Small Craft Advisory 83, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Jan 29, 2012, 4:00 AM AKST (13:00 UTC)

Expired

Jan 29, 2012, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

348 
FZAK52 PAJK 291246
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-300100-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
 A 984 MB LOW CENTER 225 NM SW OF CAPE DECISION WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY NE. THIS LOW WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE SUN EVENING. A MODERATE STRENGTH FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE EASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE SW ON MON. 

$$

PKZ041-300100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. S SWELL. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW LATE. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL.
RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. RAIN...SNOW.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-300100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. S SWELL. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. S
SWELL. 
.MON...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-300100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. S SWELL IN THE MORNING. RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW LATE. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-300100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT E ALONG
COAST. OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES...GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT LATE...EXCEPT SE ALONG
COAST. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-300100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT NE ALONG COAST. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING
TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT NE ALONG COAST...BECOMING SE 10 KT
LATE. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Jan 28, 1:29 PM AKST, 14 hours 31 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
129 PM AKST SAT JAN 28 2012

.SHORT TERM...DAY SHIFT FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE USUAL SNOW
AMOUNT AND FINDING AND TRACKING RAIN/SNOW LINE. FIRST...STRUGGLED
TO RECONCILE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH MODEL INITIALIZATION AT 28/12Z
THIS MORNING BUT FORTUNATELY THERE WERE JUST ENOUGH SHIP OBS TO
SHOW THAT THE MAIN LOW CENTER IS AT 52N 147W AT 18Z AROUND 980 MB.
CLOSEST MODEL 28/12Z IS AK-GFS-40 WITH A SECOND CENTER NEAR UPR
VORT-MAX 52N 138W. USED MSLP FORECASTS FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT WAS
JUST FINE...BUT UPPER DYNAMICS AND SREF POPS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
A LITTLE FARTHER N AND W OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS...SO MENTION OF
SNOW FOR HOONAH AND JUNEAU SUNDAY. ALSO COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
FILTER IN AT LOW LEVELS WRANGELL NORTH AND COLD AIR TRAPPED AT
HYDER FOR A WINTER STORM WARNING THERE. HAD TO UP THE SNOW AMOUNTS
FOR PSG-WRG-KAKE-ANGOON TODAY AND TONIGHT FORECASTING THAT IT WILL
NOT CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ...BUT PAWG HINTS AT NEAR RAIN ATTM. FIVE
FINGER WIND DIRECTION REMAINS NORTH WHICH WILL HELP TO CONTINUE
THE SNOW.

.LONG TERM...MODELS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON SYSTEM THAT
WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA SUN NIGHT...BUT STILL HAVE IMPORTANT
DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR NW PRECIP WILL GET. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
SHARP OF A MID-LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS TO THE SW OF THE AREA AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. BASED ON A MODEL AVERAGE AND THEIR
TRENDS...LOOKS LIKE NW EDGE OF PRECIP WILL GET TO ABOUT 30 NM NW
OF A PAJN-PAOH LINE...AND PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AS
YOU MOVE SE INTO THE PRECIP SHIELD. HAVE SHIFTED THE HIGHER POPS
FURTHER NWWD TO REFLECT THIS IDEA...AND ALSO SHOW A FAIRLY TIGHT
QPF GRADIENT ON THE NW SIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. GIVEN THAT THE
NWRN PART OF THE PRECIP WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN SNOW...THIS COULD
LEAD TO ADVY OR LOW END WARNING SNOWFALL IN THE PAJN/PAOH AND
POSSIBLY PAGN AREAS SUN NIGHT. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIANCE ON QPF IN
THOSE AREAS THOUGH...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE ANY WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THOSE AREAS ATTM.

 DID NOT MAKE CHANGES TO WIND AND PRESSURE FIELDS AS THEY STILL
LOOKED REASONABLE FOR THE FIRST SYSTEM SUN NIGHT...AND MODEL
DIFFERENCES FURTHER OUT MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO CHANGE AFTER
MON PERIOD. DID SLOW DOWN THE NEXT PRECIP BAND A BIT FOR
MON...AND THAT BLENDED WELL INTO THE LEFT ALONE MON NIGHT PERIOD.
SHOULD SEE A DECENT PRECIP BREAK BETWEEN THE SUN NIGHT AND MON
SYSTEMS. TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE A SLOW WARMING TREND OVER THE
SRN AND COASTAL AREAS...WHILE THE N REMAINS A LITTLE COOLER FOR
MON. FOR MID-LATE WEEK LOOKING LIKE WARMER TEMPS MOVING IN...AND
POSSIBLY A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
WHICH COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS IN AREAS WITH EXTREME SNOW DEPTHS.
STAY TUNED...

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ024-026.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ029.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>036-042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041.

&&

JC/RWT

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2012Every small craft advisory in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.