Wind Chill Advisory 1, NWS Juneau, AK

649 
WWAK47 PAJK 150754
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1054 PM AKST SAT JAN 14 2012

AKZ018-151600-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-120115T1400Z/
/X.NEW.PAJK.WW.Y.0007.120115T0800Z-120117T1400Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
1054 PM AKST SAT JAN 14 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST TUESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WIND CHILL...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM
AKST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* WIND...NORTH TO NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...
  STRONGEST ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY.

* BLOWING SNOW...VISIBILITY REDUCED TO 1 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES 
  IN BLOWING SNOW MAINLY NEAR WHITE PASS. 

* WIND CHILL...AS LOW AS 45 BELOW ZERO NEAR WHITE PASS.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST WIND CHILLS WILL BE LATE 
  SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR TO EXPOSED FLESH IN 10 MINUTES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS BE SURE TO COVER ALL EXPOSED SKIN TO REDUCE
RISK OF FROSTBITE.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKST SUNDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&


$$

AKZ019-151600-
/X.CON.PAJK.WC.Y.0001.120115T0900Z-120117T1400Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HAINES
1054 PM AKST SAT JAN 14 2012

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST
TUESDAY...

* WIND CHILL VALUES...30 TO 35 BELOW ZERO WITH LOWEST VALUES 
  NEAR THE BORDER. 

* WIND...NORTHWEST WIND 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH 
  SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 
  MPH BY TUESDAY. 

* TIMING...WIND CHILLS WILL RISE DURING THE DAY WITH INCREASING 
  TEMPERATURES THEN DROP OVERNIGHT. 

* IMPACTS...FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR TO EXPOSED FLESH IN 10 TO 30
  MINUTES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ADVISORY MEANS DANGEROUS WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

EXPOSED SKIN IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BECOME FROSTBITTEN IN
30 MINUTES.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKST SUNDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.


&&

$$

691 
WWAK47 PAJK 151343
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
443 AM AKST SUN JAN 15 2012

AKZ018-152100-
/X.CON.PAJK.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-120117T1400Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
443 AM AKST SUN JAN 15 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST
TUESDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST
TUESDAY. 

* WIND...NORTH TO NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH... 
  STRONGEST ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY. 

* BLOWING SNOW...VISIBILITY REDUCED TO 1 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES 
  IN BLOWING SNOW MAINLY NEAR WHITE PASS. 

* WIND CHILL...AS LOW AS 45 BELOW ZERO NEAR WHITE PASS.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST WIND CHILLS WILL BE EARLY
  SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR TO EXPOSED FLESH IN 10 MINUTES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS BE SURE TO COVER ALL EXPOSED SKIN TO REDUCE
RISK OF FROSTBITE.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON AKST SUNDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ019-152100-
/X.CON.PAJK.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120117T1400Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HAINES
443 AM AKST SUN JAN 15 2012

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST
TUESDAY...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST TUESDAY. 

* WIND CHILL VALUES...30 TO 35 BELOW ZERO WITH LOWEST VALUES 
  NEAR THE BORDER. 

* WIND...NORTHWEST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40
  MPH...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR NEAR LYNN CANAL THROUGH
  SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD TOWARDS THE BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING...WIND CHILLS WILL RISE DURING THE DAY WITH INCREASING 
  TEMPERATURES THEN DROP OVERNIGHT. 

* IMPACTS...FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR TO EXPOSED FLESH IN 10 TO 30 
  MINUTES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ADVISORY MEANS DANGEROUS WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

EXPOSED SKIN IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BECOME FROSTBITTEN IN
30 MINUTES.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON AKST SUNDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

902 
WWAK47 PAJK 152027
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1127 AM AKST SUN JAN 15 2012

AKZ019-152130-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120117T1400Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HAINES
1127 AM AKST SUN JAN 15 2012

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. 


$$

AKZ018-160930-
/X.CON.PAJK.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-120117T1400Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
1127 AM AKST SUN JAN 15 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST
TUESDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST
TUESDAY. 

* WIND...NORTH TO NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH... 
  STRONGEST ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY. 

* BLOWING SNOW...VISIBILITY REDUCED TO 1 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES 
  IN BLOWING SNOW MAINLY NEAR WHITE PASS. 

* WIND CHILL...AS LOW AS 45 BELOW ZERO NEAR WHITE PASS.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST WIND CHILLS WILL BE EARLY 
  SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY NIGHT. 

* IMPACTS...FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR TO EXPOSED FLESH IN 10 MINUTES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS BE SURE TO COVER ALL EXPOSED SKIN TO REDUCE
RISK OF FROSTBITE.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 6 PM AKST SUNDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
303 PM AKST SAT JAN 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...ARCTIC AIR MASS HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION AS
PLANNED. HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT TO 1042MB OVER THE WHITEHORSE
AREA TODAY AND AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AND SERN GULF REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A PRESSURE OF
1013MB IN ANNETTE. THIS VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS CAUSING
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AREA WIDE. WIND SHELTERED AREAS ARE ONLY
SEEING AT MOST 10MPH WINDS WHILE AREAS OPEN TO THE NORTH OR WHERE
MOUNTAIN PASSES ARE HAVE WINDS GUSTING TO 60MPH...INCLUDING
ELDRED ROCK WHICH HAS SEEN STORM FORCE WINDS OF 50KT GUSTING TO
70KT ALL DAY.

 TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH ALONG WITH RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE WINDIER LOCATIONS OF HAINES
AND SKAGWAY WILL SEE WIND CHILLS FALLING OVERNIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR HAINES STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO 35F BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE BORDER. WIND
CHILLS UP TO 50F BELOW ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR WHITE PASS
OVERNIGHT AND A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THAT AS
WELL AS THE WIND GUSTS TO 60MPH. WIND SHELTERED AREAS WILL SEE
THE COLDEST AMBIENT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...SUCH AS THE MENDENHALL
VALLEY. DOWNTOWN JUNEAU HOWEVER WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST. BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS LOOK TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TAKU
WIND EVENT. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THIS STARTING AT
NOON TOMORROW AND EXTENDING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

 THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE PATTER THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SO EXPECTING CURRENT CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY REMAIN
THROUGH SUNDAY. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST
SUCH AS TWEAKING WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH SOME OF THE INSIDE
WATERS AND KEEPING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...DRY, CLEAR, COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWS BELOW ZERO TO THE NORTH. SEEING A SLIGHT
WARM UP NEAR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BEGIN
TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST. HOWEVER WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE MAY SEE
A BIT MORE OF A DELAY SO LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY.

 STRONG NORTHERLY, OUTFLOW AND GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY MID WEEK AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. SETUP FOR TAKU EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING IS FAVORABLE WITH INVERSION IN PLACE AND GOOD
CROSS BARRIER FLOW. CRITICAL LEVEL WAS NOT LOOKING AS GOOD WITH
DIRECTION SHEAR BUT WAS SHOWING SPEED SHEAR AT 400 MB.

 THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BRING WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW
NEGATIVE 30 DEGREES FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS SO PRECAUTION SHOULD
BE TAKEN. THE MAX GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS WITH COLD TEMPS WILL PRODUCE FREEZING SPRAY ACROSS THE
INNER CHANNELS...YAKUTAT BAY AND OUTSIDE WATERS.

 BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF,
NORTHERN PACIFIC AND BERING SEA WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEING TO
UNDERCUT THE HIGH ALONG THE NORTHERN PACIFIC TRACKING EASTWARD
TOWARD HAIDA GWAII BY THE END OF WEEK. STILL SOME QUESTIONS
REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THESE SYSTEM BUT AS OF NOW
ANY IMPACT WILL BE JUST OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

 MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM AND
WITH THE STABLE PATTERN IN PLACE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH VARIATION
THROUGH MID WEEK. LEANED TOWARD THE 00Z EC BUT CHANGES THROUGH
12Z WED WERE MINOR. AS MODEL SPREAD INCREASES THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH SOME FAIR RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES. NEITHER THE
OPERATIONAL EC OR GFS APPEARED MUCH BETTER AT THIS TIME SO
DECIDED TO KEEP WITH THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTION FROM HPC. THE NEW HPC
WAS VERY CLOSE TO INHERITED GRIDS UNTIL SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO
DAY 7. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID WEEK BUT
DOES BEGIN TO LOWER BY NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO MODEL SPREAD.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM 3 AM AKST SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ020.
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM AKST TUESDAY
     FOR AKZ019.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011-012-053.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ013.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ013-031.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012-013.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-021-022-031>034-043-051-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ035-036-041-042-052.

&&

HANNON/PRB