Winter Storm Warning 27, NWS Juneau, AK

389 
WWAK47 PAJK 250427
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
827 PM AKDT SAT MAR 24 2012

AKZ017-250800-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WS.W.0027.000000T0000Z-120325T0800Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...YAKUTAT
827 PM AKDT SAT MAR 24 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT
TONIGHT...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT
TONIGHT. 

* LOCATION...YAKUTAT

* SNOW...AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
  THERE HAS BEEN AT LEAST ONE REPORT OF NEARLY A FOOT OF SNOW AT 7
  PM. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 16 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS AND SNOW WILL INCREASE SNOW 
  LOADS ON ROOFS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

BEZENEK

744 
WWAK47 PAJK 250647
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1047 PM AKDT SAT MAR 24 2012

AKZ017-250800-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WS.W.0027.000000T0000Z-120325T0800Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...YAKUTAT
1047 PM AKDT SAT MAR 24 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. 

THE HEAVY SNOW HAS ENDED IN THE YAKUTAT AREA BUT LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. AT 7 PM A SPOTTER IN YAKUTAT HAD
REPORTED 11.5 INCHES OF SNOW AND EARLIER AT 5 PM THE WEATHER
OFFICE IN YAKUTAT HAD RECEIVED AROUND 9 INCHES OF SNOW. THE
HEAVIER SNOW CONTINUED UNTIL ROUGHLY 9 PM.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$


BEZENEK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
546 AM AKDT SAT MAR 24 2012

.SHORT TERM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT PRODUCED MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA YESTERDAY IS BEING DISPLACED TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY AN APPROACHING FRONT. AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING,
THE BAROCLINIC CLOUD SHIELD HAD COVERED ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE. CLOUD BASES ARE NOT VERY LOW WITH THE
LOWEST AROUND 3000 FT. MARGINAL GALES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
REMAIN IN THE MARINE FORECAST TODAY FOR COASTAL MARINE ZONES 51.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE OUTER COAST. VERY
LITTLE RESPONSE EXPECTED OVER THE EAST-WEST INNER CHANNELS AND
HAVE NO ADVISORIES IN THE MORNING FORECAST. DO HAVE A SOUTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS THIS MORNING
AND SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL, BUT THE
GRADIENT AND CORRESPONDING WINDS EXPECTED TO RELAX LATER TODAY,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND JET SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT CONTINUES TO BE WEAK,
SO DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF QPF IN THE FORECAST NOR HAVE THE POP
FIELD COMING IN OVER THE OUTER COAST VERY FAR. BELIEVE THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE OUTER COAST
NORTH FROM CAPE SPENCER NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS EXTENDING AS FAR
AS HAINES AND SKAGWAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE POPS
EXTENDING SOUTH TO CAPE DECISION ALONG THE OUTER COAST THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. PRECIP TYPE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SNOW, EITHER
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THEN BACK TO
SNOW TONIGHT AS TEMPS FALL FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S BACK DOWN
BELOW FREEZING. SNOW AMOUNTS 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR YAKUTAT TODAY WITH
ANOTHER INCH TONIGHT. POPS TOO LOW TO TRIGGER ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE FORECAST FOR HAINES AND SKAGWAY, BUT GRIDS ARE SHOWING AROUND
1 INCH ALONG THE HAINES HIGHWAY NEAR THE BORDER AND LESSER
AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

 USED NAM AND ECMWF FOR PRESSURE WITH GFS HIGH RESOLUTION NAM
WIND SPEEDS. POP FILE IS A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF. ADJUSTED TEMPS
WITH BIAS CORRECTED MOS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE GULF WILL MOVE
ENE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SUN AND SUN NIGHT. THIS TROF WILL LEAVE
BEHIND A WEAKENING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND A WEAK FRONT OVER
THE ERN GULF THAT WILL BOTH DISSIPATE BY SUN NIGHT. THEN AREA WILL
BE UNDER MOSTLY SE FLOW IN MID-LEVELS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF SYSTEMS IN THIS FLOW BUT IT SHOULD LEAD
TO MILDER TEMPS AND GENERALLY KEEP HIGHEST THREAT FOR PRECIP OVER
THE S ON AVERAGE. USED THE 00Z ECMWF FROM 18Z SUN TO 06Z
TUE...THEN DID BLEND OF NEWEST HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM 12Z
TUE TO 12Z THU...THEN WENT STRAIGHT HPC THEREAFTER.

 AS SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES ONSHORE...THE THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL
INCREASE OVER THE INNER CHANNELS BUT STILL BE LIMITED OVER THE
NRN HALF DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW AND STRONGER DYNAMIC SUPPORT
REMAINING OVER THE S. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES E OF THE AREA AND
THE FRONT OVER THE ERN GULF DISSIPATES...THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL
RAPIDLY DIMINISH OVER THE PANHANDLE SUN NIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING
WILL HELP WITH THE DRYING TREND CONTINUING INTO MON...WITH MOSTLY
HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE
WARMING SOMEWHAT FROM SUN TO MON AS 850 TEMPS WARM ABOUT 4C ON
AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA ON INCREASING SE FLOW ALOFT AND ELY FLOW
IN LOWER LEVELS. SOME AREAS COULD BREAK 50 DEGREES DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH SUNSHINE IS AROUND.

 LATER ON...WILL HAVE MULTIPLE SYSTEMS COMING IN FROM THE S AND
SE. LOOKS LIKE FIRST ONE WILL BE A WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT
MOVING N INTO THE AREA TUE. DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND DRY OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL HELP WEAKEN THIS FRONT FAIRLY QUICKLY AS IT MOVES INTO
THE AREA...SO MUCH OF THE PRECIP THREAT WILL BE OVER THE S TUE.
AFTER THAT LOOKS LIKE WEAKENING LOWS/FRONTS/TROFS WILL MOVE N AND
NW ACROSS THE ERN GULF WED INTO FRI...KEEPING THREAT FOR PRECIP
GOING ESPECIALLY SRN AREA...BUT IT WILL ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY MILD
WITH MAX TEMPS MOST AREAS GETTING WELL INTO THE 40S AND MIN TEMPS
GENERALLY REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING. MAY SEE SOME COOLER AIR MOVE
IN FROM THE SW FRI OR SAT.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ042-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041.

&&

FRITSCH/RWT