Gale Warning 196, NWS Juneau, AK

795 
FZAK52 PAJK 242325
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 24 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-251400-
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 24 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND
WEAKEN OVER THE GULF TOMORROW. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE ALONG THE OUTER COAST ON SUNDAY.  

$$

PKZ041-251400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 24 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE LATE EVENING. SEAS 6
FT BUILDING TO 9 FT LATE. W SWELL LATE.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. W
SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-251400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 24 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING...DIMINISHING
TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW LATE.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. W
SWELL. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. RAIN LATE. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-251400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 24 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
SNOW IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-251400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 24 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT LATE. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-251400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 24 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT LATE. SNOW
IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT LATE. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
256 PM AKDT FRI MAR 23 2012

.SHORT TERM...WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE RATHER QUIET OVER THE
PANHANDLE TODAY. MOST PLACES FROM FREDRICK SOUND NORTHWARD ARE
ENJOYING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. SOUTH OF
FREDRICK SOUND, THE LAST GASP OF THE LOW IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
IS BRINGING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO MOST OF THAT AREA. THE REMAINS
OF THE SECONDARY LOW ARE JUST WEST OF DIXON ENTRANCE WITH ITS
DIEING DISORGANIZED FRONTAL BAND SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. THE SHOWERS ALONG THIS FRONT ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A WEAK JET STREAK ALOFT. SOME OF THE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN HEAVIER WITH KETCHIKAN DROPPING TO 1/2 MILE VISIBILITY
EARLIER THIS MORNING AND SOME OF OUR SPOTTERS AROUND KETCHIKAN
HAVE REPORTED UP TO 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THESE SHOWERS.

INTO TONIGHT, THE SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL DIMINISH
AS THE JET STREAK GETS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST BY THE PROGRESSIVE
RIDGE AND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW WEAKENS AWAY. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS
WILL BE SNOW AS 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES ARE STILL BELOW 1290 ALL
THE WAY DOWN THERE. CLOUDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH AS WELL AND MOST OF
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SHOULD BE AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW.

MEANWHILE THE NICE SUNNY WEATHER THAT THE NORTH HAS BEEN ENJOYING
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS IS COMING TO AN END. A FRONT THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL BE HEADING EAST ACROSS THE
GULF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW SPREADING PRECIP, WIND, AND CLOUDS AS IT
COMES. A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL BE FORMING NEAR KODIAK ISLAND THIS
EVENING AND THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS THE GULF. BY THE TIME IT GETS
TO THE CENTRAL GULF THE LOW AND FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT GETS
CUT OFF FROM THE JET STREAK SUPPORTING IT. OUT IN THE GULF, I AM
EXPECTING MAINLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO 30 KT PARTICULARLY IN THE
NORTHERN GULF WHERE A BARRIER JET WILL BE SETTING UP. THE HIGHER
WINDS ALONG THE FRONT WILL NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO THE PANHANDLE BY
SAT AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF YAKUTAT WHERE SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP.

AS FOR PRECIP, YAKUTAT WILL BE ON THE RECEIVING END OF SNOW ALL
DAY SAT AS ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ALOFT REMAIN COLD. THERE IS NOT
A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER SO I AM
EXPECTING BELOW ADVISORY SNOW FALL AMOUNTS. FARTHER EAST, I HAVE
LIKELY AND CHANCE POPS APPEARING NORTH OF FREDRIC SOUND BY SAT
AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME POSSIBLE OVERRUNNING IN THE INNER CHANNELS.
MOST PLACES WILL BE SNOW FOR PRECIP TYPE BUT SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN
FOR SAT AFTERNOON IN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN FAIR AGREEMENT TODAY WITH ONLY SOME
SMALL DIFFERENCES NOTED. NAM WAS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH WITH LOW
TRACK ACROSS THE GULF BUT OVERALL WAS NOT TOO MUCH DIFFERENT THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. DECIDED TO GO WITH A NAM/EC BLEND FOR FORECAST
UPDATES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...A 1002 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF DRIFTS EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGINS TO BACKTRACK TO THE WEST AND
DISSIPATE SUNDAY AS A MUCH STRONGER 988 MB LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE
GULF AND ENTRAINS FIRST SYSTEM. THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN GULF SATURDAY AND WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES OVER SOUTHEAST
ALASKA SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ROTATES
NORTHWARD TO THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY MONDAY MORNING AND
WEAKENS AS IT REACHES THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A
MEAN NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN
PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF NEXT WEEK AND WILL DUMBBELL A SERIES OF
WEAKENING LOWS INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND FRONTS THROUGH SOUTHEAST
ALASKA.

THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM ALTHOUGH
MODELS SHOWING BETTER LIFT THROUGH OVERRUNNING SAT. PRECIP FAVORING
THE NW HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WITH MOST PRECIP PAYA AND ALONG
COAST. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS FOR SNOW NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS BUT SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH DIURNAL WARMING COASTAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS TO HAVE RA OR MIXED RA/SN. EASTERLY WINDS START
OFF AT MAX SMCR ACROSS NE GULF BUT WEAKEN WITH TIMES AS LOW
BACKTRACKS. UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER A DEVELOPING LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW AT SURFACE.

EXPECT TO SEE MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK WITH SERIES OF
WEAKENING FRONTS. PRECIP WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH BUT
ONLY GO TO CHANCE FOR NORTHERN. SE WINDS SHOULD BE AT SMCR LEVELS
AROUND LOW IN SE GULF MON-WED BUT WILL MAINTAIN WEAK NE WIND FOR
INNER CHANNELS.

HAVE GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE POSITIONAL
DIFFERENCE SHOWS UP ON HOW FAR E SOUTHERN GULF LOWS TRACK. THIS
COMPROMISE WAS HANDLED WELL WITH PREVIOUS/HPC GRIDS SO OPTED TO
MAKE NO CHANGES AFTER DAY 4. USED NAM TO REFRESH EARLIER PERIODS
WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ043-051-052.

&&

EAL/MM