Small Craft Advisory 9, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Jan 3, 2012, 4:00 AM AKST (13:00 UTC)

Expired

Jan 3, 2012, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

202 
FZAK52 PAJK 031256
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 3 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-040100-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 3 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN
SOUTHEAST ALASKA TODAY AND WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
TONIGHT. A 975 MB LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF
WEDNESDAY. 

$$

PKZ041-040100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 3 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT LATE. RAIN. 
.WED...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-040100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 3 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 30 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-040100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 3 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-040100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 3 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW LATE. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS
AND PASSES. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-040100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 3 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Jan 2, 4:57 PM AKST, 11 hours 3 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
457 PM AKST MON JAN 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...A COMPLEX LOW EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE FIRST NORTHBOUND WAVE ON THE FRONTAL BAND
WILL BE HEADED NORTH AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY
TUESDAY...AND TO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AIR
MASS BEING MOVED IN IS MUCH WARMER SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION
GENERALLY RAIN OVER THE FAR SOUTH EXCEPT FOR THE HYDER AREA.
NORTHERN PORTIONS AND INNER CHANNEL REGIONS WILL BE A SNOW OR MIX
AND THAT WILL BE SPREADING NORTH. EXPECT THAT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ON TUESDAY TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES GENERALLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
PANHANDLE WHERE IT MANAGES TO ACCUMULATE.

 GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING FOR MARINE ZONES OVER THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATER AND SOME OF COMMON INNER CHANNEL ZONES (22..33..36).
SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONT FOR THE EXPOSED CAPE
OF THE COASTAL AREAS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO CROSS SOUND.

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE MODELS WERE STRUGGLING FOR CONSISTENCY
WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO THE INTENSITY OF SYSTEMS RATHER
THAN THE POSITION. THE GFS IS PREDICTING A STORM DEVELOPING IN THE
EASTERN GULF NEAR DIXON ENTRANCE ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE EC AND OTHER
MODELS WERE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE. AT
THIS POINT THE OPERATIONAL GFS LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLIER...HOWEVER TWO
RUNS IN A ROW HAVE PREDICTED THIS STORM SO IT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF GFS AND EC AS A COMPROMISE
WHICH STILL PRODUCED A MODERATE LOW AND GALES ALONG THE OUTER
COAST OF SE AK AND SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK MODELS MOVE ANOTHER LOW INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLES
SHOW THE GREATEST SPREAD FOCUSED AROUND THE CENTER OF LEADING LOW
WHICH AGAIN SUGGESTS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT INTENSITY.
BY THE WEEKEND THE EC AND GFS BOTH DEVELOP A STRONG SYSTEM THAT
MOVES INTO THE GULF BUT THERE IS MORE SPREAD RELATED TO POSITIONAL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE SYSTEM.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW OVER MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE EXTREME SOUTH...AS THE LOW APPROACHES. BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO RAIN AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTH AND WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE. A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND TUESDAY MORNING FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ022-023.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-036-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031-032-034-035-051-052.

&&

BEZENEK/CFD

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2012Every small craft advisory in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.