEZING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HAINES. MAXIMUM OMEGA VALUES
OCCUR WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING SO ONLY EXPECTING A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER HAINES TEMPS MAY STILL
BE LOW ENOUGH FOR HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATION. OUTSIDE WATER WINDS
WILL REACH GALE FORCE WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSAGE WITH STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.

 WARM AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP PRECIP RAIN THROUGH SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES EAST OVER THE REGION
SUN EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS
THROUGH TUESDAY. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED
THROUGH TUESDAY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EVEN WITH THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AK GULF AND MOVE EAST OVER THE
PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST.
SOME DIFFERENCE WITH MODEL STRENGTH OF THE LOW BUT SIMILAR TRACKS
MOVING THE LOW NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION
BY WED. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN A BIT QUICKER THAN THE LOW THIS SAT
AND FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS ALSO LOOKING A BIT WEAKER.
WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE MAY SEE MORE SNOW WITH THIS FRONT BUT
WARM AIR BEHIND WILL HAVE PRECIP BECOME A RAIN SNOW MIX.

 PATTERN SHIFT IN STORE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN AK WITH
DEEP TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE AK GULF AND EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS PATTERN IS MORE TYPICAL OF A LA NINA WINTER AND
COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE.

 MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN FOR THE START OF THE LONG
TERM. DIFFERENCES WERE FAIRLY MINOR WITH THE NAM BECOMING MORE OF
AN OUTLIER WITH A MORE EASTERLY TROUGH PROGRESSION ON SAT. MODELS
BEGIN TO SHOW MORE SPREAD BY TUE WITH THE GFS INDICATING A
STRONGER LOW WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK COMPARED TO THE EC. FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK MODELS STAY IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER THE AK
GULF BUT SHOW LARGE SPREAD WITH LOWS MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA.
UPDATED GRIDS WITH A BLEND OF 00Z EC TO DAY 4 THEN TRANSITIONED
TO A BLEND OF 00Z EC/GFS WITH INHERITED HPC GUIDANCE TO DAY 8.
OVER ALL CHANGES WERE FAIRLY MINOR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ABOVE AVERAGE BUT BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THE MESOSCALE SNOW AMOUNTS FOR SATURDAY.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ022-023.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-031-033-034-036-042-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-012-021-032-035-041-052-053.

&&

HANNON/PRB