Gale Warning 59, NWS Juneau, AK

674 
FZAK51 PAJK 151322
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 15 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-160100-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 15 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS AND AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON. 

$$

PKZ011-160100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 15 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE LATE MORNING.
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 8 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-160100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 15 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-160100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 15 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-160100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 15 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON...STRONGEST WINDS NEAR ENTRANCE TO GLACIER BAY. SEAS 7
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING...STRONGEST
WINDS NEAR ENTRANCE TO GLACIER BAY. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-160100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 15 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-160100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 15 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS
8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE LATE EVENING. GUSTS TO
65 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS
8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-160100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 15 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-160100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 15 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY LATE. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-160100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 15 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-160100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 15 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-160100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 15 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT LATE. FREEZING SPRAY LATE. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
303 PM AKST SAT JAN 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...ARCTIC AIR MASS HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION AS
PLANNED. HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT TO 1042MB OVER THE WHITEHORSE
AREA TODAY AND AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AND SERN GULF REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A PRESSURE OF
1013MB IN ANNETTE. THIS VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS CAUSING
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AREA WIDE. WIND SHELTERED AREAS ARE ONLY
SEEING AT MOST 10MPH WINDS WHILE AREAS OPEN TO THE NORTH OR WHERE
MOUNTAIN PASSES ARE HAVE WINDS GUSTING TO 60MPH...INCLUDING
ELDRED ROCK WHICH HAS SEEN STORM FORCE WINDS OF 50KT GUSTING TO
70KT ALL DAY.

 TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH ALONG WITH RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE WINDIER LOCATIONS OF HAINES
AND SKAGWAY WILL SEE WIND CHILLS FALLING OVERNIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR HAINES STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO 35F BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE BORDER. WIND
CHILLS UP TO 50F BELOW ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR WHITE PASS
OVERNIGHT AND A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THAT AS
WELL AS THE WIND GUSTS TO 60MPH. WIND SHELTERED AREAS WILL SEE
THE COLDEST AMBIENT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...SUCH AS THE MENDENHALL
VALLEY. DOWNTOWN JUNEAU HOWEVER WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST. BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS LOOK TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TAKU
WIND EVENT. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THIS STARTING AT
NOON TOMORROW AND EXTENDING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

 THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE PATTER THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SO EXPECTING CURRENT CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY REMAIN
THROUGH SUNDAY. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST
SUCH AS TWEAKING WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH SOME OF THE INSIDE
WATERS AND KEEPING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...DRY, CLEAR, COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWS BELOW ZERO TO THE NORTH. SEEING A SLIGHT
WARM UP NEAR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BEGIN
TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST. HOWEVER WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE MAY SEE
A BIT MORE OF A DELAY SO LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY.

 STRONG NORTHERLY, OUTFLOW AND GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY MID WEEK AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. SETUP FOR TAKU EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING IS FAVORABLE WITH INVERSION IN PLACE AND GOOD
CROSS BARRIER FLOW. CRITICAL LEVEL WAS NOT LOOKING AS GOOD WITH
DIRECTION SHEAR BUT WAS SHOWING SPEED SHEAR AT 400 MB.

 THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BRING WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW
NEGATIVE 30 DEGREES FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS SO PRECAUTION SHOULD
BE TAKEN. THE MAX GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS WITH COLD TEMPS WILL PRODUCE FREEZING SPRAY ACROSS THE
INNER CHANNELS...YAKUTAT BAY AND OUTSIDE WATERS.

 BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF,
NORTHERN PACIFIC AND BERING SEA WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEING TO
UNDERCUT THE HIGH ALONG THE NORTHERN PACIFIC TRACKING EASTWARD
TOWARD HAIDA GWAII BY THE END OF WEEK. STILL SOME QUESTIONS
REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THESE SYSTEM BUT AS OF NOW
ANY IMPACT WILL BE JUST OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

 MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM AND
WITH THE STABLE PATTERN IN PLACE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH VARIATION
THROUGH MID WEEK. LEANED TOWARD THE 00Z EC BUT CHANGES THROUGH
12Z WED WERE MINOR. AS MODEL SPREAD INCREASES THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH SOME FAIR RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES. NEITHER THE
OPERATIONAL EC OR GFS APPEARED MUCH BETTER AT THIS TIME SO
DECIDED TO KEEP WITH THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTION FROM HPC. THE NEW HPC
WAS VERY CLOSE TO INHERITED GRIDS UNTIL SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO
DAY 7. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID WEEK BUT
DOES BEGIN TO LOWER BY NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO MODEL SPREAD.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM 3 AM AKST SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ020.
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM AKST TUESDAY
     FOR AKZ019.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011-012-053.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ013.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ013-031.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012-013.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-021-022-031>034-043-051-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ035-036-041-042-052.

&&

HANNON/PRB