Storm Warning 58, NWS Juneau, AK

311 
FZAK52 PAJK 231226
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 23 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-240100-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 23 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAKENING SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE EAST ON
FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SATURDAY. A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO
SUNDAY.   

$$

PKZ041-240100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 23 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 32 FT
SUBSIDING TO 30 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-240100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 23 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 29 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 23 FT SUBSIDING
TO 21 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-240100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 23 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING
TO 28 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 23 FT SUBSIDING TO
19 FT LATE. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-240100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 23 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT BUILDING TO 26 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 20 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT LATE. SE SWELL LATE. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SE SWELL IN THE
MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-240100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 23 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT LATE. SE SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SE SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
347 PM AKST THU NOV 22 2012

.SHORT TERM...HIGH WIND EVENT FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TURNED
OUT TO BE NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS EXPECTED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.
HIGH WINDS IN THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AREA DID HOWEVER PAN OUT AS
FORECAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM FOR
MOST OF THE PANHANDLE AS THE SECOND WRAP ON THIS SYSTEM ROTATES
AROUND AND AFFECTS SOUTHEAST ALASKA ON FRIDAY. NO HIGH WIND
WATCHES OR WARNINGS AT THIS TIME, BUT DO EXPECT STRONG WINDS WITH
MANY LOCATIONS SEEING GUSTS TO 45 MPH. STORMS OVER THE INNER
CHANNELS AND COASTAL MARINE ZONES WINDING DOWN A BIT AS WELL, BUT
STILL HAVE GALE WARNINGS UP FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT YAKUTAT BAY AND
THE COAST FROM ICY BAY WEST TO CAPE SUCKLING. AIR TEMPS SLIGHTLY
WARMER AS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO HAVE INCLUDED FREEZING
SPRAY IN GLACIER BAY ONLY OVERNIGHT. STILL HAVE FREEZING SPRAY
THROUGH TOMORROW FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL. WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN
AN ISSUE FOR AVIATION INTEREST THROUGH AT LEAST THE NIGHT TONIGHT.

PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT HAS BEEN CONFINED TO A NARROW
BAND, WITH UP TO MODERATE RAIN OR SNOW AS IT PASSES BY. SO FAR, NO
SNOW TOTALS THAT JUSTIFY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, BUT SOME
LOCATIONS MAY SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION, TO HAVE MIXED PRECIP
SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND, RAIN SOUTH OF SUMNER STRAIT AND ALONG
ALL OF THE OUTER COAST, AND SNOW NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND ON THE
INSIDE.

MADE A FEW CHANGES TO EXISTING WIND GRIDS WITH NO CHANGE TO
PRESSURE GRIDS. UPDATED POP AND QPF WITH ECMWF AND GEM. NUDGED
TEMPS USING BIAS CORRECTED MOS. SNOW LEVELS ADJUSTED WITH GFS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...THE WIND EVENT DESCRIBED IN THE SHORT RANGE SECTION
ABOVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 960 MB LOW ABOUT 400 NM SW OF SITKA AT
THIS TIME. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE DRIFTING TOWARD THE
NE. AT 00Z SAT IS WILL BE 300 NM SW OF SITKA AT 980 MB, AND FILLING
IN TO 1002 MB 120 NM S OF SITKA AT 00Z SUN. THE FORECAST PACKAGE
HAS AN OVERALL DECREASE IN THE WINDS TAKING PLACE SAT, ALBEIT THE
FLOW OUTFLOW OF THE ARCTIC FROM THE YUKON WILL PERSIST.

THE MODELS HAVE A USEFUL CONSENSUS AND THE CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE. CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE ARE SMALL.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ026-028.
         STRONG WIND FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ026-028.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018-019-022-023-027.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ020.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ029.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-036-042-043.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ031>035-041-051>053.

&&

FRITSCH/JBT