Gale Warning 81, NWS Juneau, AK

678 
FZAK51 PAJK 232041 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1141 AM AKST MON JAN 23 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-240100-
1141 AM AKST MON JAN 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN GULF
THROUGH MON NIGHT. TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH MON EVENING. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NE TO THE SE GULF BY EARLY TUE
MORNING...THEN MOVE NW TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY LATE TUE
AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ011-240100-
GLACIER BAY-
1141 AM AKST MON JAN 23 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-240100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1141 AM AKST MON JAN 23 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT LATE. SNOW.
.TUE...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-240100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1141 AM AKST MON JAN 23 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT LATE. SNOW.
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-240100-
ICY STRAIT-
1141 AM AKST MON JAN 23 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE. SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-240100-
CROSS SOUND-
1141 AM AKST MON JAN 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-240100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
1141 AM AKST MON JAN 23 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT
OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-240100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1141 AM AKST MON JAN 23 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT.
SNOW...MIXED WITH RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-240100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1141 AM AKST MON JAN 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT
10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 15 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-240100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
1141 AM AKST MON JAN 23 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES...GUSTS TO 55 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-240100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
1141 AM AKST MON JAN 23 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT LATE. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-240100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
1141 AM AKST MON JAN 23 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT LATE. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 7 FT BUILDING
TO 10 FT LATE. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
255 PM AKST SUN JAN 22 2012

.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING NNE THROUGH HECATE STRAIT. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NNE BUT DRIFT INTO BC THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WITH SHOWERS
ROTATING AROUND THE GULF AND OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER OVER THE INNER CHANNELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AS THE STEERING FLOW BACKS AROUND DRIFT THE SHOWERS ALONG THE
COASTLINE AND ALONG WITH INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AS THE LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN AREAS LIFTS NORTH.

 THERE IS SOME STRONGER SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS ATTM BUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LIFTS NORTH THE
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO
3 INCHES BUT WITH PAYA IN A BETTER TRAJECTORY FOR THE SHOWERS
THEY COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN AREAS
WILL SEE RAIN OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS AS THEY FEEL THE
EFFECTS OF THE LOW MOVING THROUGH HECATE STRAIT. THE WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA ARE MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH BUT THEY WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE NORTH THIS EVENING TO BE AROUND 15 KT LATE TONIGHT. THE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE THE WINDS COME UP TO 20 KT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

 A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT LOW AND
DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN GULF LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH MON. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE EASTERLY WINDS IN E/W CHANNELS WITH SMALL CRAFT
WINDS NEAR CROSS SOUND AND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS MIXING WITH SNOW AND RAIN AT TIMES WITH THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS SEEING FROZEN PRECIP. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
NOT BE THAT MUCH BUT THE INNER CHANNELS COULD SEE 1-3 INCHES TO A
BIT MORE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WITH 2-4 THROUGH THE DAY.

 THERE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE AND USED A BLEND OF
THE 12Z GFS/EC FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LOOKING FOR
STORMY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE MOST OF THIS WEEK ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE OVERNIGHT RUN OF ECMWF HAS
SHOWN A BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS FOR THE STORM TRACKS
ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF STILL KEEPS A STRONGER INTENSITY AT THIS TIME.
BLENDED THE FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. WITH A MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND LOW IN THE GULF...A SERIES
OF SURFACE LOWS AND TROUGHS WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND
THE PANHANDLE. ONE OF THE STRONGER STORM IS EXPECTED TO ONSET FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE ALONG WITH A STRONG WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS.

 MODELS STAY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A WEAKENING
LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND A HIGH PRESSURE AREA FAR SOUTH
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THEN NOTICEABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE
GROWING WITH A STORM MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.
THE ECMWF STILL HOLDS A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUT
THIS TREND BECOMES MORE IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS.
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD...USED THE HPC OUTPUTS. A SERIES OF WEAKER
LOWS AND TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AS A LOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WEAKENS.
WITH A LOW PREDICTABILITY...ANOTHER STORM WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYNOPTIC
SETUP WILL BRING ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SCENARIO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ017>019.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-035-036-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042.

&&

ABJ/AHN