Winter Storm Warning 11, NWS Juneau, AK

398 
WWAK47 PAJK 240053
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
353 PM AKST MON JAN 23 2012

AKZ017-240200-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WS.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120124T0100Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...YAKUTAT
353 PM AKST MON JAN 23 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ029-241400-
/X.NEW.PAJK.WS.W.0012.120124T1200Z-120125T0100Z/
MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HYDER
353 PM AKST MON JAN 23 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM AKST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW NEAR HYDER...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 4
PM AKST TUESDAY.

* SNOW...UP TO 2 INCHES LATE TONIGHT AND ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION UP
  TO 10 INCHES TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 10 PM AKST TONIGHT OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ019-241400-
/X.NEW.PAJK.WS.W.0012.120125T0100Z-120125T1400Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HAINES
353 PM AKST MON JAN 23 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO
5 AM AKST WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATION...HAINES AND ALONG THE HAINES HIGHWAY.

* SNOW...4 TO 8 INCHES. HIGHEST NEAR THE BORDER.

* TIMING...LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 10 PM AKST TONIGHT OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ020-021-024-025-241400-
/X.NEW.PAJK.WW.Y.0009.120125T0100Z-120125T1400Z/
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GUSTAVUS...HOONAH...ANGOON...JUNEAU
353 PM AKST MON JAN 23 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM
AKST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY
TO 5 AM AKST WEDNESDAY.

* SNOW...2 TO 6 INCHES.

* TIMING...LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ADVISORY MEANS THAT A POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS EVENT IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 10 PM AKST TONIGHT OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
539 AM AKST MON JAN 23 2012

.SHORT TERM...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WESTERN GULF BUT WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERAL TROFS WILL MOVE
AROUND THE LOW INTO THE ERN GULF AND SE AK THRU THIS EVENING. A
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NE PAC AND MOVE NE TO THE
FAR SE GULF BY LATE TONIGHT. USED THE 00Z ECMWF DUE TO ITS BETTER
HANDLING OF THE LOW TONIGHT BASED ON SATELLITE DATA.

 MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE SNOWFALL AND WINDS. THRU
TODAY...PRECIP WILL BE SHOWERY AND BE MOST ORGANIZED ALONG THE
TROFS THAT MOVE THRU THE AREA. ONE TROF IS JUST OFFSHORE AND WILL
MOVE ONSHORE THIS MORNING. ANOTHER TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THINK MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
SEE ABOUT 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY...EXCEPT WHERE ANY RAIN MIXES
IN OVER THE S. THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED AREAS THAT GET MORE SNOW
BUT IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THIS WOULD HAPPEN
RIGHT NOW. THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A STEADIER
PRECIP TONIGHT FROM THE S IN A DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
AHEAD OF THE LOW MOVING INTO THE SE GULF. AGAIN...PROBABLY A
1-2 INCH SNOWFALL FOR MOST PLACES TONIGHT...EXCEPT OVER THE S
WHERE PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE RAIN WITH TIME TONIGHT. FOR
SIMPLICITY...USED PERIODS OF SNOW/RAIN FOR MOST PLACES TO HANDLE
THE TRANSITION RATHER THAN SHOWERS BECOMING RAIN/SNOW. EXCEPTION
IS PAYA WHERE PRECIP WILL BE MORE CLEARLY CONVECTIVE TONIGHT.

 AS FOR WINDS...THE TROFS ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD LOW HAVE SOME
SCA LEVEL WINDS WITH THEM. THINK STRONGEST WINDS TODAY WILL BE
ALONG THE N GULF NEAR SHORE AREA W YAKUTAT BAY...WHERE E WINDS
AROUND 30 KT ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE SRN GULF
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES IN...WITH GALES EXPECTED OVER THE SERN
GULF AND PARTS OF THE SRN INNER CHANNELS...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
SCA LEVEL WINDS OVER THE E-CENTRAL GULF AND MOST OF THE REMAINING
INNER CHANNELS. PUBLIC ZONE 27 MAY GET TO STRONG WIND LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...MODELS AGREEMENT IS IMPROVING FOR THE TUES INTO WED
SYSTEM. THE EC AND UK HAVE STUCK TO THEIR GUNS AND STAYED WITH A
TRIPLE LOW STRUCTURE WITH A BIT OF STRENGTHEN COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE BEEN CHANGING THEIR TUNE IN THEIR
MOST RECENT RUNS AND BEEN SHIFTING MORE TOWARD THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION. THIS IS ALREADY BECOMING PLAUSIBLE WITH CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING THE SYSTEM SPREADING OUT IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC. IN THIS SCENARIO THE FIRST OF TWO LOWS WILL HEAD NE TO
JUST WEST OF DIXON ENTRANCE AND THEN DASH NW ALONG THE OUTER
COAST ON TUES. THIS FIRST LOW WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS THE MAIN MOISTURE STREAM THAT IS FEEDING
IT WILL DETACH FROM IT EARLY TUES AND HEAD TOWARD THE PACIFIC NW.
THERE WILL BE DECENT WINDS WITH IT HOWEVER. I EXPECT STRONG WIND
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TUES AND
GALES AT LEAST FOR THE SE GULF AND CLARENCE STRAIT.

 THE SECOND LOW WILL SHOW UP RIGHT BEHIND THE FIRST AND SLAMS
INTO THE PANHANDLE EARLY WED. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE
MODELS ON WHERE THIS LAST LOW WILL HEAD WITH THE EC HAVING IT HIT
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND THE GFS BRINGING IT ALL THE WAY UP TO
YAKUTAT. IN EITHER CASE MORE WIND IS IN THE WORKS FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND MORE PRECIP AS THIS LOW WILL RETAIN MORE
OF ITS ORIGINAL MOISTURE. ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD STILL BE TRAPPED
IN THE INNER CHANNELS THAT AT LEAST AREAS FROM ICE STRAIT
NORTHWARD MAY BE IN FOR AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVELS SNOW TUE NIGHT
AND WED.

 BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AT LEAST THREE MORE WEAK TROUGHS WILL BE
ROTATING AROUND THE WEAK PERSISTENT LOW IN THE NW GULF AND INTO
THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THURS NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS,
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW, TO THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL POLAR VORTEX
OVER THE NW GULF LIFTS NORTH BY THIS POINT AND GENERAL SW FLOW
TAKES ITS PLACE BY LATE WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS A ACTIVE FRONT APPROACHES THE PANHANDLE
FOR FRI NIGHT WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM SHOWING UP BEHIND IT FOR SUN.

 MODEL AGREEMENT IS RATHER GOOD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOST
FEATURES GENERALLY REPRESENTED REASONABLY WELL. DECIDE TO GO WITH
THE EC FOR MID RANGE UPDATES BUT DID DECIDED ON A MIDDLE-OF-THE-
ROAD APPROACH FOR THE SECOND LOW ON TUES NIGHT WITH A TRACK MORE
INTO THE ELFIN COVE/GLACIER BAY AREA. AFTER THURS USED MORE HPC
DATA BUT DID MIX IN SOME EC AND GFS AS EXTENDED RANGE AGREEMENT
IS DECENT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ035-036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031-033-034-043-051-
     052.

&&

RWT/EAL