Gale Warning 30, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Jan 3, 2012, 4:00 AM AKST (13:00 UTC)

Expired

Jan 3, 2012, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

986 
FZAK51 PAJK 031306
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 3 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-040100-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 3 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN
SOUTHEAST ALASKA TODAY AND WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
TONIGHT. A 975 MB LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF
WEDNESDAY. 

$$

PKZ011-040100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 3 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW...RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-040100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 3 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. 
.WED...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT...DIMINISHING AND BECOMING S LATE. SEAS 4
FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW...THEN RAIN. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-040100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 3 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S LATE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-040100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 3 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-040100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 3 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT LATE. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-040100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 3 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 7 FT. SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-040100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 3 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-040100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 3 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-040100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 3 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-040100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 3 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN...MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-040100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 3 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT...EXCEPT 14 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Jan 2, 4:57 PM AKST, 11 hours 3 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
457 PM AKST MON JAN 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...A COMPLEX LOW EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE FIRST NORTHBOUND WAVE ON THE FRONTAL BAND
WILL BE HEADED NORTH AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY
TUESDAY...AND TO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AIR
MASS BEING MOVED IN IS MUCH WARMER SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION
GENERALLY RAIN OVER THE FAR SOUTH EXCEPT FOR THE HYDER AREA.
NORTHERN PORTIONS AND INNER CHANNEL REGIONS WILL BE A SNOW OR MIX
AND THAT WILL BE SPREADING NORTH. EXPECT THAT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ON TUESDAY TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES GENERALLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
PANHANDLE WHERE IT MANAGES TO ACCUMULATE.

 GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING FOR MARINE ZONES OVER THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATER AND SOME OF COMMON INNER CHANNEL ZONES (22..33..36).
SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONT FOR THE EXPOSED CAPE
OF THE COASTAL AREAS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO CROSS SOUND.

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE MODELS WERE STRUGGLING FOR CONSISTENCY
WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO THE INTENSITY OF SYSTEMS RATHER
THAN THE POSITION. THE GFS IS PREDICTING A STORM DEVELOPING IN THE
EASTERN GULF NEAR DIXON ENTRANCE ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE EC AND OTHER
MODELS WERE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE. AT
THIS POINT THE OPERATIONAL GFS LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLIER...HOWEVER TWO
RUNS IN A ROW HAVE PREDICTED THIS STORM SO IT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF GFS AND EC AS A COMPROMISE
WHICH STILL PRODUCED A MODERATE LOW AND GALES ALONG THE OUTER
COAST OF SE AK AND SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK MODELS MOVE ANOTHER LOW INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLES
SHOW THE GREATEST SPREAD FOCUSED AROUND THE CENTER OF LEADING LOW
WHICH AGAIN SUGGESTS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT INTENSITY.
BY THE WEEKEND THE EC AND GFS BOTH DEVELOP A STRONG SYSTEM THAT
MOVES INTO THE GULF BUT THERE IS MORE SPREAD RELATED TO POSITIONAL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE SYSTEM.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW OVER MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE EXTREME SOUTH...AS THE LOW APPROACHES. BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO RAIN AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTH AND WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE. A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND TUESDAY MORNING FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ022-023.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-036-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031-032-034-035-051-052.

&&

BEZENEK/CFD

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2012Every gale warning in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.