Gale Warning 352, NWS Juneau, AK

801 
FZAK67 PAJK 231218
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 23 2012 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-240100-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 23 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEAKENING SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE EAST ON
FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SATURDAY. A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO
SUNDAY.   

$$

PKZ310-240100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 23 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT OR LESS. SW SWELL. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
347 PM AKST THU NOV 22 2012

.SHORT TERM...HIGH WIND EVENT FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TURNED
OUT TO BE NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS EXPECTED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.
HIGH WINDS IN THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AREA DID HOWEVER PAN OUT AS
FORECAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM FOR
MOST OF THE PANHANDLE AS THE SECOND WRAP ON THIS SYSTEM ROTATES
AROUND AND AFFECTS SOUTHEAST ALASKA ON FRIDAY. NO HIGH WIND
WATCHES OR WARNINGS AT THIS TIME, BUT DO EXPECT STRONG WINDS WITH
MANY LOCATIONS SEEING GUSTS TO 45 MPH. STORMS OVER THE INNER
CHANNELS AND COASTAL MARINE ZONES WINDING DOWN A BIT AS WELL, BUT
STILL HAVE GALE WARNINGS UP FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT YAKUTAT BAY AND
THE COAST FROM ICY BAY WEST TO CAPE SUCKLING. AIR TEMPS SLIGHTLY
WARMER AS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO HAVE INCLUDED FREEZING
SPRAY IN GLACIER BAY ONLY OVERNIGHT. STILL HAVE FREEZING SPRAY
THROUGH TOMORROW FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL. WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN
AN ISSUE FOR AVIATION INTEREST THROUGH AT LEAST THE NIGHT TONIGHT.

PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT HAS BEEN CONFINED TO A NARROW
BAND, WITH UP TO MODERATE RAIN OR SNOW AS IT PASSES BY. SO FAR, NO
SNOW TOTALS THAT JUSTIFY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, BUT SOME
LOCATIONS MAY SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION, TO HAVE MIXED PRECIP
SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND, RAIN SOUTH OF SUMNER STRAIT AND ALONG
ALL OF THE OUTER COAST, AND SNOW NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND ON THE
INSIDE.

MADE A FEW CHANGES TO EXISTING WIND GRIDS WITH NO CHANGE TO
PRESSURE GRIDS. UPDATED POP AND QPF WITH ECMWF AND GEM. NUDGED
TEMPS USING BIAS CORRECTED MOS. SNOW LEVELS ADJUSTED WITH GFS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...THE WIND EVENT DESCRIBED IN THE SHORT RANGE SECTION
ABOVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 960 MB LOW ABOUT 400 NM SW OF SITKA AT
THIS TIME. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE DRIFTING TOWARD THE
NE. AT 00Z SAT IS WILL BE 300 NM SW OF SITKA AT 980 MB, AND FILLING
IN TO 1002 MB 120 NM S OF SITKA AT 00Z SUN. THE FORECAST PACKAGE
HAS AN OVERALL DECREASE IN THE WINDS TAKING PLACE SAT, ALBEIT THE
FLOW OUTFLOW OF THE ARCTIC FROM THE YUKON WILL PERSIST.

THE MODELS HAVE A USEFUL CONSENSUS AND THE CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE. CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE ARE SMALL.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ026-028.
         STRONG WIND FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ026-028.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018-019-022-023-027.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ020.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ029.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-036-042-043.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ031>035-041-051>053.

&&

FRITSCH/JBT